Ober Gatlinburg Ski Resort snow report

791 FXUS64 KMRX 080631 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 231 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 228 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 - Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash flooding is expected today, especially over East Tennessee and potentially southwest North Carolina. - Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the remainder of the work week especially in the afternoon/evening hours. A low risk exists for localized flash flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Still looking like today will be the most likely timeframe of the week for flash flooding, but it is by no means a certainty to see flooding. The presence of near record precipitable water values, combined with the weak upper troughing, should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been pretty persistent in showing this scenario, even if their direct QPF output isn`t necessarily worrying. Still though, with the highly saturated environment, tall skinny CAPE profiles, and high freezing levels will allow for generous hydrometeor production (fancy talk for lots of rain drops). WPC`s excessive rain outlook has us in a slight risk, which seems pretty reasonable given the CAMs` persistent scattered nature. Storms may begin firing early this morning and then chances will remain high for much of the day, before sunset likely brings about widespread dissipation of the storms. Shear values are pretty low given the overall weak wind profiles above us, so not expecting severe thunderstorms. As we progress through the week, we`ll keep our muggy atmospheric profiles, but we`ll gradually lose the little forcing we have as ridging builds aloft. Guidance struggles to fire anything on Thursday, and that may well be the lull day of the week in terms of coverage. The other days all have low to medium high chances for at least some scattered activity, though terrain may be what fires first before the valley later into the afternoons. Given the high moisture content hanging around, a non-zero flood risk will exist for the week as well. As we hit the weekend we`ll be looking for signs of any upper support from the jet to our north over the Great Lakes or any weak shortwaves in the flow aloft to help bring relief or a pause in the June weather. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 Variable aviation conditions are expected for the rest of the night as rain moves in again from the south. CHA has bounced between VFR and MVFR and is expected to return to MVFR as the prevailing through the morning hours. With increasing rain chances, periods of IFR are likely. A similar trend is expected at TYS and TRI but to a lesser degree and later into the daytime. TRI is likely to remain VFR, but some periods of MVFR can be expected. Winds will again be from a southerly to WSW direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 69 85 69 / 90 60 60 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 68 84 69 / 90 40 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 80 68 83 68 / 90 40 60 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 83 66 / 70 40 70 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flood Watch from 7 AM EDT this morning through this evening for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flood Watch from 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ this morning through this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley- Campbell-East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Union-West Polk. Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock- Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke- Northwest Greene-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan- Unicoi-Washington TN. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wellington AVIATION...BW