Searchmont Resort snow report

348 FXUS63 KAPX 080749 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 349 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of shower and storm chances with the first beginning tonight and lasting through Tuesday - Hot and humid conditions begin Wednesday with a second round of shower and storm chances late Wednesday into early Thursday - Drier conditions return near the end of the work week with below normal temperatures lingering through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Current ALPW satellite imagery depicts a deep gulf moisture plume residing over the central plains and reaching up towards MN. +1" PWATs are being shown over MN, with estimates just under 2" over parts of MO/IL. A loose -PNA pattern in the upper levels exists today, with upper ridging and surface high pressure to the east and broad troughing to the west with embedded upper waves/lows moving through the flow. An upper shortwave will race northward up the central plains today, pushing that deep moisture plume into MI. SE winds near the surface will reinforce the drier airmass over NE lower today, while southerlies around 3-4 kft will advect warmer 850 mb temperatures overhead. This layer remains dry, but likely cap mixing up to here. Winds will be breezy in the afternoon hours with mid to high clouds filling in from the west and southwest. The upper wave will move the deeper moisture directly over northern MI late this evening and into the nighttime hours. RAP soundings depict skinny CAPE and 0-3km shear of around 15kts during this time. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be likely in the evening and night time hours tonight, with the stronger storms producing heavy rain. A few strikes will be possible, however the environment is more conducive to heavy rain and low end gusty outflow winds. Tuesday morning, the upper wave moves overhead and yields better instability. Skinny CAPE is still present with the deep moisture present, but chances for slightly better shear (up to 20kts) exists and some upper forcing from the wave itself. Widespread shower activity will move over northern MI with embedded storms Tuesday morning through afternoon. Heavy rain remains the primary hazard, and localized flooding becomes a possibility for areas that see repeated rounds of precipitation. Widespread quarter to half inch of rain will be likely through late Tuesday, with swaths of 1"-2" possible. A lower level boundary will move in from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring some minor shower chances with warmer and more humid air behind it. Around 18 to 20C 850mb temps move in for Wednesday with surface Td in the high 60s to low 70s. This hot and humid air mass will likely come with cloud cover and breeze southwest winds during the day on Wednesday, which should curb some of the excessive heat concerns. Clouds could keep temperatures in the high 80s (not low 90s). No matter the exact temperature, Wednesday will feel hot with heat index values well into the 90s for most spots of northern lower, high 80s for eastern upper. The storm environment will be suppressed be residing in the warm sector, however if some spots do have access to more sunlight and can reach those hotter temperatures Convective Ts will be met. Initial NAM soundings show ample CAPE with marginal shear (sfc - 3km 20kts). Stronger storms will have the potential for hail and gusty winds, as well as heavy rain. This is if storms can break the cap. Other guidance isn`t as optimistic about the environment (GFS). A large upper low will shift over MN later Wednesday, dragging a cold front eastward over the plains. Showers and storms are likely as this boundary passes Wednesday night. The environment continues to look more geared towards heavy precip with the strongest storms potentially producing strong wind gusts. Drier and cooler air will move in for Thursday and Friday. Slight chances for more precipitation this weekend, however signals are unclear at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the issuance period. Winds will increase out of the south-southeast today with gusts to 15-20 kts possible through the afternoon. Increasing mid/high clouds are anticipated later this afternoon and evening. Rain chances may move into portions of northwest lower Michigan (including MBL) prior to 06Z Tuesday, but the bulk of shower/storm chances are anticipated after the issuance period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELD AVIATION...DJC