Tyrol Basin snow report

265 FXUS63 KGRB 130726 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 226 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across far eastern WI early this morning, ending by sunrise. - Intense heat is expected today and Tuesday with highs in the 90s with a few locations around 100 degrees. Heat indices both days will range from 95 to 105 degrees, resulting in heat related impacts. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area from 11 AM Monday to 9 PM Tuesday. - Showers and storms are possible at times from Thursday night through next weekend. It is too early to determine their severity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 The complexities of summer forecasting. A complex of thunderstorms across eastern Upper Michigan was moving into northern lower Michigan. Special Marine Warnings are in effect on the other side of the lake. About an hour ago, it looked like the showers and storms would clip far northern Door County. Since then, scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorms have developed westward across Menominee and Dickinson counties in Upper Michigan. Based on radar trends, have expanded and extended rain chances (isolated storms possible) west into Marinette and all of Door into Kewaunee county for a few hours early this morning. The rain should be out of here by sunrise. For the heat, with the expected hot temperatures forecast today and tomorrow, a few degrees difference in the dewpoint can make the difference between a Heat Advisory compared to a Heat Warning. Looking at what happened yesterday, thinking the lower dewpoints is the way to go. Bufkit soundings indicated a lot of dry air off the surface, even drier on Tuesday that will mix out the dewpoints. Also, noticed the last few days Green Bay has not warmed to the expected values on the MET/MAV guidance despite 925mb temperatures supporting the warmer temps. Based on the latest 925mb temps, have nudged down high temperatures a degree or two over central and east-central WI. Tuesday will be or maybe a tad bit hotter than today for some locations. For later tonight, heat index values are likely to drop below 75F for a few hours. The break is not long enough to worry about criteria in this case. A second day of hot temps will help accumulate heat related impacts across the region. Will have a weather story/social media post with heat related strategies to protect yourself from the heat. Based on calculated temp/dewpoints, current Heat Advisory look to be in good shape. A cool down, well relatively speaking, on Wednesday and Thursday with highs a few degrees either side of 90. Heat indices should climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s. For Thursday night through next weekend, ridge will begin to break down as temperatures return to closer to normal. There are periodic chances of thunderstorms during this time frame, however there is low confidence on when/where storms would occur. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 VFR with just a few high clouds, especially Monday afternoon and evening. Looks too capped on Monday for fair weather cu. Southwest winds 5 kts or less will become west and increase to 5 to 10 kts on Monday morning, with gusts over 15 kts at most of the TAF sites through Monday afternoon. Winds become light from the southwest again Monday evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Eckberg AVIATION.......JLA