Black Jack snow report

493 FXUS66 KOTX 050702 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1202 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A gradual warming trend continues through Tuesday. Moderate HeatRisk on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 90s. - Widespread highs in the 90s on Monday and Tuesday will put most of the region in the Moderate HeatRisk category. - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday due to a combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity. && .SYNOPSIS... A gradual warming trend will continue early this week, bringing widespread highs in the 90s with potential for localized triple digits Monday and Tuesday. This will result in a widespread area of Moderate HeatRisk. Dry conditions will continue with relative humidities falling into the teens to low 20s each afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return Tuesday and peak on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Sunday: Dry conditions will continue across the region as a departing trough leaves a dry airmass in its wake. Afternoon relative humidities will once again fall into the low to mid teens. Down the Okanogan Valley, breezy northerly winds will persist into late Sunday morning, maintaining localized elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere across the Inland Northwest, winds will generally be light. Monday through Wednesday: A couple of distinct synoptic features will influence our weather through the first half of the week. First, an upper-level ridge will amplify over the West-Central U.S. with the ridge axis stretching from the Four Corners region northward into the Northern Rockies. The influence of the ridge will allow temperatures to continue climbing Monday and Tuesday with widespread highs in the 90s, placing most of the region in the Moderate HeatRisk category. This level of heat primarily impacts individuals who are sensitive to heat, particularly those lacking adequate cooling or hydration. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with potential for the deep Columbia Basin and Lewiston- Clarkston Valley to hit the 100-degree mark. Probabilities of hitting or exceeding 100 degrees on Tuesday are as follows: Lewiston - 40% chance Mattawa - 35% chance Moses Lake - 25% chance The second synoptic feature arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper- level low spinning up over the Gulf of Alaska early in the week will track eastward into British Columbia Tuesday night into Wednesday, sending a robust cold front across the Pacific and Inland Northwest. Ahead of the front Tuesday evening, the cross-Cascade pressure gradient will tighten, bringing gusty west-southwest winds through the Cascade gaps and up the Okanogan Valley. As the front passes on Wednesday, winds will shift westerly and expand eastward across the rest of Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Thus, Wednesday will be the primary period of concern for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Long-range ensemble forecast probabilities highlight these concerns, showing a 40% to 70% chance of RH dropping below 20% down the Okanogan Valley and across the Columbia Basin Wednesday afternoon. Also on Wednesday afternoon, there is a 40% to 80% chance of sustained wind speeds exceeding 15 mph across the Columbia Basin and a 40% to 60% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph across the same area. While the front will bring in slightly cooler air, the cool down will not be dramatic. Expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday: A dry zonal flow pattern establishes itself for Thursday and Friday, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Forecast confidence lowers heading into the weekend as global ensembles diverge. Around 60 percent of ensemble members are in favor of bringing a trough in from the Pacific, while the other 40 percent amplify an upper-level ridge out of the desert Southwest which would signal another period of heat. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Widespread VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24. Winds will remain a bit breezy through the night with speeds of 10-15 kts down the Okanogan Valley and through the Cascade gaps including KOMK and KEAT. For these locations, winds are forecast to subside late Sunday morning between 17-20Z. Elsewhere, winds have already decreased and will remain light through the day Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 85 52 89 56 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 83 53 89 58 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 81 49 86 53 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 90 58 92 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Colville 84 48 90 53 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 82 55 88 59 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 81 52 88 57 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 89 55 94 58 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 89 62 93 66 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 87 57 94 61 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$