Cockaigne Ski Resort Snow Report

639 FXUS61 KPBZ 090611 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 211 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast have been made, as we remain on track for an active weather pattern through much of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining thunderstorms will exit to the east prior to sunrise. A dry reprieve is then forecast for the daytime hours. 2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday and remain in the forecast through at least Thursday with both the potential for strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Thunderstorms continue to the south and east of Pittsburgh during these predawn hours, as elevated instability continues ahead of an advancing shortwave trough. Low, but non-zero risk for gusty to marginally severe wind will continue with these storms until they exit the region by 09Z or so, as the shortwave departs and a surface boundary enters the region. After the storms exit, clearing and a moist ground may allow for patchy fog/stratus development in the hours leading up to sunrise, especially in locations that received heavy rainfall. These would mix out by mid-morning. After sunrise, surface ridging and mid-level capping will suppress convective development through Sunday and into the evening, providing a welcome break from the daily storm chances. This will occur even as the front potentially stalls in our region, which will likely have implications beyond today. A drop in dewpoints, mainly into the mid 60s, will also provide a reprieve from the sticky conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2... Daily shower and thunderstorms chances return for Monday and beyond. Very broad troughing will remain in place until at least Wednesday before a stronger shortwave deepens the trough over the Great Lakes. With prevailing W-NW flow and disturbances passing through the upper pattern, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for more organized convective complexes as hinted to in some of the guidance. The first of these, occurring late Sunday night into Monday morning, appears most likely to dive its most impactful storms west of the CWA, into central/western Ohio, according to most of the HREF component members. At least scattered showers and storms may arrive after 06Z, but are most likely to remain non- severe given the time of day/likely lack of sufficient instability. Exactly what happens later on Monday remains murky, and will largely depend on the environment/boundaries left behind by the morning complex, as well as potential reinvigoration of its remnants. Also, the position of the front that stalls in our region today may play a role in determining where the best chances for additional development may occur. The environment will certainly be sufficient to support severe storms, with 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE possible, and with around 30 knots of 0-6km shear supporting storm organization. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat, but hail and tornado risks also are present. Also of note: given the continued presence of above- normal precipitable water values in a climatologic sense, as well as the potential for some training storms along the boundary, WPC continued to highlight our region in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for excessive rain for Monday into Monday night. The eventual need for a Flood Watch cannot be ruled out. Severe/heavy rain risks continue for Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday as well, as the boundary may continue to waver around the area in a moist, unstable air mass. Machine-learning guidance is in support of this. The stronger Great Lakes shortwave may finally push the boundary definitively south of the region by Thursday/Friday, leading to less threatening weather. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Remaining thunderstorm activity will exit the region by 09Z as a shortwave exits the region, and as a weak front drops into the region. MGW is the lone terminal that may experience MVFR/IFR impacts from heavy rain from these at this point. Clearing sky and light wind may lead to patchy MVFR/IFR fog and stratus development leading up to sunrise. Confidence in timing and coverage of these restrictions remains fairly low confidence. Any restrictions should improve by 15Z due to daytime mixing. VFR conditions are then confidently forecast for the remainder of the TAF period as surface ridging and mid-level capping prevent convective development through this evening. Outlook... Active weather returns Monday through the later half of the week with varying rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Timing of storms for a given day is likely to be of lower confidence and dependent on upstream storm progression. Most restrictions during this period will be tied to storm activity and/or morning fog/stratus resultant of rain plus overnight clearing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Frazier/CL