Holimont Snow Report

889 FXUS61 KBUF 200646 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 246 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Tuesday night. Some storms may be severe. 2) Cool Wednesday, with a chance of a few lingering showers or thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...A strong cold front will bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Tuesday night. Some storms may be severe. A mid/upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region through Tuesday night. A surface low in northern Ontario will pivot around the southern shore of James Bay while a cold front moves across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday night. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to arrive Tuesday morning. Elevated convection will likely be decaying as it moves into western NY. Deepening wind fields and a moisture plume are expected across the region Tuesday. Surface based CAPE of 1000- 2000 J/kg will provide ample instability through the afternoon and scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a pre-frontal trough and lake breeze boundaries late Tuesday morning through afternoon. The SPC has a Slight Risk for the forecast area with damaging winds as the main threat. Curving hodographs in a moist environment favor some supercells and large hail and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Locally heavy rain is possible, with a signal that training thunderstorms could produce localized flooding from the western Finger Lakes region to the eastern Lake Ontario Tuesday afternoon into evening. The warm and moist environment will persist into Tuesday evening and additional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible until the cold front moves through overnight. Key Message 2...Cool Wednesday, with a chance of a few lingering showers or thunderstorms. A closed low will set-up over southern Quebec Wednesday. A much cooler airmass will settle across the forecast area. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s across the higher terrain to the low 70s across the lake plains. Steepening low level lapse rates within a westerly flow will support scattered showers through the afternoon. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Patchy fog is expected to develop early this morning. It will be mostly confined to the valleys across the western Southern Tier, western Finger Lakes region, and eastern Lake Ontario region. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at KJHW, with a lower risk at the other terminals. After fog erodes this morning, widespread VFR conditions are expected through tonight. South winds and mid to high level clouds increase late tonight. Outlook... Tuesday...Restrictions likely in periodic showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...Restrictions likely with lingering showers. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Light winds and waves will continue on the waters today. South-southwest winds will begin to increase on the Lakes tonight. Waves will build offshore with higher waves moving on the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline. Small Craft conditions are expected on both Lakes Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region and winds will become northwest Tuesday night. Small craft conditions will likely continue on Lake Ontario through Wednesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the region Tuesday. Some thunderstorms could be capable of strong wind gusts. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK