Mt. Crescent Ski Area Snow Report

875 FXUS63 KOAX 090519 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1219 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance of a couple of isolated thunderstorms clipping northeastern Nebraska and western Iowa overnight. - Summer-like temperatures will continue through the weekend with widespread 80s expected. - Elevated fire weather concerns are expected in northern Nebraska on Saturday as southerly winds become gusty. - A cool down is expected beginning Monday and continuing into mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026 The forecast period with a warm front draped across central and northeastern Nebraska this evening and a shortwave trough sliding across southeastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed across portions of South Dakota and Iowa, thus far, staying out of the OAX CWA. There is a small chance of a few isolated thunderstorms clipping the northeastern and eastern portions of our area tonight as the low level jet kicks in. Models are in disagreement with some bringing in storms along the front, while others have the storm potential in the vicinity of the trough. Fairly weak instability in place over our area will wane over the next 2-3 hours, so I went with more of a blend of the ECMWF and Canadian models, putting the best chances for storms along our eastern CWA. Overnight, the warm front will lift north into northern Nebraska. There is a small chance of some patchy fog in low-lying areas north of the front; however, most areas are not expected to have fog develop. Expect warmer temperatures Friday with highs reaching well into the 80s. Saturday, brings a change in the weather pattern. An upper ridge amplifies over the Great Lakes with the Great Plains coming under southwest flow with a tight pressure gradient in place. Expect breezy to windy conditions beginning Friday night/Saturday morning and continuing through the day. South winds are expected to be around 10-20 mph for most areas with the strongest winds in northeastern Nebraska. South winds will help bring warmer air into the region, driving high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Winds gusting to around 30-40mph are expected. Minimum RH values will fall into the 20-40% range. There is a concern for some fire weather conditions, particularly in northeastern Nebraska in areas that were not affected by the recent heavy rain/flooding event. The warm temperatures continue into Sunday, although they will be slightly cooler, topping out primarily in the mid-80s. Lows will be in the 60s. Monday into the extended forecast: A cold front slips through eastern Nebraska/western Iowa on Monday, ushering in some cooler air. Highs will be in the 70s behind the front and the 80s ahead of it. By Tuesday and Wednesday, expect widespread 70s for highs. Isolated chances for showers/storms return to the forecast beginning Monday evening. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. LLWS is expected to develop shortly after 06Z at KOMA and KLNK this morning, and persist until shortly after 12Z Friday morning. Winds will generally remain out of the south overnight before increasing out of the southwest, at 10-15 kts, by late Friday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...KG