Mont Gleason Snow Report

183 FXUS61 KBTV 050716 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 216 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 216 AM EST Thursday... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 216 AM EST Thursday... 1. Showers will be widespread through early afternoon, and then more scattered towards evening when a rumble of thunder is possible. 2. Some additional showers are expected over the weekend as temperatures gradually return closer to normal. 3. Somewhat unsettled weather is expected for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 216 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Anomalous moisture, with PWAT more than 200% of normal, and likely near record for the date per Albany, NY sounding climatology, will be present today as a slug of showers slides northeastward across the region this morning. Despite this impressive moisture and very warm air in place, rainfall looks meager as forcing for ascent is weak given a lagging shortwave trough and lack of frontogenesis. That said, low to mid-level lapse rates look to be sufficient for some instability and brief downpours in some of the showers, especially towards midday which helps southern and eastern portions of Vermont have better odds of these heavier showers. Think these will be brief such that total rainfall amounts in a given hour will at most be about 0.25" and mainly up to 0.1". After this swath of showers and deep moisture exits to our east, partial clearing will support some warm season type of heating and skinny CAPE profiles that bring us a non-zero chance of thunderstorms towards evening. HRRR/RRFS guidance has been consistent in showing a broken line of showers forming in northern New York and gradually translating eastward with increasing MUCAPE, progged to reach about 200-300 J/kg. Chances of thunder in the calibrated REFS data is surprisingly high in far northern Vermont (around 30-40%) based on this CAPE. Greatest chances of a rumble of thunder appears to be during the mid- afternoon near Route 11 in northern New York and then during the evening in eastern Franklin County in Vermont. Most of the remainder of the night, aside from this possible cluster of showers exiting to the east, will be dry and mild. Much of Friday continues to look dry and unseasonably warm despite being a bit cooler than today. KEY MESSAGE 2: We continue to expect an unsettled weather pattern for the weekend, as a closed upper level low ambles eastward from the eastern Great Lakes Friday night into the Gulf of Maine by Sunday afternoon. Its slow movement will provide a prolonged period of shower chances across the region, but it remains hard to pinpoint where/when rain showers will pivot across a particular location. Generally Saturday afternoon through Saturday night looks like the timeframe where showers should be most abundant over northern New York and Vermont given the proximity of this system, and the track will favor southern portions of our region with regards to rainfall amounts. While a big soaking rain is not expected, a wetting rainfall of 0.25" through the weekend has increased a bit to a 50-65% chance, while rainfall in excess of 1" is now about 10-15%, except 20-25% in portions of western Vermont in the Winooski and Mad River Valleys and the western Adirondack region. With the expected low pressure track, we also should see some increasing northerly flow towards late Saturday but there isn`t much cold air to advect in. Most guidance shows 850 millibar temperatures too warm for snow, but at this point have indicated marginally cold conditions for some snow to mix in with the rain at our higher elevations in New York before precipitation ends given uncertainty in the upper level low track/strength. KEY MESSAGE 3: Although there remains differences in model solutions, overall we look to remain under cyclonic flow for much of next week. The GFS does try to build ridging in briefly for Mon/Mon night, but this is not supported by either the ECMWF or CMC deterministic solutions, which have multiple shortwaves rotating around upper low pressure centered to our north. Timing of these differ as well, so while there will likely be some dry days, have stayed with WPC/NBM PoPs which give chances for showers through much of the week, especially over the higher terrain. Highs in the 40s/50s mean showers should be rain during the day, but overnight lows near or below freezing could allow rain to mix with/change over to snow overnight, especially in the mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to last through the night. An organized round of showers will move through from west to east, starting at MSS around 11Z. They will then reach EFK by around 14-15Z. They will last a couple hours and then exit, with a lingering isolated shower or two possible behind. For most cases, they will not be heavy enough to significantly reduce the visibility, though a brief occurrence of MVFR will still be possible. As the showers move in, ceilings will begin to lower. By around 18-21Z, they should be MVFR for most terminals. LLWS is expected at MSS and RUT for periods of the night, and while it may not hit formal criteria elsewhere, it will still be strong. Winds will generally be around and under 10 KT tonight from the south and southwest. During the day tomorrow, they will increase into the 10-20 KT range for most terminals, with gusts to 25 KT possible at BTV, PBG and MSS. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today on the broad lake. South winds currently are likely 20 to 30 knots, expected to peak early this morning prior to rain arriving. After a lull during the rain, winds will likely pick up again for a few hours, likely after 2 PM and before 7 PM, when winds could occasionally be near 25 knots. Waves will tend to be 2 to 4 feet during the period. && .CLIMATE... As of 216 AM EST Thursday... Following records set on Wednesday, a high minimum temperature is possible at BTV today. Forecast: 58 Record: 60 in 2022 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings AVIATION...Hastings MARINE...Kutikoff CLIMATE...Kutikoff