Jack Frost Ski Area Snow Report

595 FXUS61 KPHI 240552 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 152 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low pressure developing well off the North Carolina coast tonight will deepen and move north towards New England this weekend. 2. Multiple rounds of significant tidal flooding expected into this weekend. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect. 3. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through the end of the week. Beach erosion is likely and spotty dune erosion is possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Low pressure developing well off the North Carolina coast tonight will deepen and move north towards New England this weekend. Low pressure developing well off the North Carolina coast tonight will deepen and move north towards New England this weekend. Strong high pressure remains in place across eastern Canada this evening and it will hold fast into Thursday before slowly diminishing. Meanwhile, low pressure is organizing well offshore of the North Carolina coast and it will further deepen and track northward Thursday through Saturday. The exact track that this low is still somewhat uncertain, but now overall looks to remain far enough offshore to keep heavy rains away from the region. Still, the strengthening pressure gradient between the low and departing high will create increasing NorthEast winds across our region tonight and into the end of the week. We`ll continue with the Wind Advisory for the coastal areas attm. Gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected at times. The main impacts of the approaching storm look to be Marine and Coastal-land with tidal flooding and strong gusty winds along the shore areas. Inland winds will be gusty as well (mostly 20 to 30 mph). We highlight the latest thinking with the surf and coastal flooding in the Key Messages below. Rain chances are near zero for all areas tonight, slight chance for coastal Delaware and south NJ for Thursday and then just chance (30%- 50%) for shore areas Thursday night and Friday. Slight chance pops are in there for Thursday night and Friday for the remainder of NJ/DE and eastern PA too. KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple rounds of significant tidal flooding expected into this weekend. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories remain in effect. With a slow moving coastal storm and multiple days of strong northeast winds expected, the confidence in the threat for tidal flooding remains high. Strong onshore flow that is projected to last for several days will result in water piling up across tidal tributaries and within back bays of coastal communities. Tidal levels will also be enhanced with astronomical tides increasing with the upcoming Full Moon on Saturday. This combination of factors will lead to widespread tidal flooding, some of which will get well into Moderate stage. While not currently forecast, the threat for Major flooding is not off the table, especially getting near the full moon. Tidal guidance diverges greatly beyond Thursday Night at nearly all of our forecast points. Some guidance has moderate to even major flooding for the weekend while some barely has tide levels getting into minor flood stage. It all will depend on the track of the coastal storm. No significant changes were made to the Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories that are in effect through Friday evening. However, Warnings and/or Advisories may have to be extended into Saturday depending on the exact track and strength of the low. For the tidal Delaware River, tide levels are expected to reach widespread minor today and Thursday. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the tidal Delaware River through Thursday night`s high tide. As with the areas mentioned above, widespread minor tidal flooding may continue through Friday and into the weekend. Usually, strong northeast winds do not result in tidal flooding along the upper Eastern Shore of Maryland. However, given the duration of surge in the lower/southern portion of the bay with widespread moderate to major flooding forecast there, it is becoming increasingly likely that portions of our Eastern Shore counties will experience some minor tidal flooding toward the end of the week. Our latest forecast includes Claiborne reaching minor flood stage for 4 consecutive high tides beginning with tonight`s high tide. Thus, a Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for Queen Anne`s Talbot, and Caroline Counties. Our latest forecast has also increased slightly for Tolchester Beach, and and expansion to Kent (MD) County may be considered in a future update depending on how surge values trend. By Friday and Saturday, winds shifting more northerly should help the bay to begin draining some. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches through the end of the week. Beach erosion is likely and spotty dune erosion is possible. A coastal storm developing offshore will result in hazardous conditions along the coast. The surface low will linger off our coast for multiple days, bringing strong northeast winds and high seas for our marine zones. Breaking waves within the surf zone of 6 to 12 feet are expected through Saturday. Dangerous rip currents will accompany the high surf, making it extremely dangerous to enter the water at any time through Saturday. The high surf and strong winds could also result in beach erosion across the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. Spotty dune erosion is also possible. With high confidence in the rip current and high surf forecast, the High Risk for life threatening rip currents is now in effect through Saturday for all beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for all beaches through Saturday as well. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12Z...Prevailing VFR expected. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings can`t be entirely ruled out at KMIV and KACY. Northeast winds generally around 10 kts, with 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts at KMIV and KACY. High confidence. Thursday...Prevailing VFR expected. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will remain possible at KMIV and KACY. Northeast winds 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts. 15-20 kts gusting to 25-30 kts at KMIV and KACY. High confidence. Thursday night...VFR. Northeast winds near 10 kts, with some gusts near 20 kts at times. High confidence. Outlook... Friday thru Sunday...VFR to MVFR likely to prevail. Low clouds and periods of rain possible, leading to MVFR conditions if the coastal storm moves further west and closer to our coast. North to northeast winds 10-20 kts with gusts 30 kts at times. Along the shore areas, gusts to 35-40 knots are possible. Monday...VFR expected. && .MARINE... Gale force winds/gusts up to around 35-40 kts are forecast through Thursday on the ocean. Seas are forecast to be 8-15 feet. Gale force winds/gusts up to around 35-40 kts are forecast through tonight for upper Delaware Bay and through tomorrow for lower Delaware Bay. We are expecting winds to slacken off just a bit across the bay tomorrow, especially the upper portion. Outlook... Thursday night thru Sunday...Widespread Gales expected. There is still a possibility for Storm force gusts along the well offshore waters (20NM to 40 NM) where we currently have a Storm Watch. While it looks like the possibility for this is less today than last night, we still will continue with the Watch for now. The models have been trending in varying directions with the system lately. Rain and rough seas through the period. Sunday night...Conditions expected to improve...SCA probable. Monday...Low confidence. Sub-SCA possible. Fair weather. Rip Currents...Please see Key Message 3. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for PAZ070-071- 106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ020- 022>027. High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NJZ014- 024>026. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ024>026. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ012>014- 021. High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NJZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for NJZ017>019. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ002>004. High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for DEZ004. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for DEZ004. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MDZ015-019- 020. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ430. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ480>483-485. Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for ANZ480>483-485. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kruzdlo/MPS/PO AVIATION...Staarmann MARINE...Kruzdlo/MPS/PO