Greek Peak Ski Resort Snow Report

063 FXUS61 KBGM 170604 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 204 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continuing to update smoke coverage based on the latest HRRR guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near-surface smoke will remain present into Friday but push more southwestward and thin out. Smoke may return this weekend. 2) A low pressure system will bring thunderstorms to the region Saturday. Some storms may become severe primarily west of I-81. Locally heavy rain will also be possible. 3) Temperatures will be near average throughout next week with showers and storms returning around midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Steering winds aloft will trend slightly more to the north late tonight and Friday with the smoke plume expected to shift south across most of the area. The latest HRRR and RAP models clearly show these smoke trends which should allow for a brief respite from the pollution especially across Central NY and the Western Catskills. The western and central Southern Tier, and parts of NEPA may stay just within the slightly thicker edge of the smoke. Smoke is then expected to lift back into the all areas on Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. An Air Quality Alert will remain in effect for NEPA until midnight Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2... An upper-level wave will move through the Great Lakes region and intensify an area of low pressure on Saturday. A warm front will lift north in the morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The area should then destabilize into the afternoon with CAPE values nearing 1500 J/kg and deep layer bulk shear values around 40 kts. A surface cold front will act as a trigger for an additional round of thunderstorms during the afternoon which may become organized within this environment. Weaker mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor for widespread severe activity. The latest SPC Outlook continues the Marginal Risk for a large portion of the area, but a Slight Risk has been introduced for the central Southern Tier, Western Finger Lakes and portions of NE PA where the maximum instability will coincide with best shear. The environment will also be excessively moist with this system as PWATs will be as high as 2 inches which is slightly above normal deep moisture levels for this time of year. Antecedent conditions indicate mainly dry soils and smaller stream channels with low flows on most other watercourses. WPC has painted the region within a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook which is a good indicator of the main flood risk focusing on urban drainage areas and small town storm drain networks. Much of the rural area is drier than normal and will take a significant amount of concentrated and prolonged rain rates for channelized flash flooding. All of this expected weather activity should disrupt and move the smoke out of the region for Sunday. High pressure then builds into the area through Monday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures throughout next week will generally be near or even slightly below normal. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday with the passage of another combination frontal system sweeping across the region. Significant deep moisture returns ahead of this system with the potential for locally heavy rain again as showers and storms develop. A broad trough of low pressure sets up again across eastern Canada with the upper flow becoming established out of the northwest which may result in the wildfire smoke returning to the area toward the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Wildfire smoke continues to be the main weather impact across our terminals tonight into the morning hours. A current mix of MVFR and VFR will continue through the night, with most terminals (except RME) seeing MVFR visby tonight into the early morning hours. A weak front will push through early in the morning, kicking most of the smoke out of CNY and NEPA. ELM and AVP will have the best chance at seeing some reduced visby in the afternoon as smoke works its way back into the area. VFR conditions are currently expected this evening into the early overnight hours. Outlook: Friday night into early Saturday...Wildfire smoke may lift back north into the area with associated visibility restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR. The rest of Saturday into Sunday morning...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAB AVIATION...JTC