Nelson Nordic Snow Report

543 FXUS66 KOTX 120619 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1119 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain returns late Saturday night through Sunday. Most of the Inland Northwest has at least a 70% chance of receiving half an inch or more of rain with this system. - Small risk for debris flows and rock slides in Central Washington near sensitive burn scars and steep terrain. - Isolated thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday, especially for Eastern Washington and North Idaho. - Warming and drying trend Monday through Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70s-80s by the end of the week. && .SYNOPSIS... Saturday will be dry through the afternoon, then rain will begin moving in from the southwest late Saturday night, spreading across the region by Sunday morning. Widespread rain chances persist through the day Sunday, accompanied by isolated thunderstorm chances and gusty winds. Conditions trend warmer Monday through Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Inland Northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Saturday morning and afternoon: Conditions will remain dry through much of the day Saturday with afternoon high temperatures in the 70s for most locations. Mid and high level clouds will increase ahead of an incoming low pressure system, bringing overcast skies at times. As the low approaches, a tightening east to northeast pressure gradient will result in breezy northeast winds with sustained speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts around 25 mph across the Idaho Panhandle, West Plains, and Columbia Basin. Saturday night through Sunday night: The aforementioned upper- level low pressure system will track inland, ushering in a stream of moisture-rich air. Strong synoptic forcing combined with the saturated airmass will bring much-needed widespread rainfall across the Inland Northwest. Latest guidance has shifted the heaviest precipitation amounts west and north with the focus now over Central WA. It`s worth noting that models have been inconsistent in their predictions of the track of low and the location of the heaviest precip amounts over the past several days, so it`s very possible that the predictions will change again. There is high confidence that most locations will see measurable precip, but significant uncertainty remains regarding total precip amounts. Overall, rainfall amounts have continued to trend higher, but there are still substantial differences between the high- end and low- end amounts predicted by the models. For example, model runs from this time yesterday showed the 10th percentile (low- end) rain amount forecast for Spokane was 0.1 inches, while the 90th percentile (high- end) amount was 1.4 inches. Today`s model runs have increased the low-end amount to 0.4 inches and the high-end amount to 1.5 inches. Still a big range! The NBM`s chances for 1 inch or more of rain from Saturday evening through Monday morning are as follows: - 50-80% for Central WA - 40-60% for Eastern WA - 40-70% for ID Panhandle Temperatures Sunday will be well below normal in the 50s and 60s. Monday through Thursday: High pressure builds into the region as the weekend system exits to the east. Temperatures will gradually return to near seasonal normals in the 70s to low 80s by late next week with dry conditions expected. Fog potential will be something to monitor Monday morning with a moist boundary layer following all of the weekend rain. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour period with a blanket of mid and high level clouds across the region. Winds will be light with diurnal influences through 06z. After 06z, we will see a subtle shift toward northeast to north winds which become 10kts or stronger for KSZT-KCOE-KOMK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through the period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 72 49 56 45 / 0 90 100 70 Coeur d`Alene 70 49 55 45 / 0 70 100 90 Pullman 76 48 56 47 / 0 90 100 90 Lewiston 81 56 65 48 / 0 90 100 80 Colville 77 50 58 46 / 0 50 100 70 Sandpoint 69 48 53 46 / 0 60 100 90 Kellogg 68 46 53 43 / 0 60 100 100 Moses Lake 78 54 60 44 / 0 100 90 20 Wenatchee 77 55 64 49 / 0 100 100 10 Omak 79 54 66 47 / 0 50 90 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$