Killington Snow Report

248 FXUS61 KBOX 030611 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 211 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... In addition to the risk for dangerous rip currents this Holiday Weekend there will be a risk for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact the region today. The first arrives this morning and the second arrives later in the afternoon. - Mainly dry & very pleasant Fri into early next week except for some diurnally scattered showers mainly on Sat. Pleasant temps too with highs in the 70s...but lower-middle 80s Fri. - Elevated risk for dangerous rip currents for the Holiday Weekend especially by Sun into Mon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact the region today. The first arrives this morning and the second arrives later in the afternoon. Impacts from a frontal wave continue through this morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Activity overspreads western parts of our CWA between 2 and 3 AM before it overspreads the entire region by daybreak. Heavy downpours are likely with rich moisture in place. There is a marginal risk for flash flooding across western MA/CT in the Springfield/Hartford areas, but there is no strong signal for anything overly impactful at this time. Elevated instability will support some rumbles of thunder as showers move across the region, but deep layer shear and low/mid-level lapse rates do not appear to be favorable for deep moist convection capable of producing strong to severe storms. The passage of the frontal wave brings significant mid-level drying with 700-500 mb RH values falling below 35 percent. The drier airmass aloft will result in clearing and strong diurnal heating. High temperatures will be warmer than they`ve been over the last several days with widespread readings in the lower to mid 80s likely. Warmer temps and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s result in CAPE values climbing to between 1500 and 2000 J/kg around the region. Still, expecting any convection to be isolated to scattered in nature with low mid-level RH values. High-Res guidance has generally trended towards this solution with the NAM showing isolated convection. The HRRR and RRFS are a bit more aggressive and depict clusters of storms developing after 2 pm. Think the NBM has a good handle on POPs with widespread values between 35 and 45 percent throughout the CWA. Greatest chance for any storm activity will be along and S of a frontal boundary at it makes its way SE. Guidance generally shows this boundary S of the Mass Pike by 18z tomorrow thus, the greatest chance of storms will likely be S of the Mass Pike. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry & very pleasant Fri into early next week except for some diurnally scattered showers mainly on Sat. Pleasant temps too with highs in the 70s...but lower-middle 80s Fri. Upper level shortwave energy will close off over the Canadian Maritimes over the Holiday Weekend. This will carve out an upper trough over the northeast resulting in pleasant weather. Mainly dry weather expected over the majority of this time. However...some northern stream shortwave energy will probably result in diurnally driven scattered showers mainly on Sat...but can not rule out a few on Fri. High pressure building southward from eastern Canada Sun into Mon should bring an end to this risk for the latter half of the Holiday Weekend. Highs on Fri will mainly be in the lower to middle 80s...but generally 70s to near 80 this weekend into early next week. In fact...coolest days will be Sat and Sun as the eastern MA coast/Cape and Islands probably only see highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with a stiff northeast afternoon breeze. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s...but there might be some 40s in the normally coolest outlying locations by Sun night/Mon AM as high pressure builds across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated risk for dangerous rip currents for the Holiday Weekend especially by Sun into Mon. Given persistent NE low level flow and swell...we do expect an elevated risk for dangerous rip currents for the Holiday Weekend. This is especially true by Sun into Mon on east facing ocean exposed beaches. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update.. Through this Afternoon...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing. First batch of showers continues to push into the area and will make it to the BOS terminal by 07-09z. Ares of MVFR to IFR conditions as well as heavy rainfall are possible with this activity along with a few embedded t-storms. LLWS is also a concern near daybreak given a modest southwest LLJ. Additional areas of -SHRA and -TSRA are possible thru 14z as activity continues to build across NY. Bulk of the showers should exit the coast by mid-late morning. We may see a few widely scattered showers/t-storms re-develop during the afternoon...but areal coverage should remain limited. Otherwise...gradual improvement should occur in ceilings from west to east but timing remains uncertain. Some locations especially northwest of I-95 may improve to VFR by mid-late afternoon, but IFR conditions may persist well into the afternoon near the Cape and Islands. Southeast winds tonight gradually turn westerly on Thursday...mainly at speeds of 6-12 knots or less. Tonight...High Confidence. Mainly VFR except low clouds may hang tough near the Cape and Islands. In addition...we will need to watch for localized patchy ground fog developing late in the typically prone locations. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern for showers and perhaps an embedded t-storm in the vicinity of the terminal will be from 08z to 14z. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main concern for showers and perhaps an embedded t-storm in the vicinity of the terminal will be from now to 12z. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night through Labor Day: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday Night A frontal wave moves over the coastal waters early this morning. This will be accompanied by heavy downpours and possibly some thunder/lightning. Some locally stronger wind gusts to 20 knots are possible, but otherwise expect modest but steady southeast flow around 10 knots with gusts from 15 to 20 knots possible. Seas stay at sub SCY levels. Winds shift to the west/northwest tomorrow afternoon and carry into Friday with generally tranquil conditions. Tranquil conditions continue overnight Friday as high pressure builds in. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Labor Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Frank/FT AVIATION...Frank/FT MARINE...Frank/FT