Nakkertok Snow Report

548 FXUS61 KBTV 190622 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 222 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 221 AM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 221 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Some showers today before seasonable and dry weather into the weekend 2. Showers and thunderstorms likely Sunday and possibly into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... As of 221 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A dying cold front moves into the region today, bringing some showers. An area of rain will enter northern New York this morning, mostly being driven off the synoptic forcing. The forcing will decrease as it moves east but enough instability will develop during the day to allow the showers to continue into Vermont. A couple embedded thunderstorms are expected as well. While sufficient deep layer shear will be in place for strong to severe storms, low instability, some dry air aloft, a lack of well-defined surface boundary and morning clouds/showers will be working against it. Therefore, strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot be completely ruled out. These storms will fall apart as they try to push southeast this evening and southern areas should remain mostly dry. High pressure will build down from Canada to end the week and start the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidity. By Friday morning, temperatures should be in the 40s and low 50s for most places. Highs during this stretch will be seasonable, with temperatures rising into the 70s and low 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2: All models in general agreement that northern stream shortwave in central Canada will drop toward the northern Great Lakes-western Ontario and close with a surface low in the same vicinity Sat ngt-Sun. Still in question is whether a secondary low develops near southern New England or not. The best chance for showers/rain, no matter what scenario, will be closest to the primary and upper system in Canada, thus for our CWA being northern NY beginning early Sunday AM and lasting through the day with cold pool and some instability allowing for some -tsra as well. Less activity expected for VT but showers still likely after daybreak Sunday. Some residual -shra chances Sunday night and some instability -shra possible Monday in northern areas closer to closed low. Still in cyclonic flow for Tuesday with some weak mid-level energy so can`t totally rule out a chance of showers but more in the slgt chc column for now. Temperatures for the period seasonable to a few degrees below. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...The return of radiation fog is possible early this morning around 06Z-13z, IFR possible for a couple hours at the typical sites SLK and MPV. Approaching cold front will bring showers to northern NY but weaken in coverage and intensity as they move east late this morning and aftn. VFR conditions expected despite any showers. Winds will be S-SW at 5-10 kts for most but some channel flow in the St. Lawrence Vly may bring g20 kts to KMSS. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Myskowski DISCUSSION...Myskowski/SLW AVIATION...SLW