Mt. Crescent Ski Area Snow Report

947 FXUS63 KOAX 170510 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1210 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog will blanket the area overnight into early Thursday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for locations where visibilities could drop as low as 1/4 mile. - Redevelopment of showers and storms will be possible early Thursday morning, particularly along and south of I-80. - Chances for more storms on Friday, with a 5% chance that some could be strong to severe. Off and on rain chances persist into the weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1118 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 Tonight through Friday... A subtle vort max will continue to lift through the region tonight, as southwesterly midlevel winds pull warm moist air into the region. A few scattered showers will be possible, with the best chance over southeast Nebraska early Thursday morning. Otherwise, the combination of light surface winds and cool temperatures within the moist airmass has yielded more expansive development of fog this evening. Latest RRFS and HREF runs suggest a few locations could see visibilities drop under 1/4 SM, from eastern Nebraska through south central Iowa. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for tonight through Thursday morning. Visibilities will improve by late Thursday morning as winds pick up and surface temperatures rise. Afternoon highs are currently forecast to reach the low to mid 70s in northeast Nebraska, with low to mid 80s expected over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Another weak shortwave will spill into the forecast area Thursday afternoon, bringing another round of wet weather, this time to northeast Nebraska, Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s Friday, allowing 1000-2000 J/kg of instability to pool over the region. A cold front will sweep through the region Friday evening, bringing at least a chance for strong to severe storms. Similar to the event we had on Monday, forecast hodographs feature a notable amount of turning in the low levels. However, deep layer shear looks fairly marginal, at around 20-30 kts, with better shear trailing behind the front. Saturday and Beyond... By early Saturday morning, the cold front should push off to our southeast. A few more showers and storms will be possible along the front early Saturday morning before it exits the forecast area. Behind the front, most areas reach the low to mid 70s, with a few of our southern counties reaching the low 80s. Sunday will see a more substantial wave eject from Colorado toward the area. The feature will help trigger or next round for rainfall, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. Periodic chances for more rainfall continue through Thursday as we see more disturbances traverse the region, but chances remain low at 15 to 30%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026 Low ceilings and fog have blanketed the region late this evening. LIFR ceilings are expected overnight for all terminals. Dense fog may be possible at times, but generally IFR visibility is anticipated. Around 15Z Thursday morning fog should begin to dissipate as ceilings lift and clear. A gradual increase through MVFR to eventually VFR conditions is forecast by afternoon. Widely scattered showers may also develop overnight into Thursday, but these are not expected to cause additional aviation impacts. Winds start light and variable before becoming northeasterly on Thursday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ030>033- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ056-069- 079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Chehak