Mount Dufour snow report

026 FXUS63 KDTX 050708 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 308 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms again today as low pressure drifts south of the state. Bulk of activity expected south of I-69. - Locally heavy rainfall is the primary threat from these storms though an isolated damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. - Seasonably average heat and humidity to start the new work week with highs in the lower to mid 80s Monday-Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Developing scattered showers over southern MI mark the arrival of height falls tied to a mid-level shortwave pushing into northern OH. The resident humid, unstable airmass doesn`t require much in the way of forcing leading to blossoming coverage through the rest of the morning as a N/NW flank deformation coalesces over southern SE MI. The stalled frontal boundary bisecting the region sags south over the Metro Detroit area this afternoon providing a surface convergence axis to become the focal point convective initiation. Main concern with this feature is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding- both from training as the parent wave is slow to pivot across OH maintaining deformation across southern SE MI for most of the afternoon-evening, as well as slow individual storm motion as column winds are aob 15kts through 500mb. The storm environment itself is also very favorable for heavy rainfall rates with PWATs around 1.8" and warm cloud layers around 13kft promoting efficient rain processes. While the lack of column wind/shear precludes much in the way of storm organization, still can`t rule out a localized downburst as the strongest cells eventually collapse. Shortwave trough is slow to fully peel away from the southern Great Lakes tonight as the now fully closed mid-upper circulation essentially crawls across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Result is lingering light shower chances through most of the night, mainly along/south of M-59. Drier conditions look to become established by Monday morning as the system slides just enough east to shift showers over Ontario/northern Ohio with weak surface high pressure building in from the northern Great Lakes. Seasonably average temperatures accompany this high with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Above average temperatures look to make return midweek as low amplitude Plain`s ridging is folded/squeezed into the Great Lakes- Ohio Valley in response to an upper trough ejecting out of the northern Rockies. With the ridge progged to flatten as this occurs, the core of the associated hotter airmass is favored to hold southwest of the region towards the Mississippi with SE MI instead residing on its fringe. As such, this would limit the chance at seeing highs in the 90s Wednesday with temps topping out in the upper 80s. Trough eventually crosses the Great Lakes Thursday offering the next shot for the area to see rain. && .MARINE... Northeast flow holds through the day in the wake of a cold front. Winds generally remain light given a weaker pressure gradient outside of the Saginaw Bay, where the favorable fetch brings localized strong winds that range between 20 to 25 knots. As a result, a Small Craft Advisories will be in effect through the day. Some additional shower and thunderstorm chances will also remain possible through the day today under the warm and humid airmass. High pressure builds in tomorrow through Tuesday which will promote dry weather along with continued light flow. && .HYDROLOGY... A weak area of low pressure reaches the Ohio Valley today sparking additional scattered showers and storms, particularity south of I- 69. A stalled frontal boundary currently near M-59 is expected to become a focal point for storm development this afternoon over/around the Metro Detroit area. Environment is favorable for heavy rain with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr, with rates near 2"/hr in the most robust storms. Additionally slow storm motion and potential for training along the boundary could lead to areas of localized storm totals in excess of 3 inches. If this occurs there is increased potential for flash flooding especially in urban, low- lying, and flood prone areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1152 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 AVIATION... Prevailing northeast flow working into a very moist resident environment will tend to favor some degree of low cloud and/or fog formation early this morning. Latest observational trends offer some support for the southward expansion of IFR to lower MVFR stratus with time. Forecast will highlight a window for this stratus to emerge locally prior to daybreak. Existing visibility restrictions in haze encouraged by the earlier fireworks will likely linger to some degree through the night given the weak flow. Notably greater potential for shower and thunderstorm development will focus Sunday afternoon as a mid level trough lingers over the region. High likelihood for intervals of showers and thunderstorms during this time, particularly across the Detroit airspace. D21/DTW Convection...Chance for thunderstorms exists Sunday afternoon and early evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium in thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and early evening. * Medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet at times tonight and Sunday morning. Low Sunday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......AM HYDROLOGY....KDK AVIATION.....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.