Challenge Mountain snow report

216 FXUS63 KAPX 120746 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds lead to high swim risks today and Saturday... - Rain/storms today and Saturday; some strong Saturday? - Much cooler Sunday into Early Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Northwest flow across the western US...with several embedded PV maxima in the flow from British Columbia through the Canadian Prairies and into the Upper Midwest...with a PV max lifting through WI last evening...as a 100+kt upper jet tracks through the flow from the PacNW to the Mid MS Valley into central Ontario. 543dm upper low centered over Manitoba/Ontario, with additional trough axis stretching into Hudson Bay. Sharp ridge over the eastern US with a disturbance embedded over the Mid-Atlantic. Plume of better absolute moisture (pwats at or above 1in) extends from the Southern Plains into Michigan, immediately ahead of the trough axis aloft...as ridging sits over the SE US, aiding in continued return flow aloft. Meanwhile, in the lower levels, flow is becoming northwesterly across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest in the wake of a cold front draped from James Bay to central WI down into Oklahoma as of 4z; 850mb temps falling below +10C behind this, with a couple more trough axes/cold fronts over the Upper Midwest. Even colder air and with strengthening northerly flow poised across central Canada northwest of aforementioned upper low...behind a 985mb surface low over northeast Manitoba. Convection continues to cross Michigan...both remnants of earlier convective complex that brought a fair bit of activity to southwest Michigan, and some activity immediately ahead of the front...with the bulk of the rainfall from the western UP up into Ontario along the deformation axis with this system. Shortwave trough axis swings through today...leaving zonal flow in its wake tonight. However...additional energy will transit the perimeter of the upper trough from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes on Saturday as the upper low tries to sneak southward into central Ontario...allowing a boundary to slowly sink south through the area, likely reaching the OH Valley by Sunday morning...as a sharper niblet of energy reaches the Upper Midwest. Currently expecting this to swing through during the day Sunday...with another lobe of PV dropping south Sunday night into Monday, which could try to hook up with a niblet of energy over the central Plains. Broad troughing looks to settle into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes for the first part of next week with cooler weather on tap, though there is a bit of uncertainty regarding position of niblets transiting the flow. A fair bit of uncertainty for the mid-late part of next week as a bit of energy runs over the PacNW ridging and heads across the northern tier of the continent with attendant cyclogenesis at the surface...which could signal potential for a period of active weather. FORECAST DETAILS... Periods of gusty winds and moderate-high swim risks through Saturday...generally expecting sustained winds to run about 5-10kts through the bulk of the next 48-72hrs, but could be a little more feisty (5-15kts) on Saturday ahead of approaching boundary/PV maximum. Could be a bit gusty at times, generally in the 20-30kt range Friday, perhaps even right on through Friday night if we are able to stay better mixed. Appears winds pick up aloft ahead of the aforementioned PV maximum and think some gusts in the 30-40kt realm are possible, even as early as early Saturday morning as that boundary slips in. Currently appears this will sink through the region and wash out a bit as it does so...with potential for winds to go a bit more light and variable later Saturday into Saturday night, which could favor lake breezes in the late afternoon if background flow diminishes early enough, and land breezes during the overnight hours. Primary concern with winds will be the development of moderate to high swim risks with increased wave action at many of our beaches Friday and Saturday...perhaps even into Sunday as well, with gusts of 20-30kts possible yet again. Storm/rain potential today into the weekend...Expect some showers/storms to be ongoing this morning into midday with the shortwave trough axis swinging through, and potential for redevelopment this afternoon, especially across the EUP and Tip of the Mitt regions (possibly a bit further south?) with the trough axis still in the area and the left exit region of a jet aloft in the vicinity. Surface pressure pattern also appears rather wavy, and suspect some kind of mesoscale perturbation (gravity waves? influence of cooler lakes/warmer land?) will be in play. Diurnal heating likely in play as temps cool aloft (esp toward that Tip of the Mitt/EUP vicinity) suggests we should destabilize through the day, especially later this afternoon; potential for 500-1000J/kg of surface-based CAPE, and perhaps a little more across the Yoop, esp if better diurnal heating is realized with better cooling aloft. While we shouldn`t be quite as moist as the previous couple days...think some moisture will hang around, noting pwats could remain as high as an inch through this evening; some potential for skinny CAPE and warm cloud layers still flirting with 3km could signal some more robust rainfall totals wherever storms persist. Not a ton of deep layer shear present, and think activity will likely be of the popcorn/pulse type vs organized, but could produce some sub- severe gusty winds; perhaps a little more in the way of hail (and maybe lightning) given the freezing level should be coming down a bit today. Saturday... appears some activity may try to sneak in along the boundary from the west late Friday night into early Saturday. Have concerns this could lead to increased cloud cover and diminished diurnal heating/instability for storms later in the day (could focus this further southward than currently anticipated)...though guidance soundings suggest it could rather moisten the environment and make things a little more favorable for later-day activity, assuming some breaks in the clouds. This early day activity may be more of a heavy rain threat, noting signals for better saturation through the column and potential for cell motion to be parallel to the boundary and thus track over similar areas through the morning, possibly into the afternoon. Pwats should be on the high end again, perhaps cranking up toward 1.25 inches along the boundary; do note some small signals in probabilistic guidance for an inch of rain in 24hrs across some portion of the area Saturday. If clouds break and diurnal heating ramps up in the afternoon, could see a little more vigorous development, noting signals for Surface- based CAPE around 1000J/kg if this occurs. Primary focus for afternoon activity should be along this boundary and any lake breezes that manage to develop; guidance signals a couple areas of interest -- one across the length of the EUP, and another across NE Lower MI. Stronger winds aloft suggest deep layer shear should be better as well, perhaps all day long, which could lead to storms becoming a little better organized vs today; some signals for a bit drier layer in the mid-levels in the afternoon could suggest damaging wind as a threat with any afternoon storms. Conditions are, as usual, a touch better on the other side of the lake with a more steadfast tap of warm, moist air up the MS Valley through the day, and will not be surprised if some activity develops upstream and tries to cross the Lake during the afternoon...though not impossible any convective complex forms to our south/stays south and keeps things from getting too crazy up here (par for the northern Michigan course). Cooler early next week...0C isotherm looks to swipe northern Michigan Sunday, suggesting temps may struggle to get into the mid 60s, especially with potential for clouds/rain around with a PV slipping through. (Would not be surprised if some parts of the EUP end up struggling to break 60.) Rather like late September than mid June. The cool idea should persist into at least Monday and perhaps Tuesday, pending the evolution of niblets in the flow...with signals for some return flow (maybe?) ahead of a more potent niblet for midweek. For now, appears there will be enough perturbations and potential moisture around to keep overnight lows from tanking too deeply...but low to mid 40s are likely, especially for the interior, at least Sunday night into Monday, and perhaps Monday night into Tuesday as well. If we end up with more aggressive ridging/drying either of these days, with high pressure/weak pressure gradient more firmly overhead...suspect it`s not impossible a few of the typical cold spots could drop into the upper 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1119 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Showers with a few embedded storms will exit early this morning. Still expecting a least a brief period of MVFR to IFR producing cigs to spread across most taf location behind this departing rain. Low cigs should mix out quickly this morning, leaving behind increasing amounts of sunshine. Mainly clear skies expected to continue into this evening. Winds become west to southwest today, remaining quite gusty at times. Winds diminish this evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ025-031- 088. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LMZ341- 346. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344-345. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321- 322. && $$ DISCUSSION...FEF AVIATION...MSB