Hidden Valley snow report

886 FXUS65 KTFX 040726 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 126 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across southwest Montana and eastern portions of central MT. - Dry and warm conditions for Independence Day. - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible again Sunday with a more widespread thunderstorm risk Monday and Monday night. && .UPDATE... /Issued 636 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026/ A minor evening update was posted to increase mention of showers and thunderstorms for a few more hours across portions of the region. No other changes were made at this time. -AM && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Broad troughing across western Canada and upper level ridging centered south of the region maintains a general west to southwest flow across the Northern Rockies and MT into next week. Temperatures remain warm as upper level ridging to the south gradually exerts a greater influence across area with the warmest temperatures likely to occur next Tuesday/Wednesday. A weak shortwave trough moving east across the area today along with afternoon heating/destabilization has led to thunderstorm development early this afternoon across Judith Basin and Fergus counties. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across southwest MT later this afternoon before the shortwave moves east of the region this evening. Warming aloft on Saturday will lead to more stable conditions with little to no risk for shower/thunderstorm development and overall warm but somewhat breezy afternoon conditions for the Independence Day holiday. A somewhat stronger shortwave associated with troughing across BC moves through the region Sunday bringing a return to afternoon shower/thunderstorm development followed by some slight cooling on Monday, mainly for north-central MT, as a cooler airmass slides south from AB. A shortwave disturbance moving around the building SW US upper ridge moves through the region Monday/Monday night bringing a more widespread risk for thunderstorms. A deeper surge of moisture accompanies the wave on Monday which may support a risk for locally heavy rain and the potential more organized/strong thunderstorms. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Thunderstorms through the rest of this afternoon will be limited to areas along/south of a line from Helena to Lewistown. Higher CAPE and surface dewpoints exist across Fergus county early this afternoon which will support a risk for a few stronger storms there before drier/more stable air moves east later this afternoon. Across southwest MT there is less low level moisture available with dewpoints mainly in the 40s leading to a lower coverage of storms with areas near the ID/WY border last to see the drying this evening. Hoenisch && .AVIATION... 04/06Z TAF Period Expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours. Some gusty winds are expected during the afternoon hours, but otherwise benign conditions are expected. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 86 55 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 80 50 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 85 56 86 55 / 0 0 20 10 BZN 85 54 87 53 / 0 0 10 30 WYS 80 43 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 84 51 86 52 / 0 0 20 20 HVR 86 56 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 84 52 83 50 / 0 0 10 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls