Lappe Nordic Centre snow report

205 FXUS63 KGRB 190638 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong winds gusts are possible early this morning as scattered thunderstorms move across the area. - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night. - Warming back up this weekend with returning chances for showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across east- central and northeast WI early this morning in association with a passing mid-level short-wave and strengthening LLJ. The risk for severe thunderstorms is very low given weak instability, however, any storm may be capable of producing brief wind gusts of 40-50 mph and small hail. On the western back edge of these storms surface obs from SE MN and western WI are showing 40-50 mph wind gusts out of the southeast, indicative of a wake low. As the precipitation erodes to the east expect these stronger wake low winds to make it into central WI over the next few hours. Another round of showers and storms is likely later this mornings as a cold front, currently snaking from far NW WI back toward south- central MN, sweeps across the region. CAMs do show some weak instability (100-300 J/kg) building ahead of the front which could support an isolated stronger thunderstorm, however, the risk for any storms reaching severe limits is low. Behind the front steep low- level lapse rates associated with the CAA regime may spur on isolated showers through this afternoon. Any lingering showers should wane this evening as high pressure starts to build back into the region. The area should remain under the influence of high pressure for the remainder of the week leading to dry conditions. With the high overhead Wednesday night and a dry air mass in place (PWATs ~0.3") lows are forecast to fall near freezing across northern WI which may prompt the need for frost/freeze headlines. The next chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend as southerly return flow delivers warmer and more moist air back to the region. Global ensembles and long range ML products are not highlighting much of severe storm with this system at this point. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ongoing line of rain and thunderstorms is moving east across central and into northeast WI as of 0530Z. The main line has exited KAUW, KCWA, and KRHI, but a small thunder threat remains for the next couple hours from additional development to the south. Main hazard along and east of the main line over the next 3 to 4 hours will be strong wind gusts to 40 knots and heavy rain. There remains a small potential for isolated severe wind gusts to 50 knots, but expect this potential to diminish as the storms move east. Widely scattered showers remain throughout Tuesday morning, with conditions area-wide drying out after ~18Z. Most location are still VFR, but expect cigs to drop to IFR/MVFR overnight, with improvements to MVFR/VFR this afternoon. Additionally, fog off Lake Michigan will drop vsby at KMTW at times through Tuesday morning. South winds veer southwest overnight, and then veer to the west- northwest Tuesday behind the cold front, along with wind gusts to 25 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......KLJ