Tyrol Basin Snow Report

671 FXUS63 KGRB 250713 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 213 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers and storms today through Wednesday evening. Greatest potential (40-60%) for widespread chances overnight. Low risk of severe weather, mainly late this evening in north- central and central WI. - Next chance for unsettled weather arrives this weekend. - Gusty south/southwest winds will generate hazardous conditions for small craft and dangerous swimming conditions along Lake Michigan this evening through Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 Precipitation Trends...Periods of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated from late this morning through Wednesday evening. For late this morning into this afternoon, a weak 850mb jet and increasing WAA will drive the potential for isolated showers and storms (25-35%) mainly across the Northwoods. Later this evening through late tonight, chances for showers and storms increase to 40- 60% spreading across the entire forecast area as a cold front sweeps across the area. During the late evening (after 9 PM), there appears to be a small window for a few stronger storms to move into north- central and central WI. Surface instability and deep-layer shear will be greatest northwest of the area and will be waning as the storms move eastward into the forecast area. However, cannot rule out the potential for the ongoing convection to produce damaging wind gusts and hail in central and north-central WI before weakening. The strong/severe storm potential will decrease a few hours after 9 PM as the storms become elevated. Additional showers and non-severe storms are possible Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon, as the surface cold front`s mid-level shortwave trough moves overhead. By Wednesday evening, probabilities for 0.50 inch or more of precip range between roughly 20-40% mainly across the Northwoods and Door County, with less than 10% elsewhere, but would still expect a few localized areas to receive closer to an inch of rain under the stronger convection. After Wednesday, dry weather is anticipated for the remainder of the work week with the next chances for showers and storms arriving sometime this weekend. Will need to monitor for the severe weather potential as the pattern may favor this solution on one of the days somewhere across the Midwest, but there are timing and placement differences that will need to be resolved until then. Temperatures...Throughout the week and into the weekend, temperatures, both highs and lows, will hover around normal. Highs will mainly be in the 70s to low 80s, with lows generally in the 50s to low 60s, but locations across the Northwoods could see lows in the 40s Thursday night into Friday morning. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026 High pressure will remain over the region overnight. Mainly VFR conditions are expected with only mid and high clouds present above 12 kft. Patchy ground fog is possible over far northeast WI, but probabilities of impacts at the TAF terminals is very low. Clouds increase on Tuesday as a warmer and more humid airmass move in ahead of a cold front. Ceilings should generally remain above 3.5 to 4 kft, but broken conditions are likely at times. Guidance produces scattered showers in the afternoon, mainly affecting RHI. Timing of these showers is rather difficult to pin point, but kept a prob30 at RHI after 20Z Tue. Timing will need to get refined in later forecasts. A greater chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday evening. Greater potential for impacts at RHI/AUW/CWA than the eastern WI terminals. Gusty winds and IFR visibilities will be possible in the heavier downpours. Southwest winds will increase on Tue with gusts 15-20 kts in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 213 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 A period of persistent south/southwest winds is expected this afternoon into Wednesday. Winds will gust to 25 kts, with waves building to 2 to 4 ft with some 5 foot waves possible mainly along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM Wednesday from Sheboygan to Sturgeon Bay, and 8 PM this evening to 11 AM Wednesday from Sturgeon Bay to Washington Island. These conditions will also result in a high swim risk at Lake Michigan beaches. Beach Hazards Statements have been issued for Manitowoc, Kewaunee, and Door County. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Wednesday morning for WIZ022. Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late tonight for WIZ040-050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........Kruk