Nelson Nordic Snow Report

508 FXUS66 KOTX 310537 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1037 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Trending warmer and drier into early next week. Temperatures will be in the 80s Monday and Tuesday. - Active weather returns mid week. Wetter conditions with widely scattered rain showers. There is a 50-70% chance of at least a quarter of an inch of rain Wednesday through Wednesday night in the mountains. - Gusty southerly winds Wednesday afternoon across the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley may result in visibility reductions from blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will continue over northeast Washington and north Idaho through early Sunday morning. Temperatures remain cool on Sunday before warming back into the 80s for Monday and Tuesday. Active weather returns Tuesday night through the rest of the workweek with widely scattered showers, breezy winds and temperatures cooling back below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Sunday night through Tuesday: An upper-level ridge will build into the Pacific Northwest behind the exiting trough and ahead of the next incoming weather system. Temperatures will trend warmer early in the week, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to upper 80s on Monday. Further warming into the 80s is expected Tuesday as an upper- level trough digs offshore of northern California and Oregon, amplifying the ridge across the northern Rockies with deep southerly flow across the Inland Northwest. Relative humidity values will trend lower, driving a slight rebound in fire danger, though the risk for new fires remains low. Tuesday evening through Thursday: Model guidance remains in good agreement that the offshore upper-level trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves inland, though discrepancies persist regarding track and timing. A faster, more northerly track would bring the strongest synoptic dynamics through the region Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, introducing shower and thunderstorm chances as early as Tuesday night. A slower, more southerly track would focus most of the dynamics over north Idaho and delay precipitation onset until later Wednesday morning or afternoon. Precipitable water values will climb above 130% of normal, favoring wet thunderstorms. However, lightning strikes outside of the main rain cores will result in risk for new fire starts along with gusty outflow winds. South-southwest wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected on Wednesday across the western Columbia Basin and Okanogan Valley. Since blowing dust was observed on Saturday (Aug 29) with similar wind gusts we move more into the winter wheat planting season, reduced visibility from blowing dust will be a concern in areas that miss out on rain in the Columbia Basin and Waterville Plateau. A leading shortwave accompanied by an anomalous moisture plume, perhaps a weak atmospheric river, will shift inland Wednesday night into Thursday. Ensemble consensus is strong regarding the presence of this system, though differences remain on the timing of the initial shortwave and the placement of the trailing low as it digs southward. This moisture plume brings a 50% or greater chance of 0.25 inches of rain across the Cascades, far eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Probabilities for at least 0.10 inches drop to 40-50% in the immediate lee of the Cascades and central Columbia Basin. Friday through Sunday: Unsettled weather continues Friday into Saturday, though guidance diverges significantly on the evolution of the upper-level low. 59% of ensemble members move the low slowly inland across the Pacific Northwest, keeping temperatures cool with continued precipitation chances. The remaining 41% of ensembles retrograde the low offshore, allowing upper-level ridging to rebuild Saturday into Sunday with a warming trend for the weekend. /vmt && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected to prevail into Monday. A mid level cloud deck will continue to dissipate over northeast Washington into the far northern Idaho Panhandle. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with passing high cirrus clouds at times. Smoke and haze will be present in the Cascades valleys primarily down the Entiat River drainage and Lake Chelan, and north of the Wenatchee Airport (KEAT). Winds will be light. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to continue at TAF sites. A low probability alternate scenario is for some smoke and haze to filter down drainage into KEAT by Monday morning, but little to no chance for visibility to drop below 6SM. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 46 83 50 85 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 50 60 Coeur d`Alene 47 83 51 86 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 50 70 Pullman 40 83 48 81 45 69 / 0 0 0 10 50 70 Lewiston 51 88 56 87 58 75 / 0 0 0 10 50 70 Colville 38 80 42 85 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 40 70 Sandpoint 40 79 45 85 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 40 70 Kellogg 43 80 50 86 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 40 80 Moses Lake 48 85 54 85 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 20 30 Wenatchee 58 82 63 85 61 74 / 0 0 0 0 30 40 Omak 48 81 54 85 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 40 50 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$