Black Jack snow report

555 FXUS66 KOTX 200722 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1222 AM PDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 10-30% chance of pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms northeastern WA and north Idaho Wednesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - 90% chance for a cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue Wednesday afternoon in northeast Washington and north Idaho. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing into the high 70s and 80s by Friday and continuing through the weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. There is high confidence for cooler and unsettled conditions to return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: A shortwave in southern Alberta will bring a dry cold front from the north Wednesday evening. There will be a 10- 30% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in northeast Washington and north Idaho this afternoon as a 110 kt jet streak dives in from central BC and into north central Washington. Instability will be maximized around the ID/MT border in the late afternoon with around 300-600 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Farther west in northeast Washington, drier boundary layer conditions will lead to higher cloud bases thus less available surface based CAPE. Effective bulk shear will be weak around 15-20 kt so expect single cells. Main risks with these cells will be gusty outflows up to 30 mph, isolated lightning, and small hail around pea size. Farther west this afternoon and early evening, there will be elevated fire weather conditions with dry and breezy north winds 10-15 mph down the Okanogan valley, eastern Waterville Plateau, and northern Basin. Behind this system, the Inland NW will be mild with above normal 500 mb heights through Saturday thanks to high pressure off the coast. Temperatures will climb from the upper 60s to low 80s today to the high 70s to upper 80s by Friday and through the weekend. Sunday through Wednesday: Changes are coming as the ensemble clusters indicate a 90% chance of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska diving south towards the Pacific NW Sunday and Monday. This will bring a cooling trend early next week and chances for rain and high elevation snow. There is still a 3000 ft spread for the 10th to 90th percentile snow levels in the Cascades Monday and Tuesday. The colder solutions have snow levels around 3500-4500 ft and the warmer solutions having snow levels around 6500-7500 ft. This period will need to be monitored for folks headed out into the high backcountry for potential light snow. /db && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will spark across northeast Washington and north Idaho again Wednesday afternon with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Winds will be fairly light but shift towards northerly component in the afternoon as south-north pressure gradient increases with a dry front passage from the north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 70 43 71 46 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 68 42 71 47 74 49 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 66 41 68 44 73 46 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 71 46 74 48 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 73 37 76 43 79 46 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 67 40 70 45 73 47 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 67 41 72 45 75 47 / 30 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 77 48 78 48 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 77 53 78 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 77 47 78 50 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$