Challenge Mountain snow report

639 FXUS63 KAPX 200624 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 224 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Seasonably cool temperatures and quiet weather return today through the rest of the work week. -Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight and Thursday night. -Temperatures slowly build through the rest of the week into early next week with periodic chances of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Pattern Synopsis: A 500mb troughing pattern begins to break down and progress northeast this morning as a somewhat zonal flow positions itself over Northern Michigan. Post-frontal northwest flow at the surface will draw a cool cP air influence into the Great Lakes Region, resulting in seasonably cool temperatures and overall quiet weather through the remainder of the work week. Conditions turn more active this weekend as low-amplitude shortwave troughing develops over the Canadian Rockies until it reaches the central U.S. and then lifts through the Great Lakes Region. Disheveled surface low pressure will provide enough energy to return some scattered showers around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. The remainder of the forecast period will remain relatively quiet as upstream ridging returns subsidence aloft and surface high pressure settles over the central U.S. with temperatures building above normal for late May. Forecast Details: Today through Friday...Post frontal northwest flow will build cold and quiet weather across the Northwoods. Surface highs will be below normal for this time period as the coldest day (today) will only reach highs in the mid 50s to low 60s for most areas. The only concern at this time period is the chilly overnight temperatures falling into the mid to low 30s. Temperatures will be near freezing as cloud cover clears late, which impacts the true efficiency of overnight radiational cooling processes. Areas along the interior northern lower and eastern upper will likely observe a short period of temperatures at or below freezing while areas closer to lakes remain slightly warmer. Saturday and Sunday...The previously mentioned shortwave will return light shower chances this weekend as guidance depicts low pressure tracking through the Mississippi Valley across Michigan. With weakening upper level dynamics combined with the strongest forcing to our south, highest probabilities remain below a quarter inch for the entire event. Nevertheless, light stratiform rain this Saturday and lingering moisture behind the system provide less than ideal weather for the holiday weekend. Monday and Tuesday Outlook...Upstream ridging pattern originating from the southwest and progressing across the county will support a gradual rise in temperatures across the Great Lakes region. Southerly air influence combined with diurnal heating processes will return high temperatures to the 70s and 80s across the CWA. Subsidence aloft will return high pressure, keeping precipitation chances minimal next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Some pockets of lingering sub-VFR CIGs over the next several hours for parts of northern MI, but a return to VFR expected area-wide by daybreak this morning. Occasionally breezy northwest winds through Wednesday before winds turn light/variable tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>348. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321- 322. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...MJG