Ski Morin Heights Snow Report

438 FXUS61 KBTV 040722 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 322 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 322 AM EDT Friday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 322 AM EDT Friday... 1. Showers possible today and Saturday with drier weather expected Sunday and Monday. 2. Several rounds of showers will be possible next week, but no significant weather is expected. && .DISCUSSION... As of 322 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level low will be anchored to our northeast today with a weak shortwave moving through the longwave trough. This energy is expected to spark isolated showers this afternoon but the lack of any appreciable instability or moisture will keep the areal coverage low and the intensity light. We will see an increase in shower activity across the region on Saturday as a second shortwave helps to deepen the low to our northeast and the low sinks to the southeast. This will increase mid-level lift while increasing mid- level lapse rates and therefore slightly increase instability. With east/northeast winds in the low to mid levels, we should advect in some Atlantic moisture which will also aid in increasing the areal coverage of showers. However, precipitation rates will remain meager with just some periodic light rain throughout the day on Saturday. Deep layer ridging will build overhead on Sunday and continue into Monday which will keep seasonably cool temperatures in the forecast while also bringing plentiful sunshine and dry weather. KEY MESSAGE 2: After a seasonable and dry holiday weekend, chances for showers look to return throughout next week, although no significant weather is expected at this time. Starting with Monday night into Tuesday, a cold front looks to push across the region driving shower activity, although rainfall will be limited given lack of deep moisture. As the week progresses, several shortwaves look to move through, bringing chances for light rain showers each day, with Thursday possibly seeing the most coverage. Despite the chances for showers, no day looks to be a complete washout at this time given the showery nature of the precipitation, but an extended period of dry weather is not expected either. Temperatures for next week look to be on the cool side for the most part, with high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s through the week and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Main concern for aviation throughout the forecast period will be developing fog and mist across the region tonight with a mix of flight conditions expected across terminals. The greatest confidence for fog continues to be at KSLK and KMSS where it is currently occurring, followed by KEFK and KMPV. Given the uncertainty, a mix of TEMPO and prevailing groups were utilized in the TAF. Any lingering fog should dissipate towards 13Z. Winds will remain calm overnight before northwest winds increase through the morning, generally 5 to 10 knots with a few gust 15 to 20 knots possible through the afternoon. A few scattered showers are expected to develop throughout the afternoon, but there is low confidence any showers impacting any terminals at this point, so have left mention out of the forecast for now. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay DISCUSSION...Clay/Kremer AVIATION...Kremer