Ski Snow Valley Barrie Snow Report

442 FXUS61 KBUF 080621 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 221 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of unsettled weather are expected through Friday. 2) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring a soaking rain to the region Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of unsettled weather are expected through Friday. A longwave trough axis will move from the upper Midwest to the western Canadian Maritimes throughout the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, a few shortwave troughs will pass across the region supporting continued west-southwesterly to northwesterly cyclonic flow. At the surface, a cold front will continue to advance southeast across the region this morning, not only will this help push the shower activity over north-central New York to exit east this morning, the breezy winds will also continue to diminish. Low-level cold air advection in the wake of the cold front today will support a few periodic lake-effect rain showers over and east- southeast of Lake America, mainly impacting Oswego county and the Tug Hill Plateau due to the predominantly westerly flow. An isolated rain shower or two will be possible this afternoon into early evening across the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley and into north- central New York as weak potential instability within the lowest 1km of the atmosphere is released from low-level convergence and moist ascent along the surface trough axes from the shortwave trough aloft. Otherwise, primarily fair weather is expected for the remainder of the area through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring a soaking rain to the region Sunday. While still a few days out and the pattern evolution continues to remain uncertain, remnants of Hurricane Isaias looks to make its way northeast across the Southeast Coast and towards the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. The northernmost reaches of the low pressure system will likely bring a widespread soaking rain to the region by Sunday and last through Sunday night. As alluded to previously, rainfall amounts continue to remain uncertain at this time, so stay tuned for future forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front currently passing across the region this morning will act to guide scattered showers across western and northcentral New York eastward by daybreak. Despite the passing showers, mainly VFR conditions prevail. Additionally with the passing front, winds have noticeably decreased this morning to range from 05 to 10 knots sustained. Mainly dry with predominantly VFR flight conditions will prevail today. However, lake effect/enhanced rain showers may develop east and southeast of Lake America with localized MVFR possible. This being said, should note that this activity will remain south of KART. Winds will shift to the west behind the cold front with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots possible from late morning through the afternoon. Outlook... Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. A few showers may linger toward the North Country Friday morning. Sunday through Monday...MVFR/VFR with showers possible. && .MARINE... A cold front is in the midst of crossing eastward across Lake America this morning. In the wake of the front, a trough will linger over the region through Thursday. West to northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots and waves as large as 2 to 5 feet are expected today. The strongest winds and largest waves are expected to affect Lake America and will support additional Small Craft Advisories today. Later this week, a ridge of high pressure will build and eventually crest eastward across the area Friday through Friday night before beginning to exit eastward on Saturday. West to northwesterly winds are expected to back gradually to southerly and trend around 5 to 15 knots. Waves are expected to trend mainly 3 feet or less, but lingering 4 to 5 footers on Lake America are expected to abate to 3 feet or less by Friday night. Sunday through Monday, a trough should overspread the eastern Great Lakes generally from the west as a cold front approaches from the Upper Midwest, western Great Lakes, and vicinity. Our regional winds should trend mainly southerly to southwesterly around 5 to 15 knots and waves should trend 3 feet or less. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAL AVIATION...EAL MARINE...EAL