Sunburst Ski Area Snow Report

634 FXUS63 KGRB 040630 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 130 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring chances for scattered showers and storms through this evening. The severe threat remains low. Isolated showers may continue into Wednesday. - Elevated wildfire smoke may become near surface at times today and tonight. Moderate (yellow category) air quality readings are forecast during this time. - Warmer and more humid conditions build into the area over the weekend, along with periodic chances for showers and storms Friday through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Rain/storm chances... Latest surface obs show a cold front associated with a broken line of showers/storms draped over eastern Minnesota as of early this morning. Front will continue to impinge on northwest Wisconsin over the next couple of hours, though shower activity should become more scattered upon reaching the forecast area mid-morning. Robust capping and remnant dry air to around 800 mb from departing high pressure should keep showers mostly isolated through early this afternoon, before CAMs show re-development occurring along the front during peak heating as the cap erodes. Though the severe threat is low, skinny CAPE profiles (1,000 to 1,200 J/kg) and near inverted-V profiles would suggest gusty winds as a potential hazard with any storms as daytime mixing taps into 25 to 30 knot winds at the top of the dry layer. Convergence along the front ramps up across southern Wisconsin early this evening as PWATs in proximity to the surface low increase to near 2". As such, most recent suite of model runs retains the axis of heaviest precip off to our south, with NBM probabilistic guidance only showing a 20 to 40% signal for receiving 1" of rainfall localized to east-central Wisconsin. Light shower activity may continue into Wednesday as the low tracks over southern Michigan and cyclonic flow lingers, though most areas should remain dry. Late week rain/storm chances... As the synoptic pattern de- amplifies and zonal flow establishes itself across the CONUS mid- week, expect a brief dry period through Thursday. Flattened upper trough and attendant surface low then approach the Midwest on Friday, bringing our next widespread shower/storm chances that last through the weekend. Predictability in storm coverage and intensity remains low this far out, as these will likely hinge on how western ridge evolves throughout the week and how much associated heat/humidity we can get into our neck of the woods. Cursory glance at ML guidance paints a broad swath of 5 to 15% probs over the upper Mississippi Valley for Days 5 and 6, though this will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Smoke... As post-FROPA winds shift to the west later this morning, shower activity along the front may help mix elevated smoke plume down to the surface at times through this evening. No significant reductions in visibility are expected, though air quality may degrade to moderate (yellow category). && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 VFR conditions are expected through early Tuesday morning as high clouds gradually increase over the area late tonight into Tuesday morning ahead of the next cold front. A brief period of LLWS is possible at the central and north-central WI TAF sites mainly between 06-13z Tue. As the cold front moves over the region Tuesday morning, clouds will thicken with MVFR cigs at the central and north-central WI TAF sites. There is uncertainty in these MVFR cigs reaching the east-central WI TAF sites as the clouds should gradually rise as the front moves east during the day, but will likely remain as low-end VFR cigs. A broken line of showers and storms seen upstream in MN late this evening is expected to gradually weaken as it moves eastward into Tuesday morning. Included a TEMPO group at RHI with PROB30 groups at the central WI TAF sites all for showers for Tuesday morning. Some hi-res models suggest redevelopment of the showers occurring as the front reaches the east-central WI TAF sites Tuesday afternoon, so have included PROB30 groups for now. Cannot rule out the potential for a few rumbles of thunder, but confidence is too low to include thunder in this TAF issuance. Southwest winds under 10 kts through tonight, increasing Tuesday morning with gusts to 15-20 kts before veering to the west and decreasing behind the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through this evening for WIZ022-040-050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......Kruk