Challenge Mountain Snow Report

525 FXUS63 KAPX 200715 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 315 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Patchy fog and lingering drizzle continue this morning. -High pressure will support quiet and dry weather this week. -Seasonably normal fall-like temperatures build this week with overnight lows creating frost/freeze concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Pattern Synopsis: The current weak midlevel troughing regime continues to break down this morning as an upstream split flow pattern begins to build across most of the CONUS. As a result, a broad ridging pattern occupies the northern U.S., while low amplitude troughing keeps warm low-level temperatures south of the CWA. At the surface, high pressure begins to break down overnight, delivering light rainfall and patchy morning fog, resulting in beautiful fall weather this afternoon through the remainder of the week. High temperatures remain around normal for mid to late September, with most days expected to be in the 60s but cool overnight lows will fall into the 40s and upper 30s. Forecast Details: Conditions remain mostly cloudy today as surface low pressure remains positioned over central Indiana. Showers are mostly expected to remain south of the CWA, but southernmost counties could observe an additional trace of rainfall accompanied by some patchy morning fog. Post-frontal pressure gradient force winds will clear out low-level moisture and build breezy northeast winds today. High pressure begins to build across the Great Lakes region this Monday through the remainder of the week. This pattern will support quiet and dry conditions through the next several days. H8 temperatures in the single digits will keep daytime highs in the 60s. Only concerning weather to monitor will be sufficient overnight radiational cooling causing overnight lows to drop into the low 40s and upper 30s. Coldest night be Monday night where interior areas/elevated terrain will likely observe lows near freezing, potentially leading to frost. No precipitation potential is expected through the entirety of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Light showers will continue to track from west to east across the lower peninsula tonight, ending by Sunday morning. Associated IFR/low MVFR CIGs are also expected to persist across areas closer to mid Michigan -- particularly MBL and TVC -- and eventually lift Sunday morning/early afternoon, returning all areas to VFR through the remainder of the issuance period. Light/calm winds tonight will increase out of the northeast Sunday morning to around 10 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts at times during the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ346-347. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ348-349. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...DJC