Indianhead Mountain Resort Snow Report

157 FXUS63 KILX 140758 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 258 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish toward areas south of I-72 today as a cold front migrates southward, also bringing considerably cooler conditions to the area. - Another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may accompany a strong cold front late Thursday afternoon and evening. The most recent SPC outlook highlights locations near and south of the I-72 corridor. - Much cooler weather will settle into the region Friday through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A cold front currently between the I-55 and I-57 corridors in central IL early this morning will continue to migrate southward today, likely passing I-70 by noon, but likely stalling out before I- 64 late today through tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity will follow the frontal zone, for PoPs decreasing in northern portions of the forecast area today. A disturbance tracking along the front will bring another intense period of widespread storm activity to southeast IL during the morning hours today, then a general lull in activity will take place this afternoon through evening. With 30-40 kts of deep layer shear and several hundred J/kg SBCAPE forecast, storms south of I-70 through this afternoon could have the potential to produce severe wind gusts to 60 mph. SPC continues a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in this area today. Precipitation amounts will be generally light except for southeast IL, where amounts around a half inch can be expected in general, although high resolution ensembles indicate potential for isolated 2 inch rainfall in thunderstorms. WPC continues a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from around I-70 southward. On Thursday, a surface low will will develop along the stalled frontal boundary in the southern Plains early in the morning and move through central IL during the afternoon. This feature should be coincident with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear and 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. This should be sufficient for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, and SPC has areas near and south of I-72 delineated for a Marginal Risk. Rainfall looks to be generally a half to one inch, but with perhaps a narrow corridor or two of 2 inch rainfall accumulations. WPC continues a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for most of the area. Once the low ejects northeast of the area Friday night, a strong cold front will sweep through the area, bringing much cooler air to the region and gusty northwest winds. Precipitation will also taper off, but a few light showers can`t be ruled out Friday as a strong upper level shortwave rotates through the area. Following this shortwave, several dry days are on track Saturday through at least early next week. Temperatures today will be down considerably from yesterday`s record high temperatures, with around 67 in Galesburg to around 80 in Lawrenceville as the front migrates south of the area and cloudy and/or rainy conditions suppress temperature rises. Similar highs are expected Thursday, before plummeting temperatures arrive for Friday. Highs should be mainly between 55 and 60 both Friday and Saturday, with lows dipping into the upper 30s both Friday night and Saturday night. Models center high pressure to the west Friday night, suggesting that western areas will be more prone to light winds and resulting cold pockets/areas of frost, then the high migrates just to the east Saturday night, suggesting eastern areas will be more vulnerable. Temperatures will begin to rebound strongly starting Sunday as the high migrates east and southerly flow begins. Highs should approach 70 Sunday, and trend upward a few degrees per day through the first half of next work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Convection is currently moving eastward, expected to reach KBMI around 06z, though an overall weakening trend will continue as the storms push east. Wind gusts 30-40 knots are likely with the strongest storms going through KBMI and perhaps KDEC. KSPI currently gusting to 40 knots with the outflow, but this will be out before the TAF valid time. Getting later into Wednesday morning, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over northern Illinois after 12z, pushing south into the central Illinois terminals between 15-18z. Ceilings near or just below 2,000 feet should then prevail into the evening, with improvement to VFR expected toward 02-03z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...37 DISCUSSION...37 AVIATION...Geelhart