Crotched Mountain Snow Report

871 FXUS61 KBOX 300649 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 249 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gaining confidence in the timing details for rainfall tonight into Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer with increasing clouds. Rain chances return late today into tonight for CT, RI and southeast MA. - Backdoor cold front Monday brings onshore flow, decreased cloud cover and lower temperatures. - Unsettled Tuesday through Thursday with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, with a chance for some to become strong in western MA and CT. Timing which days may have better storm chances is still uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer with increasing clouds. Rain chances return late today into tonight for CT, RI and southeast MA. Latest guidance continued to indicated a weak low pressure moving close to the region, emphasizing rainfall chances generally south of I-90 tonight. It`s worth noting, though, that showers do remain possible across all of southern New England starting in the late evening hours. There`s a low chance for some embedded thunder, but that is generally relegated to the south coast and the southern waters. Not anticipating a washout. Higher confidence that showery conditions continue overnight Sunday towards the south coast, clearing out heading into Monday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Backdoor cold front Monday brings onshore flow, decreased cloud cover and lower temperatures. Still some question as to how quickly a backdoor front will make it across southern New England late tonight into Monday. Latest guidance suite continued to favor a faster timing, leaving southern New England on the drier, albeit cooler, side. May not be quite as much of a temperature difference well away from eastern MA Cloud cover then increases Monday night with rainfall chances increasing from west to east, especially after midnight. KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled Tuesday through Thursday with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, with a chance for some to become strong in western MA and CT. Timing which days may have better storm chances is still uncertain. Tuesday through Thursday looks more active/unsettled, as the backdoor frontal boundary stalls from SW to NE through NY State and the northeast fringe of a substantial heat ridge centered over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday tries to build into the northern Mid Atlantic and perhaps into a small portion of southern New England. This places Southern New England between a more stable and seasonable airmass to the northeast and a warm/hot, humid and conditionally unstable airmass to our southwest. Above this stalled surface boundary lies a belt of strong NW flow aloft (e.g. 300 mb winds approaching 100 kt), which tends to favor shortwave energy impulses moving SE along the stalled front. Several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms seem likely during this period, but the details of which are uncertain. Those hinge on the exact placement/evolution of the frontal boundary, if we can tap into the more unstable air to our southwest, and the timing of shortwaves in the strong NW flow aloft. Machine-learning guidance from the GEFS and Colorado State show some severe weather potential for our western/southwest counties in this period, and SPC highlights a small sliver of western Hampden County and western/central Hartford County in a 15% probability for severe weather for Wednesday, uncommon for what is a Day-5 forecast. Am skeptical we get entrenched into the more unstable air to our southwest but the best potential for doing so would more likely be south and west of Worcester. Something that we`ll need to monitor as we get into the mesoscale model range. Gaining confidence in a period of showers late Monday night into Tuesday evening. There could be a brief break late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Another round of showers is possible from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Will have to see if this timing persists with later forecasts, but this is the best estimate at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. Winds shift to the SW early this morning, then increase to around 10 kt. Some occasional gusts look possible this afternoon, particularly towards the Cape and Island terminals. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR, though showers are possible across CT/RI/SE MA and into the Cape and Islands. Periods of MVFR visibilities in any SHRA that develop are possible, though confidence in timing and location is low at this time. Winds shift more NW heading into Monday morning, though remain light. Monday...High confidence. VFR. Light N to NE winds. KBOS Terminal...High confidence. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday...High confidence. High pressure continues to move offshore today, resulting in SW winds across the waters. Could see a few gusts up to 25 kt. At this time, not thinking this will be persistent or widespread enough to warrant any Small Craft Advisories, but will need to monitor this aspect of the forecast, particularly across the southern coastal bays and sounds. Dry today, with a risk for some showers and possible thunderstorms tonight. A backdoor front should cross the waters from N to S tonight into Monday morning. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Belk/Loconto AVIATION...Belk/Loconto MARINE...Belk/Loconto