Mount St. Louis Moonstone Snow Report

750 FXUS61 KBUF 260551 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 151 AM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather will persist through tonight, then chances for rain return Sunday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will persist through tonight, then chances for rain return Sunday through Monday. Broads surface high pressure across eastern Ontario and Quebec will remain in place today before drifting east Sunday. Subsidence and dry air associated with the high will continue to support dry weather through tonight, although there will be more high clouds than the past few days. Meanwhile, an unseasonably strong coastal low off the Delmarva will remain in place today while maturing and occluding. The coastal low will then complete a cyclonic loop to the south of Long Island tonight through Sunday, nearing the Jersey shore by late Sunday and Sunday night. The westward drift in the position of the vertically stacked low will advect Atlantic moisture westward across NY/PA, with thickening and lowering clouds. The first chance of showers will reach central NY Sunday morning, then progress gradually westward as an inverted trough axis north of the low center rotates westward. Showers may reach the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Far western New York should stay dry most of Sunday, although a few light showers may arrive by late afternoon or evening given the westward trend in recent model guidance. The coastal low is then forecast to slowly meander northeast along the New England coast Sunday night through Tuesday, weakening with time. The greatest rain chances and greatest western extent of the rain shield will be Sunday night, with showers then gradually tapering off and ending from west to east late Sunday night through Monday as the low weakens and moves northeast. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain in place across eastern Ontario and Quebec through today, with associated subsidence and dry air keeping the eastern Great Lakes dry. There will likely be some patchy fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes early this morning with local IFR, but this will not impact any of the TAF locations. Otherwise, expect varying thickness of cirrus level clouds at times. Outlook... Sunday...A chance of showers gradually developing from east to west across the area. VFR in most areas, with some MVFR across the higher terrain of Central NY and the North Country. Monday...Chance of showers gradually ending from west to east. Mainly VFR, with some MVFR across the higher terrain of Central NY and the North Country. Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly dry weather and VFR expected. && .MARINE... Winds will become north-northeast and increase this morning on the lower Great Lakes, producing a moderate chop for much of the area. The highest winds and wave action in the nearshore zones will be found from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay, where conditions will approach low end Small Craft Advisory criteria today. Winds will increase further late tonight and Sunday as a coastal low along the east coast makes its closest pass. This will bring solid Small Craft Advisory conditions to the Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay nearshores, with marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions elsewhere. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA