Asessippi Winter Park Snow Report

268 FXUS63 KBIS 250548 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot conditions will return through the weekend, with dangerous high temperatures and heat index values around 100 to 105 degrees. - Smoke from distant wildfires will make skies hazy and may reduce surface visibility tonight into Saturday. - The combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions on Sunday may cause near-critical fire weather conditions in western North Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 Overall quiet weather expected through the remainder of the night. Main concern is potential fog development, with a few automated sites across northern North Dakota in the 7 to 9 mile range, so nothing impactful at this point. No changes to the forecast with this update. UPDATE Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled, and all convection has now exited our forecast area. Quiet weather is expected through the night, although some fog could develop from the James River Valley to northwest North Dakota. Already seeing signs of this as thunderstorm outflow runs into the sloping terrain in western Dickey County. UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Severe convection has propagated east into the James River Valley. The Severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled for counties west of the Missouri River in south central ND, as well as Burleigh, Sheridan, Wells and Pierce counties. The watch remains in effect for Emmons and Kidder county, as well as for the James River Valley. In addition to the trimming of the watch, we updated pops through the evening. UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph -- and locally potentially up to around 80 mph -- are the main concern in the James River valley and parts of south central ND through about 830 pm CDT. Isolated large hail of half dollar to golf ball size is still possible. As of 2330Z, earlier high-based supercells have merged into a linear convective line that extends from northern Stutsman County near Pingree, southwest to Medina and Napoleon. This small but linear convective complex is propagating through an environment characterized by 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, deep- layer shear on the order of 50 kt, large DCAPE, and 0-3-km bulk shear on the order of 30-35 kt. Several 60 to 75 mph wind gusts have been observed with this complex, and the downstream environment remains very favorable for damaging wind gusts. The highest-end wind gusts near 80 mph have been associated with large KDP cores that develop and descend from around the freezing level near 14,000 ft AGL. We will continue to rely on that signature and embedded supercells to identify which if any portions of the line may produce wind gusts over 75 mph. Those embedded supercells may also still produce large hail, though the linear mode will tend to temper that threat. One caveat to this scenario is that modest residual capping remains in the James River valley, as evidenced by MLCIN on the order of 50 J/kg in the RAP-based objective analysis. However, given the presence of an established cold pool with the linear complex, the forced lifting along its leading edge is expected to be sufficient to overcome this and maintain a severe-storm risk through the southern James River valley. The forward motion may increase a bit more, closer to 50-55 kt, based on the forward- propagating MCS motion vectors, but even linear extrapolation would have the line of storms moving through LaMoure and Dickey Counties and exiting into southeastern ND by 800-830 pm CDT. Meanwhile, the main surface trough extends from Carrington to western Emmons County as of this writing, and the risk of storms to its west has greatly diminished, as supported by recent visible satellite imagery. This includes the Bismarck/Mandan area where the risk of severe storms has diminished. CJS UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 ** Mesoscale Discussion ** Scattered severe storms with large hail up to around golf ball size and damaging winds up to 60 mph will continue across south central ND into the James River valley the next few hours. Surface temperatures of 100-105 F have sufficiently eroded the remaining capping in south central ND, especially along and just ahead of a surface trough that extends from Devils Lake and southwestward into eastern Morton and eastern Sioux Counties. Modified RAP and the 18z KBIS RAOB suggest very steep low- and midlevel lapse rates, favoring high-based storms. Moderate bouyancy and effective-layer shear on the order of 40 kt favors organized severe storms capable of large hail. Both the CAPE- shear setting, SHIP parameter and sounding analogs suggest peak hailstone sizes up to around golf ball size are possible. Both RAP and VWP hodographs are straight enough to support the occasional splitting supercells that have been observed, though the modest low-level curvature suggests that right-moving supercells will continue to be slightly favored over left- splits. In contrast, the high- based nature of the storms, with the well-mixed boundary layer up to almost 500 mb in south central ND, will continue to promote outflow that may tend toward some cluster-type storm modes at time. The hot, deeply- mixed boundary layer and sufficient low- and midlevel flow favors damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Given weak low-level shear/SRH and the very high- based nature of the storms, the tornado risk is very low. In time, the storms will gradually move into the James River valley, where surface dewpoints have held in the mid/upper 60s F owing to a deeper moist layer and less-robust mixing further away from the low-level thermal ridge axis. This may result in some gradual intensification of storms in a few hours as they reach that area, though that could also be countered by at least somewhat by residual capping aloft. CJS && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Potential severe weather remains the primary forecast challenge for this afternoon. WAA off an amplifying ridge over the Rockies, along with a passing weak surface frontal boundary, may help to initiate thunderstorms this afternoon. With rapidly rising temperatures in the southwest and south central, capping would seem like less of an issue as indicated by the SPC mesoanalysis page. This would also explain why some CAMs are initiating convection further west than previously thought. That said, the 18Z KBIS sounding shows very dry air in place, while not even a few bubbles of a cu field are present on satellite. What also seems interesting is that the left exit region of the upper level jet appears to be located closer to the International Border. Overall, there remains a conditional severe threat for the forecast area, though wondering if the better dynamics overall will wind up lining up further north and east. Nevertheless, with ample MLCAPE and plenty of deep layer shear, there remains plenty of opportunity for severe weather this afternoon and early evening. The primary threats for today remain wind gusts of 70 mph and golf ball size hail. In regard to the tornado threat, while model forecast hodographs suggest some curvature in the lower levels mainly over the south central east of the Missouri River, LCLs are also increasing. This overall seems to favor strong wind gusts over tornadogenesis from the James River Valley and west. Still, cannot completely rule out a tornado if thunderstorms were to persist into the evening hours in the James River Valley. Once any thunderstorms clear out this evening, dry conditions are expected tonight through Saturday. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday, though severe weather is not anticipated at this time. With the amplifying ridge sliding further east, expect very hot conditions to return Saturday and Sunday. Very dry conditions along and west of the Missouri River will see minimum relative humidity drop down into the teens (possibly low 20s in the Missouri River Valley) off mid 40 to mid 50 degree dewpoints, while highs reach up to 105. East of the Missouri River Valley will see highs up to 100 albeit with dewpoints in the 60s. With these very hot conditions, issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday afternoon through the day Sunday. In the far southwest where the driest conditions are anticipated, near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and possibly again on Sunday. For next week, above average temperatures are expected to continue. While there might be a slight "cooling" trend, NBM forecasts are still mostly in the 90s. Periodic low shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast for next week, with the highest probabilities during the middle of the week. A few storms could be severe on any given day, though no day next week is currently worthy of enhanced messaging at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Could see lower visibilities from fog development late tonight into Saturday morning but too low of confidence in occurrence and location to include at any terminal with this update. Also have high-level smoke continuing to filter through the region. Generally light and variable winds overnight will be westerly through the day Saturday before becoming more southeasterly late in the TAF period, and should be staying around 10 knots or less. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033- 035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-057>062. && $$ UPDATE...Jones DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Jones