Pine Mountain Resort Snow Report

995 FXUS63 KGRB 300630 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain is expected to continue at times through Thursday. Total rainfall amounts between 0.5 and 1" are forecast for portions of central to east-central Wisconsin. - Strong southerly winds will result in hazardous swimming and boating conditions on Lake Michigan through this evening. - Patchy frost will be possible at times across northern Wisconsin later this week as a cooler and drier airmass settles in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Rain chances through Thursday... Radar currently shows a northeast/southwest oriented band of scattered showers working over portions of central and eastern Wisconsin on the nose of 850 mb jet max and broad area of isentropic ascent. This first round of rain has struggled to make much of itself into the overnight hours, with QPF totals thus far coming in slightly under forecast. As it looks right now, subsidence behind this line of showers looks to afford us a brief break from stratiform rain today, with activity looking more scattered in nature. Rain chances then return to eastern Wisconsin late tonight into Thursday morning as moist conveyor belt from the remnants of Hurricane Polo sneaks into east-central Wisconsin, increasing PWATs to near 2" (99th percentile relative to climo) as surface front moves through. However, with southerly trend coming to fruition, probabilities for receiving one inch of QPF now only stand at 20 to 40% for areas south of Hwy 10. A rumble or two of thunder would not be out of the question this afternoon or evening due to elevated instability (200 to 300 J/kg) along the front, though no organized convection is expected. CAMs once again showing signal for patchy fog development behind the line of showers this morning as boundary layer remains saturated. Could certainly see some ground fog developing, though remain skeptical about dense fog potential due to breezy winds. Better fog setup looks to be late tonight into early Thursday morning. Extended... High pressure builds back in across the Midwest Thursday evening, lasting through at least the middle of next week. Only exception will be a 20 to 40% chance for rain on Saturday. Otherwise, main forecast concerns for the extended center around frost/freeze potential toward the end of the week as high sits overhead and 850 mb temperatures fall to near 0C. There will be a higher likelihood of patchy frost occurrence several times across the north through early next week, though we could be looking at a more widespread frost/freeze event Sunday into Monday. Will continue to monitor trends for headline potential as we approach the end of the growing season. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 951 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Overview: A slow-moving cold front will bring widespread rain and deteriorating flight conditions tonight through Wednesday morning. Then a slow, gradual improving trend Wednesday afternoon while MVFR/IFR ceilings continue over central to east- central WI through Wednesday evening. Through 12Z, the cold front will bring bring widespread -SHRA/BR with lowering ceilings to IFR and vsbys 3-5SM. Low- level wind shear hazard (LLWS 2000 ft 220-230/35-40 kt) at KAUW, KCWA, KATW, KMTW, and KGRB between 02Z-08Z. 12Z-20Z Wed: Widespread light rain changes to a drizzle and mist. Widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings (400-900 ft AGL) with drizzle/mist (-DZ BR) very slowly lifting to IFR/MVFR toward 16Z-20Z at KRHI, KAUW, KCWA. The greatest improvements will likely occur at KRHI. SW-W winds 6-10 kts. 20Z Wed-01Z Thu: Further ceiling improvements are expected at KRHI, KAUW, KCWA but only very small improvements are possible over the Fox Valley and Lakeshore. 01Z-06Z Thu: Guidance is showing ceilings deteriorating again over central and east-central WI and back to low end MVFR or IFR. Some potential for fog to develop by late in the taf period over areas where clearing occurs. Confidence/Outlook: High confidence in LIFR/IFR ceilings 06-18Z Wed. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Strong southerly winds will result in a period of hazardous marine conditions along Lake Michigan nearshore waters through late tonight. Winds will be sustained at around 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots, highest near Death`s Door. Waves will build between 4 and 6 ft. Waves then subside on Thursday as winds decrease and veer to the northwest. High waves and strong currents will also result in dangerous swimming conditions along Lake Michigan beaches in Manitowoc, Kewaunee, and Door counties. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT early this morning through late tonight for WIZ022-040-050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Goodin