Mad River Mountain Snow Report

740 FXUS63 KDTX 100632 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 232 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through this morning, then mainly dry conditions expected to persist through the rest of the day. - The chance of thunderstorms will exist tonight into Tuesday and again on Wednesday, with greater potential near the Ohio border. Isolated storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. - Dry weather is expected to end the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Little variation in the underlying environment will exist through the early week period, as conditions remain governed by a seasonably moist and unstable profile held within prevailing lower amplitude west-northwest upper level flow. Convective expansion underway upstream early this morning, tied to engagement of low level jet forcing into a stalled frontal zone and deeper instability reservoir. Observational and radar trends paired by latest CAMs guidance confirm expectation for some form of this activity to arrive locally thru mid morning, given sufficient elevated instability now in residence. Strongest cores will be capable of producing hail and brief heavy downpours. Dry conditions otherwise favored for most, if not all locations today. Tangible forcing remains elusive as greater evidence exists for meaningful ascent associated with minor perturbations lodged in the mean flow to hold just to the south late today and early tonight. There remains a lower probability outcome for the northern expanse of any northern Ohio valley activity to glance across areas generally south of I-94, with this corridor most susceptible given proximity to the main instability gradient. Enough bulk shear exists to afford some convective organization should this scenario emerge, with SPC highlighting this corridor for isolated strong wind/large hail potential. Seasonable temperatures peaking in the mid 80s. Conditional convective potential will exist both Tuesday and Wednesday, with the forecast tenuously relying on proper allocation of additional shortwaves and resulting MCS activity spilling east- southeast and across the local area versus holding to the south. Mixed signal exists each day on the possibility, with an unsurprisingly wide range of outcomes offered within the model spectrum. Outgoing forecast will continue to highlight a moderate probability for rainfall, with a focus for the late day period and greater potential with southward extent. Stagnant thermal profile means a continuation of highs in the lower to mid 80s. Amplified upper trough anchored over eastern Canada will lead to broader confluent northwest flow developing across the great lakes for the end of the work week. This will result in deep layer subsidence and mid level drying as a broad 1020+ mb anticyclone builds southeast into the region. This will provide a more discernible shift in storm track south of the area. Highs will edge slightly lower this period - highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. && .MARINE... A slow moving, stalled frontal boundary will impact the region through middle parts of the week, leaving varying wind directions at times and winds generally less than 20 knots. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible through mid-week, especially across Lake Erie where chances are greater for severe weather and strong thunderstorm winds. By mid to late week, a weakly organized area of low pressure becomes develops across the Northeast, followed by high pressure of 30.1 inches gradually dropping southeast across the central and eastern Great Lakes. This will favor an uptick in northwest winds Wednesday through Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1146 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 AVIATION... Another disturbance rippling along the front offers a chance for redeveloping showers/storms late tonight-early Monday morning. Models continue to struggle to handle this pattern so have introduced Prob30 chances to all terminals. A period of borderline MVFR ceilings follows for Monday morning before diurnal heating slowly scatters cloud cover. D21/DTW Convection... There is a chance for redeveloping showers/storms late tonight-early Monday morning over southern MI. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low to moderate for thunderstorms tonight. * Moderate for ceilings aob 5000ft Monday morning. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......JA AVIATION.....KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.