Four Lakes Village Snow Report

718 FXUS63 KLOT 140834 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 334 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms with torrential rainfall may continue across areas southwest of the Chicago metro this morning. - A low pressure system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms with locally torrential rain and potential flooding late tonight into Saturday morning for portions of northern Illinois. - A stormy pattern is expected to remain in place through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Ongoing significant rainfall and potential flooding over far southern portions of the CWA should subside soon. However, continued weak low-level isentropic ascent combined with sufficient elevated instability may foster continued development across the southwest CWA through at least daybreak before the existing modest LLJ veers and decays. Will need to monitor if any MCV develops within ongoing convection over central Iowa. This would reinvigorate scattered convection with locally heavy rain late this morning into the afternoon across, with the most likely MCV track favoring western portions of the CWA. A robust convective complex currently over south-central Nebraska is significantly enhancing a mid-level wave across the central Great Plains. Based on latest guidance, the vast amount of convection is expected to turn this wave into a warm core low through this morning. This wave/low will drift along a broader ridge through tonight, with latest trajectories favoring a track over or slightly north of the forecast area late tonight into Saturday morning. Given high-end PWAT values of 2.3" to possibly upward of 2.5" and expected slow forward motion of the wave, significant rainfall rates of over 2" per hour are possible near and along the track of the associated surface wave. Additionally, strong southeast winds of advisory caliber (at least 45mph) cannot be ruled out along the southern periphery of the track. A Flood Watch may be needed for areas roughly around and north of I-80 for late tonight and Saturday morning. Will also need to monitor a threat for elevated convective linear elements capable of transporting corridors of damaging wind to the surface ahead of the wave. Another wave expected to become convectively enhanced in the lee of the central Rockies tonight will track north of the area late Saturday night, dragging a cold front with showers across the CWA sometime during the daytime hours on Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will be dictated by the expected timing of the front, with a later arrival in the afternoon supporting higher coverage of storms and a marginal damaging wind risk. High pressure will build southward over the area early next week, supporting seasonable temperatures and a decent chance of a dry stretch Monday and Tuesday. Another stronger wave and cold front will bring chances of showers and storms on Wednesday, with the front expected to stall well south of the area late in the week. Kluber && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 102 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Key aviation forecast messages: - Scattered SHRA at times through mid to late morning. -SHRA may linger beyond 18Z but the potential is <30% chance. - Reduced VSBYs to MVFR in BR outside of Chicago through daybreak. - Another thunderstorm complex is likely to move into the area late tonight-early Saturday morning. Scattered showers are expected at times through early this morning. While the focus of greatest +SHRA and TS coverage remains south of I-80, can`t rule out a few lightning strikes within the area of showers near RFD (did introduce a brief VCTS there through 7Z). This activity is drifting toward the Chicago metro terminals and may require a brief VCTS mention as well. Will monitor observational trends closely for any short fused amendments. Outside of the showers, high low-level moisture content is leading to VSBY reductions in BR as well, mainly outside of Chicago to around 3-5 SM. Did introduce a PROB30 for SHRA mid morning through early afternoon to account for what is expected to be a decayed convective complex/MCV emanating from activity developing in the NE/MO/IA border area. While the lightning threat is low it is possible that showers linger as far east as Chicago and may be paired with a period of gusty southeast winds (lower confidence). Can`t fully rule out showers at times through the remainder of the day though the potential remains less than 30%. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement in yet another thunderstorm complex approaching the area late tonight through early Saturday morning. Have accounted for this with prevailing SHRA after 8Z with PROB30 groups for TS after 9Z to account for this potential. Petr && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ILZ010-ILZ019- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039. IN...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ010-INZ011-INZ019. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago