Minnedosa Ski Valley snow report

203 FXUS63 KBIS 040608 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 108 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms move west to east overnight. There remains a marginal severe risk. - Low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-20 percent mainly central and east) during the day on Independence Day. Active weather continues through early next week. - High temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Two areas of showers and thunderstorms remain over our area, with the first one over the far northwest and the other over the far southwest. The southern ones have been remaining tame, and the northern ones have weakened over the past half hour. Still, would not be surprised to see one quickly pulse up and down given ongoing instability, especially over the north. UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 We continue to monitor a linear complex of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching from eastern Montana, with additional convection now diving southeastward from southern Saskatchewan. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows around 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE in northwest North Dakota with little to no surface-based or mixed layer inhibition. CIN should begin an increasing trend very soon with diminishing solar insolation and increased anvil shading, but surface dewpoints there have risen to around 65-70 F, and surface wind vectors are generally pointed toward the approaching storms. Deep layer and effective bulk shear remain on the weaker side at around 20-25 kts, and 0-3 km shear is analyzed to be even lower. But DCAPE across the western tier of counties is still around 1100-1200 J/kg. Our expectation is that these storms will cross into North Dakota around 10-11 PM CDT at a slightly lower intensity than what is currently being observed. Maximum wind gusts in the 40-50 mph could be common, with isolated instances of 50 to 60 mph in the northwest. Recent CAMs continue to indicate that the convection has better chances of persisting and remaining stronger in the northwest compared to the southwest, and mesoanalysis trends support this outcome. UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 During the mid to late afternoon hours, thunderstorms initiated along an outflow boundary progressing eastward through south central North Dakota, including a brief severe storm over Fort Yates. The intensity of thunderstorms has dramatically decreased over the last hour or so, and the lightning observation network shows no thunderstorms at the time of this writing. Scattered showers continue to percolate over south central North Dakota early this evening, but it is clear that outflow from the mid to late afternoon convection has stabilized the boundary layer. Attention now turns to upstream convection in northeast Montana. Embedded cells within a broader north-south linear complex have been severe at times and produced locally excessive rainfall. By the time these storms reach the ND/MT around 10-11 PM CDT, the boundary layer should be decoupling, and the storms should be entering a weaker deep layer shear environment. Current analysis of DCAPE remains above 1000 J/kg in northwest North Dakota though, so would not be surprised to see some higher wind gusts (around 50 to 60 mph) with this convection. CAMs that are assimilating this convection model it to be decaying as it enters farther into western North Dakota late tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Southwest flow aloft continues today as the Northern Plains sit upstream of a broad upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. The speed of this flow in the mid to upper levels is not particularly strong which is bringing some forecast challenges in regards to thunderstorm location, timing, and strength through tonight. The convective setup is characterized by adequate low level moisture with widespread surface dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Combined with modest mid-level lapse rates, an MLCAPE field of 1000-2000 J/kg is likely, with the major caveat that it will require adequate surface heating. A batch of thunderstorms moved into the far southwest portions of the state earlier this morning while a broad stratus deck remains early this afternoon across the north central portions. This uncertainty in instability today has brought strong inconsistency between short term models and model runs today. If convection does form this afternoon/evening under pockets of stronger surface heating, a marginal severe weather threat with the possibility of 60 mph winds and quarter size hail should materialize. The weak flow aloft keeps shear on the lower end but not inadequate for severe weather. Again this severe possibility remains highly conditional with uncertainty in convective development this afternoon/evening. There remains a real possibility that the introduction of additional thunderstorms may hold off until activity moves in from Montana late this evening. On Saturday flow aloft becomes more westerly before ridging starts to set in. This will trend thunderstorm chances downward, especially in western portions of the state where dry air will move in. Lingering moisture and cyclonic flow in the central to east will come with a low but non-zero chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. The aforementioned ridging trend will bring hotter temperatures on Sunday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This ridge will be flattened Sunday afternoon and night by a crossing shortwave to the north, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms along an associated low level front. With the currently modeled moisture and shear fields as well as 00Z machine learning guidance, a severe thunderstorm threat may arise, especially in northern areas of the state. The coming week will continue to see active flow with periods of thunderstorm activity, with some shifting in model to model runs in regards to location and timing. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Ample low level moisture over the area will bring areas of MVFR to localized IFR ceilings early this morning to parts of central and northwest North Dakota. There also will be some patchy fog reducing visibility. Conditions improve to VFR through the morning into Saturday afternoon. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight, with a break by late Saturday morning. Then isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Saturday afternoon over central and parts of western North Dakota. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Hollan