Searchmont Resort Snow Report

055 FXUS63 KAPX 050430 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1230 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low-end shower / drizzle chances drag their feet into the morning south of Grand Traverse Bay this morning. - Overall trending drier with above normal temperatures through the holiday weekend into next week. - Next rain / thunder chances build by midweek next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Pattern / Forecast Synopsis: We find ourselves sandwiched between a pair of prominent features synoptically... closed, retrograding low off Atlantic Canada will allow for the amplification of 500mb ridging aloft, and thus leading to increased heights and subsidence aloft for a few days. At the surface, backdoor frontal passage well underway as drier air builds in from the northeast... dewpoints in the 50s have infiltrated eastern upper and are on the move into far northern and northeast lower, while the rest of the area has seen dewpoints settle near or just above 60... the lone exception being the far SW of the CWA, which continues to be in a juicer... TVC sitting at 66 Td, CAD holding with a 68 Td, and MBL clinging on to a 71 Td. As long as this amount of moisture remains in place, suppose a lingering shower could drag its feet into the morning hours toward Frankfort / Manistee / Cadillac, but that should be short-lived. Stationary front itself has migrated well south... stretching from roughly La Crosse, WI through Chicago and ESE through Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. As such, aforementioned retrograding low off the Atlantic will continue to drive the front SSW, and support a period of drier, tranquil late-summer weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend. Ridge axis overhead paired with increasingly deep SW return flow will drive temperatures 5-10 degrees above average into the beginning of the week (highs generally 73-83 today through Tuesday, perhaps a touch warmer Wednesday). Another shortwave surges into the Pacific Northwest early this week... perhaps bringing a dandy of an enhanced moisture plume from eastern Pacific Hurricane Marie... and drawing all that moisture over the ridge axis. Core of the wave and associated surface cyclogenesis looks to eject into the Dakotas and Canadian Prairies / NW Ontario by midweek, but will force a front into the region on Wednesday. Coupling this with potential for high humidity and (pending arrival of best forcing) instability, this will likely bring about the next shower / storm chances... with perhaps a shot at some heavy rain. Still a lot of variables to sort out before proceeding with messaging explicitly outlining heavy rain potential, so will probably ride with generic "shower and thunder chances" verbiage until this system actually moves into North America. Long- range guidance seems to want to turn resultant flow aloft to more zonal with this system`s passage... which essentially translates to a stalling frontal boundary across the Great Lakes region. Current indications are that this front looks to stall just to our south to close out the week. This conceptually would result in more of an unsettled, "cooler" but probably still somewhat humid airmass for a few days to end the week and going into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 A cluster of showers is likely to pass near/over TVC close to midnight. TS is not impossible, but it has been a while since this cluster has produced any lightning. MBL has chance of showers as well later tonight. MVFR to VFR cigs in northern lower MI, though this will thin with time, though with some fog possible after that. PLN/APN/MBL have the best chances for fog. VFR on Saturday. Light winds. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HAD AVIATION...JZ