Mount Bohemia Snow Report

252 FXUS63 KMQT 030727 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 327 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues through tonight, then low chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms return on Tuesday with a cold front. Strong to severe storms are not expected and accumulations will be limited. - Temperatures rebound into the 80s for much of the area today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 Early morning GOES WV imagery shows the mid level ridge extending into the Upper Mississippi River Valley, pressing the downstream trough over the Lower Great Lakes and along the province line of Ontario and Quebec eastward. Surface high pressure ridging extending from James Bay across much of the Mississippi River Valley is supporting the calm conditions within the CWA. SPC mesoanalysis indicates the entire CWA is under less than 1 inch of PWATs with values as low as 0.5 inches over the east half. This and clear skies have allowed radiative cooling processes to lower temps into the 50s to mid 40s so far. Forecasted lows in the 40s to mid 50s, coldest interior remain on track. Dry weather continues through tonight as the ridge builds into the Great Lakes and sfc high pressure becomes confined to the Lower Great Lakes/OH River Valley. Meanwhile a shortwave trough over the northern Rockies tracks to Manitoba and western Ontario by Tuesday morning, increasing sfc troughing from the west which bears a cold front. The increasing southwest flow warms 850 mb temps to 18-22 C by late tonight, and with 500 mb height rises yields a warm up with widespread highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Lows stay mild tonight in the upper 50s to upper 60s. The shortwave trough swings through northwestern Ontario on Tuesday, driving a cold front and weak surface trough across the UP. Better dynamic forcing remains to the north of the UP and instability is capped much of the day, generally peaking around 1000 J/kg. Despite PWATs to between 1.5 to 1.8 inches with this boundary, model soundings are lack luster for deep moisture and the quick nature leaves much to desire for rainfall amounts. Even with sufficient deep-layer shear, strong to severe storms seem unlikely. As a result, the forecast reflects 20-40% PoPs from west to east on Tuesday. NBM probabilities of at least 0.25 inches are only between 10-40% over the east half of the UP and 0Z HREF probabilities struggle to even reach 10-15% just about anywhere within the CWA. Temperatures fall back into the 70s on Wednesday behind the front, but look to quickly rebound back into the 80s on Thursday as additional systems bring more chances for precipitation from Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 VFR and SKC conditions prevail at all sites and are expected to remain through the period. The biggest chance of a disruption to these conditions is a 10-20% chance of a brief period of patchy FG at SAW around sunrise, but confidence is too low to include in this TAF issuance. Expect light winds overnight to increase through the daytime hours out of the south to southwest at IWD/SAW and out of the south to southeast at CMX at up to 10 kt. && .MARINE... Issued at 326 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026 High pressure keeps winds below 20 kts today as dry weather persists over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated with the arrival of a cold front on Tuesday, but there remains uncertainty as to the coverage as they continue eastward. Strong to severe storms are unlikely. Southerly winds increase to 15-20 kts ahead of this front tonight with gusts around 25 kts. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Tuesday on both Great Lakes nearshores as winds become southwest to west in the wake of the front. Winds drop back below 20 kts Tuesday night behind the front, likely staying below 20 kts the remainder of the week (70% chance). Could see additional chances for showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...GS MARINE...CB/77