Tyrol Basin Snow Report

436 FXUS63 KGRB 110549 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Record or near-record highs are expected Sunday and Monday. Inland temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 70s to mid 80s. - There is a 50 to 90% percent chance for light rain across the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. A couple rumbles of thunder will also be possible. - Chances for more widespread soaking precip possible late next week (30-60% chance), with much cooler temperatures arriving next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 With the region solidly under a very warm airmass, as evidenced by 850 mb temperatures in the upper teens, record to near-record highs are expected to continue across the region Sunday and Monday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Although the windiest conditions are behind us, gusty winds are still possible today and less so on Monday as the pressure gradient becomes more baggy. Light rain still looks on track to arrive late Monday afternoon as transient shortwave and weak low pressure traverse the upper Mississippi Valley. Current setup has a high PoP (50 to 90%) low QPF look to it, as the parent airmass doesn`t look particularly moist. As such, NBM probabilistic guidance only shows a 30 to 70% chance for receiving 0.25" of rain through Tuesday morning. The best chance for the highest rainfall amounts are currently across north-central Wisconsin (50-70% for 0.25" or more) where the best dynamics and moisture will coincide for the longest period of time. A rumble or two of thunder wouldn`t be out of the question Monday evening as meager instability (~500 to 600 J/kg MUCAPE) builds along the front, though any convective activity would remain elevated with little to no impacts. Next chances for widespread soaking precip arrive toward the end of next week as a deepening surface low and closed upper trough track from the central Plains into the Midwest. System currently has a very winter-like appearance to it, especially with potential phasing scenario at play if we are to believe the more aggressive LREF ensemble clusters. However, there is still a lot of variability this far out in the forecast period as there are some model solutions that do not phase the system until it tracks further east, which would mean little to no precipitation for our area late next week. Whatever solution ends up panning out it does look like next weekend will be a lot cooler as highs only reach the 50s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Clear/sunny skies are expected for the majority of this TAF period with high clouds gradually increasing over the area from the west late Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening. Despite a few wind gusts to around 20 kts at times tonight, LLWS will remain in place through Sunday morning until about 13-15z Sun as southwest winds of 35-45 kts are just above the surface. As mixing occurs Sunday morning, south winds will gust to 15-20 kts throughout the day. Another period of LLWS looks to develop again towards the end of this TAF issuance. && .MARINE... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Strong southerly winds will continue to result in conditions hazardous to small craft on the Bay and Lake through Sunday morning. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 25 knots, with a few gusts to 30 knots possible. The threat for gales has largely passed with this issuance. Waves of 2 to 4 ft on the Bay and 6 to 9 ft on the Lake will subside through the day on Sunday. Winds and waves then subside Sunday morning as gradient winds ease up. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Daily record and forecast high temperatures are shown below for Sunday, October 11, and Monday, October 12: High Temperatures for Sunday, October 11th: Record/Year(s) Forecast Green Bay: 83/2024 79 Wausau: 81/1928 82 Rhinelander: 81/1910,1928 81 Appleton: 82/1928,2024 80 High Temperatures for Monday, October 12th: Record/Year(s) Forecast Green Bay: 82/1918,2008 83 Wausau: 82/1995 84 Rhinelander: 81/1930,1995 82 Appleton: 81/1918,1943,2008 83. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......Kruk MARINE.........Kurimski CLIMATE........Kurimski