Holimont Snow Report

658 FXUS61 KBUF 290522 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 122 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased POPS Sunday afternoon with a faster and farther south warm frontal position in latest guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather will prevail today through Sunday morning before the chance of showers increases Sunday afternoon and evening. 2) The pattern will become unsettled Sunday night through the middle of next week with increasing humidity and several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Dry weather will prevail today through Sunday morning before the chance of showers increases Sunday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning will bring a cool start to the day following a night of strong radiational cooling. Expect some patchy fog through early to mid morning, mainly across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies today with a few patches of mid/high clouds at times. Temperatures will warm to within a degree or two of average this afternoon following the cool start to the day. Dry weather will continue tonight with increasing clouds from west to east as a warm front develops upstream across the central Great Lakes. Some patchy fog may develop overnight across the river valleys of the Southern Tier. Sunday will start dry with any showers remaining north of the area on the Canadian side of the border. Latest model guidance continues to trend faster and farther south with the arrival of the first rain chances Sunday afternoon, necessitating an increase in POPS. A ridge will continue to build over the central US, while a sharp mid level trough digs southeast across Quebec. The interaction of these two features will result in thermal packing across the Great Lakes, allowing a WNW to ESE oriented warm front to develop and strengthen from the upper Great Lakes to NY by Sunday afternoon and evening. The stronger frontogenetic forcing and moisture transport will be found across the upper Great Lakes Sunday afternoon and evening, but enough moisture and weak forcing will spread into the eastern Great Lakes to support a chance of a few showers by afternoon. Key Message 2...The pattern will become unsettled Sunday night through the middle of next week with increasing humidity and several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Monday through Tuesday, a strong/hot ridge will remain in place across much of the Central US and extending into the lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a trough will persist across Quebec. A frontal zone with a seasonably strong thermal gradient will remain in place from the upper Great Lakes to NY/PA through early next week, meandering north and south at times with passing shortwaves. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms and their associated cold pools may also modulate the frontal position at times. The periodic forcing from passing shortwaves along with persistent moisture convergence along the frontal zone will support several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday. Instability will likely be limited during this period, keeping the severe risk low. The pattern may become more conducive to severe weather potential by Wednesday as a strong Pacific shortwave moves east across southern Canada. An EML plume is forecast to be advected northeastward across the Ohio Valley and may reach the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday. This feature will combine with an underlying warm/humid airmass to support the potential for moderate to strong instability as the shortwave passes by to the north and resultant flow adjustments bring increasing shear profiles. The severe weather potential for Wednesday will continue to be monitored in the coming days as the details become more clear. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure overhead early this morning will support mainly clear skies and light winds. Patchy fog and local IFR will continue through early to mid morning, mainly across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. VFR will prevail today after the early morning fog burns off, with a few patches of mid/high clouds at times. High pressure will drift off the southern New England coast tonight. Mid/high clouds will increase from west to east as a warm front develops upstream over the central Great Lakes. VFR will prevail outside of some patchy for and local IFR across the Southern Tier river valleys. Outlook... Sunday...Local IFR in Southern Tier river valley fog early, otherwise mainly VFR. Increasing and lowering clouds with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and scattered thunderstorms at times with local/brief IFR conditions. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will drift east and off the southern New England coast through tonight. A modest southwest flow will prevail on both lakes through the weekend with sustained wind speeds generally 12 knots or less and waves 2 feet or less. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock