Tanglwood Ski Area Snow Report

275 FXUS61 KPHI 170541 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 141 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for 6Z TAFs. Reworked key messages. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will remain in the area today, lingering into the weekend. 2. The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be active with showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday into Saturday night along with warm and very humid conditions. Storms have the potential of becoming severe and also producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Smoke from Canadian wildfires will remain in the area today, lingering into the weekend. Latest HRRR/RAP smoke guidance continues to depict that a slug of dense near surface smoke from the wildfires originating over western Ontario will remain in the area through Saturday. Skies will likely be quite hazy with visibilities projected to fall between 1 to 3 miles this morning, especially southern areas. With more of a northerly surface flow expected today, this may suppress the worst of the smoke south of our area by mid-day. However, as flow shifts to more southerly by tonight, guidance suggests that surface smoke works back north tonight into Saturday. So far this smoke event has not reached the levels of June 7 2023, but some areas have gotten relatively close. Its certainly the smokiest event since then. Latest guidance is optimistic about smoke clearing out Saturday night. For more information about air quality in your area, visit your state Department of Environmental Protection agency. We will also relay any Air Quality Alerts they may issue on our website. KEY MESSAGE 2...The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be active with showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday into Saturday night along with warm and very humid conditions. Storms have the potential of becoming severe and also producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Low pressure will move eastward through the Great Lakes region Friday night through Saturday before passing by to our north Saturday night into early Sunday. As this occurs, expect multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to move through...first with the warm front and then with the cold front. At this point it looks like conditions stay mainly dry through most of Friday night. Heading into Saturday, the warm front lifts through in the morning and this will bring an initial round of showers and storms through the area. This first round should especially target areas near and north of the urban corridor where POPs are 70-90 percent. Parts of south Jersey and southern Delmarva could largely miss this initial round. There will be a threat for heavy rainfall potentially leading to flash flooding with the morning storms but the severe weather risk looks more limited until later. Following this first round, there could be a break of a few hours in the afternoon during which it will get quite muggy. Highs should range from the low 80s north to the low 90s south but with very high dew points expected the heat indices are likely to top out in the mid and upper 90s around the urban corridor and up to around 105 across portions of Delmarva. So heat headlines may be needed. As we get into the mid to latter part of Saturday afternoon into the evening another round of heavy showers and storms looks to move through ahead of the cold front. It`s with this round that we`ll see the best chance of severe weather and flash flooding as well. In terms of the parameters, ML CAPE looks likely to top out in the 1000- 2000+ j/kg range with deep layer shear around 35 to 50 knots. This will support a threat for damaging winds and even some potential for supercells which, if these occur, could also produce large hail. PWATs will also be surging to over 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile for this time of year) so there`s an increasing potential for very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The greatest threat for this will be for urban, low lying areas, and areas near creeks and streams. Also, any locations that get especially hit hard by both rounds of convection will have a greater potential for flash flooding. Rain amounts of over 2 inches per hour will be possible. Shower/storms should weaken by the late evening into the overnight Saturday night as the cold front moves through. Sunday is now shaping up to be largely dry with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humid levels. Only our southern most zones over portions of the MD eastern shore, southern Delaware, and far southern NJ have chances for some lingering showers or storms but even here the POPs are only 20-30 percent. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Thru 12Z...Smoke will linger over the terminals, resulting in MVFR and IFR VSBYs. Winds becoming LGT/VRB. Moderate confidence overall. Today...MVFR/IFR VSBYs in the morning, improving to MVFR, then possibly to VFR by the afternoon as smoke clears out briefly, especially northern terminals. LGT/VRB winds in the morning, becoming W 5 to 10 kt, except at KACY, where winds will become SE behind afternoon sea breezes. Low confidence. Tonight...MVFR/IFR vsby return as smoke starts regressing back northward. Winds shift more southerly but remain fairly light. Low confidence. Outlook... Saturday through Saturday night...At least some restrictions likely at times due to showers and storms, and possibly due to smoke early Saturday. Sunday...Mainly VFR except some lingering showers possible at MIV and ACY especially early in the day which could still cause some restrictions for these sites. Monday...VFR expected. Tuesday...Potential for some restrictions by late day and at night as the next system approaches with shower/storms. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through early Saturday. North- northeast winds around 10 kt are expected this morning, before settling out of the southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2-3 feet through early Saturday. However, wildfire smoke will continue to filter into the region through early Saturday. This may cause localized areas of visibility restrictions. Will have to monitor observations closely as denser smoke passes through the region, where marine dense smoke advisories may become warranted if visibilities drop to 1 mile or less, but at this time it appears more unlikely. By Saturday winds shift more south-southwest and increase ahead of a strong cold front. SCA`s may be needed as gusts may reach 30 kts with seas above 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely as well. Outlook... Saturday night...South to southwesterly winds near or above SCA criteria expected. Expect winds around 15-20 kt with some gusts 20-30 kt. Seas likely 4-6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Sunday...Seas may linger near SCA levels early in the day but otherwise the conditions should be sub SCA. Monday...Fair weather expected with winds under 25 knots and seas around 2-4 feet. Tuesday...Winds and seas may approach SCA levels by late day. Rip Currents... Today, north-northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph in the morning will settle out of the east-southeast in the afternoon with a 1 to 2 foot swell around 8 to 9 seconds. Breaking wave heights will range between 1 to 2 feet. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. On Saturday, south winds around 10 to 15 mph in the morning, will increase to 15 to 30 mph late in the afternoon with a 2 to 3 foot swell around 9 seconds. Breaking wave heights will range between 2 to 4 feet. As a result, have opted to go with a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Would not be surprised if an upgrade to HIGH will become necessary for some spots along the Jersey Shore. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM MARINE...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/RCM