Indianhead Mountain Resort Snow Report

184 FXUS63 KILX 240829 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 329 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather will prevail for the next several days before a pattern change brings unsettled conditions and the potential for thunderstorms by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Despite the presence of a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec to the southern Plains, central Illinois remains locked in overcast conditions early this morning. Persistent boundary layer moisture continues to be trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion and the E/NE low-level flow is doing little to nothing to help scour it out. Unfortunately with the overall synoptic pattern changing very little and surface winds expected to maintain an easterly component, prospects for widespread/lasting clearing remain dim through the upcoming weekend. As an upper low evident on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over the Appalachians tracks slowly eastward and deepens, it will serve as an effective block to any systems crossing the central U.S. through the weekend. An initial short-wave trough across the Dakotas will lift northeastward over the next 24-36 hours. The tail end of this feature will bring weak synoptic lift into the western KILX CWA tonight into Saturday. While deep-layer moisture will be limited, most models suggest widely-scattered light showers developing in the Illinois River Valley. Once the first wave passes well to the north, a stronger wave currently over Baja California will approach from the southwest on Saturday. This feature will weaken as it approaches an upper ridge locked in place along/east of the Mississippi River: however, it appears a few showers could spread as far east as I-55...especially Saturday night into early Sunday before the wave dissipates. 00z Sep 24 synoptic models are in excellent agreement through 96 hours (00z Mon), then solutions diverge significantly next week. All models show a high-amplitude wave coming onshore along the West Coast on Sunday: however, both the ECMWF and GEM further amplify the wave into a closed low over the Desert Southwest Monday-Wednesday, Meanwhile the GFS and GFS Ensemble maintain a more progressive open wave that quickly traverses the country and swings into central Illinois Wednesday into Thursday. Current teleconnections forecast from both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS suggest the AO and NAO will become negative early next week, which is supportive of an amplified pattern. Exactly how amplified remains in question at this point. Current NBM features rain chances arriving as early as Tuesday. If the slower/more amplified ECMWF/GEM verify, precip will likely be delayed until Wednesday...then may linger through the end of the week as the wave only slowly approaches from the southwest. At this point, expect a benign forecast across central Illinois through the weekend with temperatures climbing well into the 70s/lower 80s by Monday/Tuesday. After that, things will become more unsettled and thunderstorm chances will return to the picture at some point during the Tuesday through Friday time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026 High pressure will be in place over Quebec with ridging extending back across the Upper Midwest through the period. This will result in a modest NE/E breeze across central Illinois. Meanwhile, low ceilings have once again spread west across central Illinois. The worst conditions are expected in the east with PIA again on the periphery of the low clouds and expected to be in and out of MVFR conditions. IFR is most likely in the east at BMI/DEC/CMI and may be accompanied by some patchy drizzle or mist at times. Conditions should slowly improve through the day Thursday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Barnes DISCUSSION...Barnes AVIATION...Deubelbeiss