La Vallee Du Parc Snow Report

128 FXUS61 KBTV 220625 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday... Have slightly increased wind gusts today with this forecast given efficient mixing of gusts 20-30 knots likely throughout the day today. Have also added patchy valley fog to the favorable locations tonight (Wednesday night) due to high pressure arriving to the region and creating favorable radiational cooling conditions over the next few days. Because of this, have also decreased lows both Thursday and Friday nights. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Lingering showers are expected today with isolated thunderstorms possible as a cold front moves through, then the weather pattern becomes drier for the latter half of the week. 2. Quiet weather and increasing temperatures are expected this upcoming weekend before another system bring showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 225 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front is crossing northern New York and Vermont early this morning, bringing a few additional showers to the area. So far about 0.50-1.00 inches of rainfall has fallen in a swath from the St. Lawrence River to the northern Adirondacks and northern Lake Champlain. A cold front is expected to cross the region this morning, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Probability of precipitation in a given location is around 50-80% in the western Adirondacks, St. Lawrence Valley, and far northern Vermont. Probability of precipitation is lowest in the souther Champlain and Connecticut River valleys, around 5-30%. Additional anticipated rainfall amounts range around 0.10-0.30 inches through the end of today, though higher precip amounts and gusty winds could occur in any thunderstorms. Outside of storms, southwesterly winds are also anticipated throughout the day today with gusts as high as 20-30 knots likely. The cold front should keep temperatures from reaching too high today, particularly in northern New York, where highs will be in the 60s west of the Champlain Valley. In the Champlain Valley and remainder of Vermont, temperatures are forecast in the mid and upper 70s, warmest in the Connecticut River Valley where the cold front will visit last. Depending on the speed of the cold front, temperatures could end up being a degree or two warmer or colder. Wednesday night through Friday night will be dry with high pressure in control. Humidity levels will be comfortable with highs in the 70s to lower 80s Thursday and upper 70s to mid 80s Friday. Lows will fall into the 40s and 50s each night, with radiational fog potential in the typical valley locations. KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure starts to shift to the east by the second half of the weekend, leading to increasing S/SW flow. The result will be warming temperatures, with highs to be mainly in the mid/upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Humidity doesn`t look too bad as dewpoints are expected to remain the upper 50s to mid 60s. Our next chance of precipitation arrives late Sunday into Monday and likely persists into mid week as upper troughiness sets up across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. Shortwaves rotating around the upper trough will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms. These sorts of features are typically difficult to nail down in timing and strength this far out, and indeed, model solutions differ quite a bit from Sunday night onward. Have stayed with the NBM/WPC forecast for now given the uncertainty, which results in chances of showers/thunderstorms each day. Temperatures look to remain seasonable through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Variable conditions expected through at least the first 6-12 hours of the TAF period. Scattered shower activity will continue through 09z, then exit to the east. MVFR ceilings/vsbys possible in any precipitation, though ceilings may drop to IFR at KMPV/KSLK. Abundant moisture will keep ceilings MVFR/IFR after the rain exits, with IFR conditions most likely at KSLK/KMPV. Any fog development is expected to be brief due to continued S/SW winds around 5-10 kt overnight. Ceilings start to improve after 15z, but additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will keep the threat of reduced visibility and ceilings through 00z Thu. Coverage/timing is not enough to include any mention of showers/thunderstorms in the TAFs at this point. S/SW winds will trend more toward W/SW and become gusty after 14z, with gusts of 16-22 kt expected. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Storm DISCUSSION...Hastings/Storm AVIATION...Hastings