Marble Falls snow report

412 FXUS64 KLZK 180609 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 109 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 -Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels the next few days. -Some potential for severe thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday. -Daily rain chances will be in the forecast through the end of the period. -Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Summer-like conditions are in place across the state early this morning as 06z observations include temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s F and Td values in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This humid airmass will linger for the next couple of days as sfc riding remains to the east of the area and H500 longwave troughing persists across the western US. This will provide steady SW flow throughout much of the atmospheric column. For today, a small piece of energy will traverse the state aloft and could provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited, but some early morning CAMs show a flourish of activity across the northern half of the state between 12-18z. Otherwise, not much concern for widespread hazardous weather today. That won`t be the case to the northwest of the state where widespread strong to severe storms may develop later today. This activity would be focused along a nearly stationary cold front situated from the OK/TX panhandles northeastward to the Great Lakes. As storms merge overnight they will begin to move southeast toward the state as the cold front makes similar progress. This activity is expected to move into Arkansas during the early morning hours Tuesday in a weakened state. Through the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday there could be some reinvigeration of this activity. The overall severe threat will be determined by how widespread the early morning activity lasts and how far it progresses throughout the day. While instability and mid-level lapse rates look favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon, shear values remain limited during this timeframe. Will begin to see the above normal temperatures relax a bit by Wednesday across the state as the sfc cold front moves southeast. The flow aloft will remain out of the SW and disturbances will continue to move along it. This will provide nearly daily chances for precip across parts of the state. This pattern looks to be locked in through at least the upcoming weekend. There will be some localized concern for heavy rainfall at times across the state the next few days as PW values are expected to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. But, given the recent short and long term rainfall deficits in place across the area, FFG values remain substantial. This will limit any major flash flood concerns for the time being. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions are present across the area to start the period. All terminals are expected to drop below MVFR CIGs before sunrise and remain there through most of the period. Recent CAM runs have been in agreement of scattered t`storms developing in NW AR Monday afternoon. Coverage remain uncertain to become full group at this time, but will continue to monitor development trends. CIGs likely to improve to VFR late afternoon to early evening Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 73 86 65 / 40 20 60 80 Camden AR 89 72 90 67 / 10 20 60 60 Harrison AR 85 71 83 60 / 30 10 80 90 Hot Springs AR 87 73 85 66 / 10 40 70 70 Little Rock AR 88 71 87 66 / 20 30 60 80 Monticello AR 88 73 89 68 / 10 30 50 70 Mount Ida AR 86 74 83 67 / 20 40 70 70 Mountain Home AR 85 71 83 61 / 40 10 90 90 Newport AR 89 72 89 66 / 30 20 60 80 Pine Bluff AR 89 73 89 68 / 20 20 50 60 Russellville AR 87 72 84 66 / 40 30 90 80 Searcy AR 87 70 87 64 / 30 20 60 70 Stuttgart AR 89 73 89 68 / 10 20 60 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...78