Lappe Nordic Centre snow report

723 FXUS63 KGRB 040754 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 254 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at times today and Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening across central and north-central Wisconsin. - Seasonal summer temperatures are expected for the holiday weekend. - Dry conditions for early next week, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Early Morning Analysis...Radar and satellite imagery early this morning showed light showers or drizzle falling out of a mid-level cloud deck over north-central WI, while the remainder of the region was dry under high to mid-level clouds. However, an remnant lake breeze off of Lake Superior has made its appearance over northeast WI with a wind direction change to the north. In the wake of the lake breeze, isolated showers developed over northern Door County. Anticipate the showers/drizzle across the north and the isolated showers over Door County to gradually end before sunrise. A few rumbles of thunder are possible over Door County given some present elevated instability, but will remain non- severe. Additionally, some patchy fog is possible at times across the region through early this morning. Today through Sunday night...Look for isolated to scattered showers and storms at times, mainly during the afternoon and evening. The energy from a mid-level shortwave progged to move over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest by late this evening, paired with daytime instability, will be the driving factors for shower/thunderstorm activity today. CAMs and other model guidance indicate the shower/storm activity will mainly be focused over central and north- central WI, where instability will be highest (1000-1500 J/kg). A lack in deep-layer shear should prevent any organization from developing, and would be more pulse-like storms. But, cannot rule out a few stronger gusts within any thunderstorms. Further east, the prevailing north/northeast winds in the wake of the aforementioned lake breeze and lack in instability should keep conditions dry for today. The shower/storm activity will come to an end as daytime instability wanes after sunset. For Sunday, the mid-level shortwave/trough will reside over the area, causing similar conditions to today with daytime shower and storm activity focused mainly in central and north-central WI. However, coverage may be even more limited due to the persistent northeast winds ushering in drier air across the region. If any shower/storm activity develops or moves into the area, it would again end as daytime instability wanes after sunset. Next Week...Models continue to agree with upper-level ridging residing over the area for Monday through most of Tuesday before breaking down from a shortwave sometime midweek. This will result in dry conditions for Monday and potentially through most of Tuesday with chances for showers and storms returning midweek. Long range global ensembles do show instability typical of early July during this time making stronger storms possible; however, there is no signal of a higher end severe event within the statistical suite of guidance. Temperatures...Seasonable temperatures are expected for today and Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s each day. Slightly humid conditions are anticipated across central and east-central WI today with dew points in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees, but will lower on Sunday to the low to mid 60s resulting in more pleasant conditions. Temperatures will then warm back into the mid to upper 80s through midweek. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 844 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Showers/storms ongoing late this evening will continue to diminish in coverage overnight, though may linger into Saturday morning. Brief lowering of cigs to MVFR will be possible if a shower or storm moves directly over a terminal. Remnant moisture near the surface may then result in patchy fog development across the forecast area late tonight into Saturday morning, though confidence remains low in fog coverage and density. Will limit any reductions in vsbys to MVFR. Another round of SCT showers (50 to 70% chance) and storms (30 to 50% chance) is expected Saturday afternoon, though conditions should remain VFR. Highest confidence for thunder chances are over central Wisconsin. Winds will start out of the south/southwest, eventually veering to east/northeast behind the lake breeze Saturday morning. Prevailing winds should remain light, though gusty outflow winds will be possible with any storms on Saturday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk AVIATION.......Goodin