Peek'n Peak Ski Area snow report

631 FXUS61 KPBZ 220640 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 240 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe thunderstorm chances have increased slightly for today, as the SPC Slight and Marginal Risk areas have expanded a bit northwest. Uncertainty remains regarding where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up today, but trends indicate it may be south of Pittsburgh, potentially in northern West Virginia. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today through this evening. Risks for isolated severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding remain. 2) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure is forecast to ride from Illinois up the Ohio Valley today, reaching western PA by 18Z. This will push a warm front into our region ahead of the low, before a following cold front crosses during the late afternoon and evening. Light rain has already spread into western parts of the CWA, fed by warm advection/isentropic lift ahead of the boundary. This rain will continue to spread eastward through the morning, perhaps with slowly increasing rates as increasing moist advection starts to bring higher buoyancy/potential for more convective showers. Rain totals through 18Z are mostly expected to remain below a half-inch. There may be a brief relative break in precipitation during the midday hours, especially in areas that get into the warm sector. This afternoon, as the warm front moves north, moisture maximizes in areas south of Pittsburgh, with precipitable water maximizing in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. Despite abundant cloud cover, surface-based CAPE is expected to build above 1000 J/kg southeast of a rough DUJ/PIT/ZZV line (40% or greater chance on HREF progs). Expected 0-6km shear of 30-35 knots should be sufficient for storm organization into clusters/lines ahead of the advancing cold front. Damaging winds are the most likely severe threat in this scenario. A low tornado threat exists where convection could potentially take advantage of locally backed flow in the vicinity of the warm front, most likely southeast of Pittsburgh, where the SPC Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms exists. More isolated potential exists in the rest of the CWA for damaging gusts. The noted precipitable water levels suggest efficient rain- producing storms, as does decent low-level sounding saturation and warm cloud depths. However, storm motion should help to limit the heavy rain threat to some degree. CAMS are also still in disagreement as to where the heaviest corridor of precipitation may set up. REFS/HREF do suggest maximum total rainfall potential of 2 to 3 inches in the heaviest cases where training could occur in the vicinity of the warm front. Such rainfall totals could cause localized flood issues. However, given the spatial uncertainties and storm motion, think that the threat remains isolated enough for now to hold off on a Flood Watch issuance. If later CAM runs focus heavy rainfall more favorably on a region (most likely target zone: northern West Virginia), then a short-fuse Watch could be considered. The passage of the cold front tonight should decrease coverage of showers and storms from west to east, likely pulling out of the southeastern ridges overnight. A developing subsidence inversion will likely lock in low-level moisture, producing stratus and fog late tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure builds in the wake of the departing low, and after a potentially dreary sunrise Tuesday, dry weather and a trend towards seasonable temperatures is expected through Wednesday. High values should reach the upper 70s to around 80 by midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Light rain is already moving into the region ahead of an advancing warm front, but lower levels remain dry enough for now to maintain VFR conditions initially. Continued warm advection and low-level moistening will slowly lower ceilings with time. Most of the rain will remain light and non-restrictive through sunrise. Showers may invigorate shortly thereafter in the 10Z to 14Z window, potentially bringing brief MVFR restrictions. Thunder chances during this window remain too low for mention. After these early morning showers, a lull in precipitation is most likely during the late morning, providing a modest opportunity for atmospheric recovery. Given the lack of a capping inversion, any meager heating will quickly invigorate ceilings in the MVFR range by 16Z, and showers quickly thereafter. The degree of afternoon destabilization remains in question, but appears most likely to the south of PIT. Thus, more restrictive TEMPO thunderstorm potential is presented here, mostly in the 18Z-23Z window. From PIT north, higher uncertainty in convection leads to the use of PROB30 and MVFR-only restrictions in thunder. Activity will decrease from west to east after 00Z as a cold front crosses. However, a developing subsidence inversion should lock in low-level moisture, producing IFR conditions in stratus and fog after sunset and continuing through the night. Outlook... VFR conditions are likely to return Tuesday after the morning fog and stratus burn off. The next chance for widespread restrictions will be Thursday with increased precipitation potential. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...CL