Mont Apic Snow Report

750 FXUS61 KBTV 030623 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 223 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 222 AM EDT Saturday... No significant changes made. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 222 AM EDT Saturday... 1. Generally cool weather is expected over the next several days. Sunday will be briefly warmer, but a front will cross on Monday bringing gusty winds, showers, and a return to the cooler weather. 2. Cold air mid week will moderate by the late week with a pattern change for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 222 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A broad 1028mb surface high will be positioned to our west over the Great Lakes region today. This will keep northerly flow across the region. Fortunately, the cool air coming in will be more of a glancing blow with zonal flow aloft. Still, it`ll feel plenty cool with highs lingering mainly in the 50s, except for a few 60s across south-central Vermont. Mountain summits will likely be in the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon. Abundant dry air will promote clear skies. We should radiate quite efficiently tonight with these conditions, and that will bring overnight lows in the 30- 40 F range. High pressure will start moving east Sunday, and south to southwest winds return. A more moderate day in the 60s is expected for Sunday, with a warmer night around 40-50 F. These warmer conditions will come with some wind, though as pressure gradients tighten against departing high pressure and the next approaching system. Anticipate 10-15 mph winds, and up to 20 mph in the Champlain Valley. The attendant frontal boundary will arrive pre-dawn through the early afternoon. The moisture is not great, but the dynamics of a strong upper jet and modest frontal support could produce a broken narrow line of rain. Larger synoptic scale motion will yield stronger winds behind this front. Combined with the strength of cold air behind it, the 50s forecast on Monday and 25-35 mph gusts across the region will feel nippy. Advective cold will result in mid 20s to upper 30s. The winds may still preclude frost formation in the Champlain Valley, but plenty cool. Moisture quickly departs behind the frontal boundary, but if there`s anything lingering, a few flakes or some riming is feasible for mountain terrain. KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northwest flow will continue through Tuesday with temperatures feeling solidly like fall, before our air mass moderates towards the weekend. Highs Tuesday will struggle to reach 50 in the higher terrain with low to mid 50s elsewhere with breezy northwest winds as our flow pattern remains fairly confluent. Skies will remain clear into Tuesday night with one of the coldest nights of the season expected. With a stout dry 700-500mb layer, strong radiational cooling will take place with many places falling into the low to mid 30s. Some patchy frost will be possible in the sheltered locations, but with temperatures falling under clear skies, almost the entire region could experience a freeze, with the Champlain valley remaining on alert at this time. This will likely be a curtain call for gardeners sensitive plants in the broad valleys. Temperatures will slowly moderate back up towards the weekend with the approach of a broad long wave trough associated with a deepening upper low over the Hudson Bay. Highs will warm to the upper 50s to mid 60s, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A large scale cyclonic gyre will shift south from the interior of Canada leading to several shortwave passages beginning late next week into the weekend. Daily diurnally enhanced showers will be possible starting Thursday with increasing cloud cover into the weekend. In addition to increasing shower chances, each shortwave passage will bring with it some breezy to gusty winds to northern New York, and likely some channeled flow in the Champlain Valley each day. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...A clearing cold front is currently pushing through the region from the northwest, with a mix of terminal conditions ahead of the front. Across Vermont, where the front is just approaching, antecedent valley fog is leading to MVFR-IFR visibility and cig reductions at EFK/RUT/MPV. In northern New York, mixing and the presence of a modest LLJ, behind the front, are helping scour out any fog at least for the next few hours. The LLJ may lead to some brief LLWS with 20- 30 knot winds associated with front axis. As the front moves through Vermont over the next few hours, expectations are that mixing and prevailing flow aloft should trend fog chances down with general improving terminal conditions towards VFR. Have used TEMPO groups at MPV/EFK to denote when fog should mix out with conditions improving towards VFR. RUT will likely see VCFG through 08Z, though confidence in the prevailing fog is low. As sites rebound to VFR by 09-10Z, some decoupling towards sunrise may lead to brief additional fog at SLK, though confidence is low with a only a TEMPO used. Beyond 12Z, all terminals are expected to return to VFR with calmer and quiet conditions. Light north winds 10 knots or less are expected through the daylight hours. Winds will trend calm after sunset tonight with fog expected at the climo favored terminals beyond 04Z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes DISCUSSION...Haynes/Danzig AVIATION...Danzig