Lappe Nordic Centre Snow Report

286 FXUS63 KGRB 080548 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storms chances (60-80%) early this morning through late late tonight. A few strong storms are possible this morning and again this evening and night. - Gusty winds and high waves today through Wednesday will result in hazardous conditions to small craft. There will also be an increased risk of rip currents at Lake Michigan beaches Tuesday into Wednesday morning. - Temperatures at or above normal continue into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Storm Chances Today/Tonight: A strong 40-45kt LLJ has developed over over the central and northern Plains early this morning spurring on scattered storms across central MN into far western WI. As the LLJ shifts east early this morning storms will push into central and north-central WI. There is enough (250-500 J/kg) elevated instability for these storms to continue producing lightning as well as sporadic strong wind gusts and hail through the morning. Storm activity will gradually decrease late morning and afternoon as the LLJ weakens, however, CAMs do show some isolated storms percolating through much of the day as return flow brings a narrow ribbon of moist and weakly unstable air into the region. Another uptick in storm activity is expected this evening/overnight as a cold front swings across the region. There is a marginal (1/5) risk for strong to severe storms along and just ahead of the front despite rather unimpressive thermal profiles as a seasonally strong 40-50kt 500mb jet overspreads the region. One aspect to monitor with any storms will be high rainfall rates as PWATs are expected to near 2" and warm cloud depths of 10-12kft will promote efficient warm rain processes. Storm motions will not be overly slow, so any flood threat may mainly be tied to any training storms. Along with the storm chances today expect breezy south winds with a tightening pressure gradient. There is a 30-50% chance for peak wind gusts over 30 mph across northern WI while areas in central and east- central WI may see wind gusts peak around 20-25 mph this afternoon. Rest of the Forecast: A few isolated showers may linger through early Wednesday morning as the aforementioned front pushes east of the region. Dry conditions are then forecast for the remainder of Wednesday through much of Friday. Following the frontal passage , a tight pressure gradient will develop on Wednesday leading to gusty westerly winds of 30-35 mph. The next chance of showers and storms arrives Friday night into Saturday with a cold frontal passage. Confidence is low on timing and placement of convection. Aside from near normal temperatures on Thursday, but temperatures will remain above normal. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Main impacts to aviation during this TAF cycle will center around rain/storm chances late tonight through Tuesday. Mid and high clouds will spread over the region during this time, eventually thickening and lowering to MVFR near RHI by late Tuesday morning. SHRA should arrive to the central and north-central sites between 06 and 12Z Tuesday, becoming more scattered in coverage by the time they reach the east-central sites later in the morning. Have included PROB30 groups for rain arrival at RHI, AUW, and CWA, and TEMPO groups for heavier rain with reduced vsbys. Limited the east-central sites to PROB30 mentions for the time being. Thunder will be possible at times, though confidence in timing/occurrence was too low to warrant inclusion in this TAF issuance. Southerly winds ramp up ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday afternoon. Prevailing winds will be around 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to 20 knots at all sites. Locally higher gusts may be possible near MTW. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Southerly winds will increase today and result in high waves on the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and northern Green Bay. A lull in the winds is expected early Wednesday morning, before increasing again and veering west late Wednesday morning. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft during these times. There will also be an increased risk of rip currents mainly Tuesday into Wednesday morning, until winds turn offshore. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect through 7AM Wednesday. Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed for Wednesday afternoon/evening, once the westerly winds increase. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through Wednesday morning for WIZ022-040-050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......Goodin MARINE.........GK