Nelson Nordic snow report

950 FXUS66 KOTX 140520 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1020 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions persist across portions of Central and Eastern Washington, particularly down the Okanogan Valley, through at least Tuesday. - A warming trend will bring widespread highs in the 90s coupled with warm overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. - Forecast uncertainty increases mid to late week with potential for showers and thunderstorms. && .SYNOPSIS... An expansive ridge centered over the Central U.S. will maintain its influence over the Inland Northwest early this week, driving a warming trend through at least Tuesday. Persistent breezy winds and low humidity will maintain elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across portions of Central and Eastern Washington. By midweek, a surge of monsoonal moisture will introduce chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Monday afternoon through Tuesday: An upper level ridge centered over the Central U.S. will maintain its influence over the Inland Northwest, keeping conditions hot and (mostly) dry through the first half of the week. Subtle height rises will push afternoon temperatures well into the 90s across the region by Tuesday; 7 to 10 degrees warmer than mid-July averages. Overnight lows will also be quite warm, ranging throughout the 60s Monday night and Tuesday night. Some of the warmest spots including Wenatchee, Omak, Coulee City, and Mattawa will struggle to fall below 70 degrees. Hot daytime temperatures combined with limited overnight relief will push HeatRisk into the "Moderate" category across much of the region. Moderate HeatRisk impacts individuals sensitive to heat, particularly those without adequate cooling or hydration. In addition to hot temperatures, breezy south winds will persist up the Okanogan Valley through Monday evening, subsiding Monday night, then picking up again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Breezy winds paired with humidity in the low to mid teens will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Tuesday afternoon through Thursday: A trough off the west coast will keep the region under southwest flow aloft stretching from Baja California up to the Inland Northwest. This southwest flow will act as a pipeline for monsoonal moisture, ushering a distinct plume of moist air over the region toward the middle of the week. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, the incoming moisture will drive precipitable water values near 200 percent of normal over Southeastern Washington and the Central ID Panhandle, bringing increasing chances for showers. High- resolution models depict shower activity moving into these areas Tuesday evening, though there is notable variability regarding the northwestward extent of the showers. Some models keep the showers confined to the Blue Mountains and Central Idaho Panhandle, while others spread showers over the entire eastern third of Washington. On Wednesday, additional moisture pushes northward over the Cascades, bringing a 10 to 15 percent chance of showers. Due to the dry sub-cloud layer, much of this initial shower activity will fall as virga (evaporating before it reaches the ground), though a few sprinkles at the surface cannot be ruled out. By Thursday, forecast confidence lowers substantially. The latest ensemble clusters indicate 53 percent of members are in favor of the offshore trough swinging inland. Should this scenario play out, lapse rates will steepen and the trough will provide the necessary forcing to trigger thunderstorms in the moist and unstable atmosphere. However, 25 percent of ensembles are leaning toward a very different scenario in which the trough remains offshore and the ridge of high pressure to our east continues to warm our temperatures. This scenario would mean a lower thunderstorm threat but notably hotter conditions with temperatures potentially rising into triple digits. The remaining 22 percent of ensembles are going for a solution somewhere in between the two extremes. Looking ahead to Friday and beyond, model solutions re-converge on a hotter and drier pattern. The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook is in agreement, indicating a 50 to 70 percent chance of above normal temperatures across the Inland Northwest. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR will prevail across the Inland Northwest. Moisture flowing into the region will continue to produce mid and high cloud cover across the southern ID Panhandle and far southeastern WA, expand north and westward overnight into Tuesday. There is a slight chance of showers (20-25%) and thunderstorms (10%) Tuesday morning through afternoon. There is some risk showers may come to KLWS/KPUW and perhaps even KCOE; elsewhere it is expected to be too dry to allow any measurable precipitaiton at KGEG/KSFF, though a sprinkle may pass. Some gusty outflow winds are possible in the vicinity of and downwind of showers near 10-20kts. Otherwise modest winds are expected around the Okanogan Valley/Waterville Plateau, including KOMK Tuesday afternoon. Gusts of 15-25 kts possible there. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. Medium confidence in a few showers across ID Tuesday, with low confidence in thunderstorms potential. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 59 90 59 94 60 96 / 0 10 0 0 10 10 Coeur d`Alene 62 88 62 93 63 97 / 0 20 0 0 10 10 Pullman 56 84 54 90 55 92 / 0 30 0 0 10 0 Lewiston 66 92 64 98 65 100 / 0 40 10 0 10 10 Colville 54 91 56 95 57 96 / 0 10 0 0 10 20 Sandpoint 58 87 58 91 59 95 / 0 10 10 10 10 20 Kellogg 60 83 58 89 60 94 / 0 50 10 10 10 20 Moses Lake 60 95 63 97 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Wenatchee 66 96 70 97 70 94 / 0 0 0 10 20 40 Omak 61 98 67 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$