Minnedosa Ski Valley snow report

732 FXUS63 KBIS 200636 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 136 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near or below freezing temperatures across much of eastern and central North Dakota tonight into early Wednesday morning. - Slightly warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Wednesday afternoon. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 The isolated shower in north central North Dakota has dissipated. Radar now shows light reflectivity approaching from northeast Montana. Haven`t seen any signs that this is reaching the ground as ceilings remain high and model soundings shows very low RH in the lower levels. Nevertheless, did add a slight chance of sprinkles to northwest and north central North Dakota through Wednesday morning. UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A little warm advection and a weak impulse along the International Border was enough to create an isolated shower in the north central this evening. Webcams showed some rain hitting the ground. Added a few hours of pops to cover this. Currently the shower is moving through Renville County and into Western Bottineau county near Lansford. Observation near Bowbells earlier indicated some IP with the cell earlier, which isn`t surprising given the cold temperatures aloft. Otherwise not much going on this evening with remaining clouds dissipating. Current dewpoints are in the low to mid 30s. No changes to current frost/freeze headlines. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 No significant changes needed for the early evening update. Winds will subside over central ND. In the west, winds are beginning to shift southerly. This trend will spread east into central ND tonight. Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening with frost/freeze highlights over all of central and portions of western ND. Increasing winds and clouds later tonight in the west are expected to limit the extent of any frost, and keep temperatures above freezing, especially in the far west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough continues to dig across Western CONUS locking in a cooler airmass across the Plains. Surface high pressure continues to move overhead. This will help clear skies this afternoon and lead to cool overnight temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s to 60s across the area. Clear skies and radiational cooling are forecast to lead to low temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s. There is a good shot of freeze and frost occurring tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of eastern and parts of central North Dakota while a Frost Advisory has been issued across parts for southwestern and central North Dakota. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60s and 70s. Wind will shift from northwesterly tonight to southeasterly tomorrow as surface high pressure shifts off to the southeast in Minnesota and surface low pressure moves into eastern Montana. This will lead to breezy conditions across the central and eastern half of the state by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the northwest by the afternoon hours as an upper level wave approaches the region. An upper level low is forecast to stall out over southern Saskatchewan Thursday and Friday. Cyclonic flow aloft will usher in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms until the end of the week. There is around 70 percent chance that that portions of western and central North Dakota could see up to 0.25 of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This cooler pattern will keep temperatures in the 60s to 70s daily until warming up by the weekend. The NBM 25th percentile begins to push the upper 70s to lower 80s and the NBM 75th percentile has lower 90s. There is fairly high confidence for warm weather to start off next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions are mostly expected through the forecast period. A few sprinkles are possible across northwest and north central North Dakota through Wednesday morning, with no impacts to aviation. From mid Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop over western and north central North Dakota. Heavier showers and storms could produce brief downpours with IFR visibility and gusty winds. Outside of showers and storms, southerly winds will increase over central North Dakota Wednesday morning and afternoon, with sustained speeds reaching 20-30 kts and gusts as high as 35 kts. In western North Dakota, expect southerly winds around 15 kts with low level wind shear through early Wednesday morning, then becoming more southwesterly around 10-15 kts through the afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ003-004-012-019-020-022-035-041-042-044-055>062. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ005-013-023- 025-036-037-046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Hollan