Red Hill Outing Club Snow Report

674 FXUS61 KBOX 100817 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 417 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and humidity continues through Tuesday. Relief from the heat & humidity comes late week. - Unsettled weather continues this week with shower and thunderstorms chances returning this evening as well as Wednesday night/Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and humidity continues through Tuesday. Relief from the heat & humidity arrives for the weekend. After a brief respite from the humidity this morning, dewpoints will start climbing back into the upper 60s to low 70s once the sun comes up. Temperatures should be a tad cooler today.... roughly 85-89 instead of the 90+ we`ve been seeing lately. Humidity will linger through Tuesday, but both temperatures and dewpoints will slowly begin to trend lower throughout the week, bringing much needed relief to southern New England by Friday. High temps heading into the weekend likely near 80 with dewpoints dropping into the 50s, possibly even the 40s in the higher elevations. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues this week with shower and thunderstorms chances returning this evening as well as Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A passing cold pool across northern New England should help to generate CAPE values of 750-1,250 J/kg by late this afternoon. Combined with a one-two punch from a passing warm front and trough axis moving through southern New England, some scattered showers and thunderstorms could pop later this evening. CAM guidance is once again struggling to resolve these storms, with some models indicating storms over NW MA, others show W CT, and others still keep storms confined to the Albany/NYC metro regions. Confidence is on the lower end as far as timing and placement, but currently thinking late afternoon into the sunset hours with highest chances for a strong to severe storm forming along the CT River Valley. A few showers could stray as far east as the ORH-PVD corridor; however, if these showers move that far east, they should be sub- severe. Tuesday and Wednesday should remain dry and mostly sunny, pleasant days. But by Wednesday night/Thursday morning, a low pressure system sitting over the Hudson Bay will be pushing south/southeast into southern Quebec and New England. A few associated upper-level shortwaves and a cold front will likely be the catalyst for another round of thunderstorm chances; however, the main limiting factor will be the time of day the front pushes through. If the front hits the eastern MA coast by early Thursday afternoon, we`d expect weaker instability and a lower thunderstorm risk. However, if the front stalls or moves slower, then the risk for storms would increase, and so would the chance for any one storm to reach severe levels. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Today: Generally high confidence, but moderate confidence on timing TSRA and seabreezes. Mainly VFR; hazy-looking skies from smoke could return later this afternoon. TSRA looks to develop late in the day, starting as soon as 20-21z at BDL and ORH, then move E/ESE through 02z, and these could be strong with brf IFR visbys and strong winds. Indicated VCTS for BDL/ORH as these two TAF sites have best shot at TSRA with PROB30 at PVD. Lower confidence in showers reaching BOS. Light NW winds flip to SW around 5-10 kt; BOS looks to seabreeze to an ESE direction around 5-10 kt, but it could be short-lived than a typical seabreeze with SW winds around 10 kt shown by 21z. Toight: High confidence. VFR. SW winds shift to W around 5-10 kt after TSRA ends/moves offshore after 03z. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Generally VFR. Possible BKN250 develops this afternoon if enough wildfire smoke reaches the region. Seabreeze likely around 15z, but lower confidence on when it will kick back SW. SHRA/TSRA possible after 23z today, but confidence is too low to include in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Generally VFR. Possible BKN250 develops this afternoon if enough wildfire smoke reaches the region. Higher chance of TSRA after 20z. Any storms that do form could be on the stronger side with gusty winds, frequent lighting, and brief IFR visbys. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday... High Confidence. Winds return to SW this morning. Local sea breezes along the east coast of MA. Relatively light seas across the waters through tonight. Could see some breezy winds near 20kts later this evening into Tuesday morning. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McMinn AVIATION...McMinn MARINE...McMinn