Asessippi Winter Park Snow Report

896 FXUS63 KBIS 260727 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 227 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances for light rain across central North Dakota overnight. - Temperatures favored to remain near to slightly above average until late next week. - High chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening through Monday night for all but northwest North Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 An area of light rain associated with a mid level shortwave has tracked farther west than guidance had indicated, roughly along and between Highways 83 and 281. PoPs have been updated to reflected observed conditions and trends. The only other notable change for this update was to expand the mention of patchy fog to as far north and west as Mountrail County, and separately against the southern slopes of the Turtle Mountains due to orographic ascent from south- southeast surface winds. Coverage of fog was also upgraded to areas in parts of south central North Dakota where rapid refresh guidance has been consistent with reduced visibility. UPDATE Issued at 1004 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Some sprinkles and light rain showers continue to develop across central ND ahead of an upper level wave. These could linger into the early overnight hours before this upper wave makes more consistent rain showers across the east. Latest CAMs also suggesting a few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the west early Saturday morning from a passing cold front and some elevated instability. Made some minor PoP adjustments based on both of these disturbances. UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Low level moisture will continue to stream into the area this evening, bringing some lower clouds and perhaps a few slight rain showers and sprinkles. More organized rain showers are then possible tonight into Saturday morning, mainly across eastern portions. Some patchy fog is again possible tonight, although confidence is not as high as in previous nights. Overall just added in some sprinkle mention through the evening with some light returns currently showing up on radar ahead of the upper level wave. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Currently, low cloud remains across central and eastern North Dakota, with only some high clouds in the west. Temperatures were mainly in the 60s , except low to mid 70s under the more abundant sunshine out west. For tonight, most guidance suggests that the stratus will work back to the west as a south to southeast return flow strengthens over North Dakota ahead of a surface low situated over western Canada. We do not anticipated widespread dense fog like we have seen the past two mornings because of the increasing surface gradient. However, some patchy fog can not be ruled out. Guidance has been suggesting southern portions of the forecast area, and added a mention of patchy fog later tonight into Saturday morning. Latest guidance also keeps the mention of rain from the Turtle Mountains into the James River Valley and eastward late this afternoon through tonight. There is a timeframe later this evening where low pops do extend back to near the Missouri River in the south central, before shifting back to the east after midnight. With the saturated lower layers and some weak low level omega, we could see some patchy drizzle extending west of the main precipitation area, to the Highway 83 corridor. Will monitor, but too uncertain to add a mention at this time. On Saturday, the cold front associated with the Canadian low pressure system swings west to east through the forecast area. This will clear out the low stratus and shift winds from southerly to northwest. Although it won`t be much colder behind the front, it will be noticeably drier. Highs will be mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the forecast area Saturday. Look for breezy southerly winds central early in the day and breezy northwest winds over western ND late morning and into the afternoon. High pressure builds over the area Saturday night through a good portion of the day Sunday. Look for lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s Saturday night and highs on Sunday in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Another upper level trough then looks to impact our weather later in the day Sunday, through Monday night. A lead shortwave propagating through a northern California upper trough will induce cyclogenesis over the central High Plains, with an inverted surface trough extending into the northern Plains by early Monday. A northern stream wave may induce convection over the Mondak region late Sunday, and into Sunday evening. Strong bulk shear will be situated over the area. MLCAPE of 500-1000J/KG lifts from South Dakota into southwest ND Sunday afternoon. Currently we have a general thunderstorm risk form SPC Sunday. A stronger storm can not be ruled out with some hail the most likely threat due to the likely elevated nature of the storms. The entire system spreads east Sunday night through Monday. Monday afternoon into early Monday may be another potential for stronger storms as strong bulk shear weakens a little but instability maybe greater from the south central into the James River Valley. As mentioned in the previous discussion, anomalously high Precipitable Water values and possibly some training storms, may result in efficient rainers with locally heavy rainfall Sunday night through Monday night as the system works it`s way east across the forecast area. We then dry out, at least for a while with a quasi-zonal flow over the region and temperatures remaining near normal with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s through the middle portion of the workweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Low ceilings will prevail over most of western and central North Dakota through tonight, clearing from west to east during the day Saturday. The clearing may not reach KJMS until Saturday evening. Light rain showers will move northward through central North Dakota overnight, and additional showers could develop back towards KJMS. Rain is unlikely to cause categorical restrictions lower than those caused by ceilings. Patchy fog or mist could also develop late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly across southern North Dakota. Southeast winds will remain breezy into early Saturday morning. A cold front will enter western North Dakota Saturday morning, turning winds to the west-northwest around 15-20 kts with a few higher gusts. The front should reach central North Dakota Saturday afternoon, but with lighter west-northwest winds there. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Hollan