Jack Frost Ski Area snow report

105 FXUS61 KPHI 170531 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 131 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A significant warming trend will take place this weekend and continuing into next week. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees by Sunday with low 90s expected for many areas Monday through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region late Wednesday through Thursday, along with moderating temperatures closer to normal by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warming trend will take place this weekend and continuing into next week. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees by Sunday with low 90s expected for many areas Monday through Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build into the eastern US through the weekend into next week bringing a period of above normal and summer- like temperatures. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will anchor off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. This will result in a very warm south to southwesterly flow for several days bringing the warming trend. Temperatures this afternoon are warming compared to yesterday with highs mainly in the low 80s, and in the mid 70s in the usual cooler high elevation and coastal locations. Skies will continue to be nearly cloud free during the daytime hours with breezy SW winds gusting up to 25 mph. A shortwave trough will pass across the region tonight, bringing and increase in cloud cover and low end potential (10-20% chance) for showers this evening for our western areas due to weakening convection moving in. Elsewhere, there will be a chance of sprinkles as the weak system passes through. With the cloud cover and persistent southwest flow, temperatures will be slow to fall tonight. Lows are forecast to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs Sunday will climb into the mid to upper 80s inland as southwest warm advection continues. Along the immediate coast, it will generally be a good 5-10 degrees cooler. The day should feature partly to mostly sunny skies but we can`t completely rule out an isolated shower or storm as some of the CAM guidance continues to show this. The potential will be limited though due to weak forcing and relatively dry profiles. And if anything does occur though it should be limited in areal coverage and not long lasting. Temperatures continue to climb into Monday for inland areas with mid to upper 80s for many areas, and low 90s over portions of eastern PA, inland southern NJ, and Delmarva. However the flow be more out of the south to even southeast so they`ll be more of cooling influence near the coast and even extending a bit farther inland compared to Sunday. This will keep these areas near the coast mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Tuesday and potentially Wednesday could see some areas inland getting into the mid 90s but confidence on specific details becomes a bit lower by this time. The heat looks to break by Thursday. In terms of overall heat impacts, the current forecast has the urban corridor flirting with heat advisory criteria by next Tuesday into Wednesday, but that said, this particular setup doesn`t look exceptionally favorable for both very high heat and humidity. Through Tuesday, mixing should keep dewpoints from getting too high. Evapotranspiration will be limited due to ongoing drought and ocean temperatures remain cool. Long story short, it is still quite early in the season for high dewpoints to combine with high heat. By the time these numbers creep up by Wednesday, clouds and showers/storms may help knock temperatures down some. In any case, we`ll be getting close to record high temperature territory Monday through Wednesday of next week. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal by late next week following a cold frontal passage late Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region late Wednesday through Thursday, along with moderating temperatures closer to normal by the end of next week. The next few days should be mainly dry other than the limited shower/storm potential for Sunday discussed above. As mentioned earlier, a cold front will approach and likely bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures late next Wednesday. Convective activity will likely accompany that front in some form or fashion, but it`s too early to speculate on specific impacts or hazards. The front looks to linger nearby or just south of the area late next week and this could keep some showers around at least into Thursday but perhaps even Friday and beyond as the overall weather pattern will be trending towards being more unsettled. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12Z...VFR. BKN mid and high-level clouds scattering out. Winds southwest shifting more westerly at 5-10 kt. High confidence. Sunday...VFR. Winds becoming west-northwest around 12Z through 15-16Z, then shifting west to southwest around 5-10 kt. High confidence. Sunday night...VFR. Southwest winds diminishing to 5 kts or less to locally calm. High confidence. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...VFR prevailing with no significant weather expected. Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers continue through the day Thursday. && .MARINE... South to southwest winds 15-20 kts this morning. Seas will remain near 4-5 feet. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for our coastal ocean zones until 10 AM Sunday. After this time seas should be around 4 feet with winds 10 to 15 knots the remainder of Sunday. Outlook... Monday...No marine hazards expected. Fair weather. Tuesday through Wednesday...Southwest winds increase and could reach Small Craft Advisory levels by late Tuesday into Wednesday. There could also be some showers and thunderstorms over the waters by late Wednesday associated with a cold front. Thursday...Conditions expected to be back below Small Craft Advisory levels by this time but showers may linger. Rip Currents... On Sunday, southwest winds will average 10 to 15 mph, but will turning south in the afternoon behind sea breezes. There will also be breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet with a 3 to 4 feet/9 to 10 period swell. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. On Monday, winds will be more south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet with a 1 to 2 feet/7 to 8 period swell. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches. Important to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the upper 80s on Sunday and in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450>455. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/Staarmann AVIATION...AKL/Cooper/Guzzo/Staarmann MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons/MPS/Staarmann