Sunburst Ski Area Snow Report

470 FXUS63 KGRB 050630 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory remains in effect for north-central and far northeast Wisconsin until 8 AM this morning. - Breezy southwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph are expected to create hazardous marine conditions Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. Marine headlines have been issued. - Patchy frost will be possible over far northern Wisconsin Thursday and Friday nights with low temperatures in the mid 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Frost/freeze... Temperatures have been slow to fall after sunset with light winds and scattered mid clouds around, with readings in the upper 30s to low 40s early this morning across headline areas. However, with several hours yet for cooling to occur, current thinking is that Frost Advisory remains on track. No headline changes or upgrades are planned with only a 20 to 40% chance for temperatures below 33 degrees. Confidence continues to decrease for additional frost/freeze headlines early this week, though with high pressure drifting overhead and abnormally dry airmass in place, potential returns toward the end of the week. Rain chances... CAMs showing light rain across most of the forecast area this evening into tonight as clipper-like low passes to the north and WAA increases. As such, rain chances increase after 00Z within isentropic forcing. QPF should remain minimal as high pressure puts up a good fight as it so often does in this scenario. NBM probabilistic guidance shows only a 10 to 30% chance for exceeding 0.25" of rain north of Hwy 29 through Tuesday morning. Remain skeptical that quick shot of moisture will be able to hold out, so will see what happens. Persistence forecast more or less in place for the remainder of the week as ridge of high pressure puts us under stagnant northwest flow regime. Moisture-starved front is progged to traverse the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday, increasing winds and bringing temperatures into the low to mid 60s. Still no signal for any organized systems through the extended, which does not bode well for northern Wisconsin where D2 (Severe) to D4 (Exceptional) drought conditions exist. Expect fire weather concerns to increase over the next couple of weeks due to several rounds of frost/freeze, increasing fine fuels, and afternoon RHs routinely falling into the low to mid 30s across the sandy soils. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026 VFR conditions should prevail through Monday afternoon. Light west to northwest winds will back to the south/southeast later Monday afternoon and evening. At KMTW, pushed back the timing to 21z of the wind shift to the southeast. The next chance of light rain will be across northern Wisconsin later Monday evening. For now, will only mention it in the KRHI taf. Rain may spread southward to the other TAF sites after 06z Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Gradient winds are set to increase under southerly return flow Tuesday afternoon as Pacific cold front traverses the region. Sustained winds are thus progged to increase to 15 to 25 knots over the water, with near gale force gusts within the realm of possibility. Current HREF probabilities for 10 meter wind gusts over 38 mph are 40 to 80%, highest near Death`s Door. As such, conditions looking pretty slam dunk for Small Craft Advisory criteria being met, with decent signal for gales if trends hold. Waves are expected to build to 6 to 9 ft along the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan during this time, with 2 to 4 ft waves forecast on the Bay. Have opted to throw out a Gale Watch for all marine zones, with wind up and wind down Small Crafts for Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning, respectively. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005-010>013- 018>021-030-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Eckberg MARINE.........Goodin