Sunburst Ski Area Snow Report

487 FXUS63 KGRB 260521 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1221 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026 Updated aviation portion for the 06Z TAF issuance. .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/scattered light rain/sprinkles overnight into Monday morning. Rain chances (30-80%) Monday afternoon into Tuesday, highest across central and north-central WI. 50-80% for rain Wednesday night, including the potential for a few storms. - Cooler on Monday with near seasonal temps, then above normal temps return Tuesday and continue into next weekend. - Hazardous conditions begin on Lake Michigan south of Two Rivers Monday afternoon then overspread the rest of the nearshore waters and possibly the bay of Green Bay Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026 Precip and Storm Chances...post frontal shower/sprinkle activity starting to wane across the area late this evening, but lingering moisture and weak lift could lead to some additional sprinkles overnight in Monday morning. Shower activity will then focus across MN and northwest WI, closer to a low pressure system and shortwave. However, isentropic lift and a ribbon on moisture will extend into parts of northeast WI. This will bring rain chances of 30-75% to locations mainly north of Hwy 29 later Monday into Tuesday morning, highest across north-central WI. The heavier and most persistent rain will reside over far northwest WI, with lighter rain expected in our area, with probabilities of over 0.25" of rain through Tuesday night under 35%. Thermal profiles are showing a below freezing layer between 1000-2000 ft early Tuesday, which if it materializes, it could be just cold enough for a little sleet to mix in across far north-central WI. But think temps will be slow to drop due to the expected cloud cover, and have opted to stick with just rain. The low-level dry air feeding into the area on the northeast winds will eat away at the eastward progression of the shower activity, but some light showers or sprinkles will spread into parts of eastern WI at times. Another shortwave and frontal boundary will cross the area on later Wednesday into early Thursday, bringing a 50-80% chance for showers. A ribbon of mainly elevated instability will move into the area late Wednesday (likely after sunset), bringing some low thunder chances (~20%). Will continue to mention a slight chance for storms. No severe weather is expected. Temperatures...northeast/north flow behind the front will usher in a much cooler day on Monday, with highs ranging from the upper 40s across north-central WI to the mid 50s in the Fox Valley. The shot of cooler air will be short-lived, as highs will rebound 5-15 degrees on Tuesday and back into the mid 60s to low 70s on Wednesday. Above normal temps remain in place Thursday into next weekend, with highs mainly in upper 50s and 60s, with a 70 possible over the south on Thursday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026 Early overnight, a cold front is draped from northeast Lower Michigan to northern Illinois. North of this boundary, a narrow area of MVFR ceilings exists from central to east-central WI. These MVFR ceilings should be present for only a brief period into the overnight hours, and have ceilings returning to VFR by 08z Mon. Thereafter, ceilings between 4-7 kft should prevail through 00z Tue. After 00z Tue, the cold front will return north as a warm front with increasing lift supporting rain chances over much of central and north-central WI by the end of the TAF period. Went -RA prevailing after 02z at AUW/CWA and after 04z at RHI. Confidence is lower at GRB and ATW, so a prob30 was introduced. With the rain chances, ceilings will be lowering to MVFR at AUW/CWA/RHI. A period of northeast winds will impact northeast WI that could bring gusts 15-20 kts at GRB/MTW after 15z Mon. These gusty winds should subside after 00z Tue. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......MPC