Challenge Mountain Snow Report

447 FXUS63 KAPX 140542 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 142 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return late Saturday and Sunday. - Dry weather expected to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Troughing will remain draped across the far NE CONUS and north Atlantic into this weekend as ridging folds over the northern Great Plains and Midwest, keeping the Great Lakes in northwest mid/upper- level flow between features over the next few days. Subsidence provided at this inflection point will continue to build surface high pressure from Ontario down into the Great Lakes today and Saturday. Aforementioned ridging eventually slides east of the region later this weekend as low-amplitude troughing slides overhead, supporting a cyclone that will trek across the Great Lakes late Saturday through Sunday. High pressure may temporarily build back in early next week before a more active pattern settles in late in the forecast period. Forecast Details: With mostly sunny/clear skies in store for the Northwoods today into Saturday with high pressure in place, the primary focus turns to late Saturday and Sunday when rain chances return to the region. Guidance indicates potential for split forcing from embedded shortwaves in the main flow -- one further south across the state border/lower Great Lakes, and a second further north across Lake Superior/Ontario. Should this be the case, northern Michigan may find itself in a relative lull in rain coverage this weekend. Earliest chances look to arrive Saturday evening with best rain chances coming during the day on Sunday. Given this potential for split forcing, it is possible that some areas of northern Michigan end up seeing little/no rain into early next week. That said, the most likely area to see steady rain during the second half of this weekend -- and low chances for localized heavy rainfall -- will be the M-55 corridor and south. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out Saturday night and Sunday. Looking ahead, dry weather looks to kick off next week before rain chances move back in closer to the middle of the week. High temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s early next week will be close to seasonal averages before cooler daytime temperatures are expected Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Predominantly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the northern Michigan terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Patchy fog is expected overnight, which may locally reduce visibility to MVFR or IFR levels for a time. Winds will generally be light through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJC AVIATION...PBB