Lyndon Outing Club Snow Report

785 FXUS61 KBTV 080633 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 233 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 233 AM EDT Saturday... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 233 AM EDT Saturday... 1. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the day. Warm and humid conditions will persist through much of the weekend. 2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue to look likely for late Monday into Tuesday as a cold front pushes through the region. 3. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected next week as temperatures cool back to and eventually slightly below seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... As of 233 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm and humid conditions are expected to persist throughout the day today with plenty of moisture streaming into the region as we remain in between a Bermuda High and an upper low centered over Hudson Bay. Shower activity this morning continues across the region, slowly moving northeastward. Heavy rainfall has been the main concern with these storms, as several locations have received over 2 inches of rainfall within rather short periods of time, for example Essex County, NY where Flash Flood Warnings were issued overnight. Precipitation is expected to wane towards the morning, before additional rounds of convection develop later in the day. Model soundings show CAPE values of 1500 J/kg or so, with relatively low wind shear, with the environment favorable for pulse thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be garden- variety, but a stronger storm can`t be entirely ruled out. The main concern this afternoon will once again be heavy rainfall and any possible hydrological/flooding concerns, especially in locations have already received decent rainfall over the last few days. WPC continues to have a Marginal ERO across the region for tomorrow. Another round of showers is expected to move through the region tonight into Sunday, although with little instability these showers should be rather unimpactful. A brief break in the unsettled pattern is expected to develop through the day Sunday as a narrow axis of high pressure moves over the region. KEY MESSAGE 2: A brief period of high pressure will bring relatively tranquil weather to start the week, but unsettled weather is expected to return Monday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will ramp up throughout the evening, with a bulk of the precipitation expected overnight into early Tuesday.Stronger storms currently look unlikely with only modest instability and shear, but we`ll have to monitor any trends in the data if they deviate from the current thinking. Temperatures on Monday will be a few degrees cooler, with high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the region. KEY MESSAGE 3: The long wave pattern is projected to remain zonal across the Northeast through next week with unblocked flow downstream and largely the result of a massive Omega High centered over the Western US and Canada. The result will be for quick moving systems tracking through the long wave pattern bringing periodic showers and thunderstorms. The nature of this pattern will promote weaker systems and lean towards a slow cooling trend with temperatures favored to dip below seasonal averages by the end of the work week as the Bermuda High retreats southeastward. As such, highs in the 80s Tuesday will decrease into the mid/upper 70s by Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Intermittent showers will continue through 08Z for most terminals keeping MVFR CIGs/VIS potentially impacting aviators. After 08Z, any clearing will result in rapid stratus/fog formation for susceptible locations like SLK/MPV with lower potential for more widespread IFR conditions. VFR conditions return after 12Z with showers returning 18-00Z. More fog and MVFR/IFR conditions are possible after 00Z tonight, but will be dependent on how quickly clouds can clear. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Kremer/Boyd AVIATION...Boyd