Pine Mountain Resort Snow Report

959 FXUS63 KGRB 150801 AAA AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Green Bay WI 301 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances continue to trend lower today (15-30%). Many areas will stay dry. Scattered showers (30-70%) and a few thunderstorms (10-20%) tonight as cold front moves through. - A brief shower or storm (20-30%) may occur Sunday afternoon from Door County to east-central WI. - Next chance for showers and some storms (60-80%) Tuesday and Tuesday night, tapering off Wednesday morning. Confidence in storm severity is low, but locally heavy rain could occur. - Turning cooler middle to end of next week, with highs in the lower to middle 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Near term through tonight: Dry trend for today continues. For most of the day, organized showers and storms will have hard time making it even into southern WI as gradient of instability and convergence from low-level jet remain south. Moisture advection on north edge could result in a few showers over far southern areas, but most locations will stay dry through late afternoon. Even so, mid clouds will hold down temps in the upper 70s to near 80. A few more showers and maybe a storm could develop over central WI late this afternoon as lift from shortwave moves in from central plains and interacts with CAPEs up to 500J/kg along a warm front. Better chances for showers and isolated storms occurs this evening into the overnight as tail of shortwave over Lake Superior and cold front cross the state. Right entrance region of jet will also help organize showers, especially over northern WI, where some rain is certainly needed. Even as PWATs near 1.8 inches (95+ percentile) will be interacting with the forcing, rainfall amounts look on the light side with minimal instability. If a heavier swath of showers develops it could produce over 0.5 inch of rain over north-central WI, but that prospect looks quite localized. Signal is there that not much rain at all makes it into northeast or east-central WI where HREF means showing a min in QPF. Brief shower or storm chance Sunday: Despite being behind the front on Sunday, shortwave dragging through during peak heating may kick off isolated showers and storms over from Door County to along the lakeshore in the early afternoon. Not a lot for pops (20-30%), but CAPEs over 1000J/kg boosted by lingering higher dewpoints and effective shear over 30 kts could produce a stronger storm. Next chance for rain is Tuesday into Wednesday: Sharpening northwest flow pushes stronger shortwave and cold front across the western Great Lakes region. Though forecast instability and various Machine Learning output suggest highest signal stays southwest from southern MN into IA, it will not take much increase in CAPE to lead to some severe threat across WI as the forcing arrives during peak heating on Tuesday afternoon. Uncertainty on how fast this system exits and models are not surprisingly showing some variability with that. Overall, other than tonight`s shower chances, this system looks like the greatest opportunity for rain next week. Cooler air push behind this system remains on track, with highs settling into the lower to middle 70s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight as a surface boundary currently parked along the I-94 corridor begins to lift north. Cigs should remain VFR through the morning, but a few pockets of MVFR cigs are possible across the Fox Valley Saturday morning. There is also a small chance (20-30%) for some scattered showers to develop across central into east-central WI early Saturday morning, however, with limited instability and weak forcing the risk for any lightning is low. Low end VFR cigs are expected to overtake much of the region by Saturday afternoon. A cold front sweeping across the region Saturday will bring another (40-60%) for scattered showers from west to east after 03Z. Confidence that any showers would impact a terminal before the end of the TAF period was too low to include in the TAFs as this point but will likely need to introduce at least SHRA with future issuances. Light east to southeast winds are expected tonight. A slight increase in the southeast winds is expected Saturday with occasional gusts up to 15 kts during the day. Behind the passing front Saturday night winds will veer around to the west northwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Southeast winds will increase today across the Lake Michigan nearshore waters as a cold front approaches the area. This will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions, with gusts over 20 kts and waves up to 4 feet, highest south of Two Rivers. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM CDT this morning through this evening for WIZ050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......GK MARINE.........JLA