Ober Gatlinburg Ski Resort Snow Report

431 FXUS64 KMRX 020439 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1239 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 - Ongoing showers and storms will continue to weaken as they shift east overnight. Localized flooding will still be a threat over the next several hours tonight. - Isolated damaging wind and localized flooding will be possible with additional storms mainly across far northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Sunday afternoon. - At least scattered showers and storms can be expected each day Monday through Friday, especially during the afternoon hours. Higher chances expected early in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 The front located near our western border will be moving slowly across our western portions of our area through the night, but will be very slow to exit. There will be additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms overnight into Sunday morning near and ahead of the front, but the severe threat is waning. A few areas have seen flooding this evening, and any areas that see repeated or prolonged heavy rainfall over the next few hours will continue to be at risk for flooding. This flooding threat is expected to be diminishing later tonight. The south/southeast low level flow across the eastern mountains will keep gusty winds in the usual higher elevation and foothill areas overnight into early Sunday, although still do not expect strong enough winds to warrant a wind advisory. These gusty winds will be subsiding during the day as flow weakens and becomes more southwesterly. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable ahead of the slow moving front during the day Sunday, a few strong to severe storms will be possible mainly over our northeastern areas of NE TN and SW VA where effective shear of 25 to 35 kts is forecast along with ML CAPES of around 1000 J/kg or more. Damaging winds would be the primary threat with any stronger storms. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be a concern with these storms. The front will likely edge east of our area by late in the day or early Sunday night. The models, as is usually the case in these types of scenarios, still are struggling with the exact placement and movement of the weak upper low that is left behind and meanders somewhere over the region during the early part of the week. The ensemble approach of the NBM has rather high chances for showers and storms over us for Monday through Wednesday, but a minority solution in the models suggests that the upper low drifts off to our east and/or northeast more quickly and chances for precipitation decrease earlier (the latest 00Z NAM is in this camp). We will have to wait for more clarity on that, but eventually we will see the chances decrease to a more typical summertime pattern of scattered showers and storms around mainly during the afternoon hours each day by the Thursday through Saturday time frame if not sooner. We will start the week out with high temperatures a bit below normal, but gradual warming will bring temperatures back to around normal by the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 Will still be some showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, around early in the period at TYS and TRI. The probability of thunderstorms impacting the terminals looks too low to include in the TAFs, so will have tempo shower groups both sites. TRI may see a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon, so will have a prob30 thunder group there late. CHA looks likely to see an MVFR level cig for several hours later tonight/early Sunday, and there is a good chance of it moving into TYS as well. TRI will likely stay VFR outside of any showers or storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 70 86 71 / 20 10 70 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 85 70 / 40 20 60 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 68 85 69 / 40 30 60 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 82 66 / 80 50 70 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99