Ski Montcalm Snow Report

013 FXUS61 KBTV 140608 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 208 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 208 AM EDT Friday... No notable changes were made to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 208 AM EDT Friday... 1. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm will clip southern portions of our region today, while otherwise sunny conditions and low humidity will build in through the first part of the weekend. 2. Showers with a low chance of thunderstorms are expected late Sunday into early Monday. 3. Near seasonable temperatures with a chance of showers mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 208 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Over the past few days, the signals for showers associated with a vigorous shortwave trough have been uncertain for Friday. There had been a trend for no precipitation with too much dry air in place ahead of this wave, but the trend in recent model runs has reversed such that it is becoming likely that yet another interval of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a thunderstorm or two will traverse our region. This time, it seems like only our southern areas, primarily the southern half of St. Lawrence County and perhaps as far north as portions of the northern Adirondacks and south central Vermont, are in the crosshairs. Representative forecast soundings show only about 400 - 600 J/kg CAPE ahead of the showers, yielding a lower chance of thunderstorms than in previous days. The associated low hourly probabilities of thunder in the HREF-calibrated guidance (barely reaching 10% in a small swath of the aforementioned area between 4 and 5 PM) look reasonable. As in recent days, inverted-V soundings suggest that the showers and thunderstorms will produce gusty winds with perhaps a stronger wind gust with an isolated storm. The lower CAPE further reduces the chances of any severe weather today where these showers and storms track. Finally surface high pressure builds in enough to bring chances of rain down to zero areawide this evening through Sunday morning. As such, through this period seasonally typical valley fog each morning will provide the only potential weather hazard. KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence continues to increase on a period of widespread showers with a few downpours in the Sunday evening/overnight timeframe as an area of low pressure passes near or south of our region. The latest blend of guidance shows area average rainfall near 0.5" to locally 0.75" for most locations, with most of it occurring during the first part of the night per model consensus. Ensemble support for heavy rainfall continues to focus well to our south, but we will be on the northern fringe of well above normal precipitable water coincident with a surge of integrated water vapor transport out of the west. The most anomalous moisture appears to be at the mid-levels/700 millibars where strong warm air advection will occur, which is consistent with forecast soundings showing elevated instability above that layer. So some rumbles of thunder will be possible despite minimal surface-based instability during the event, with a tongue of this instability generally pushing northeastward with time Sunday evening per consensus of the 00Z guidance. The situation for Monday is hard to parse with regards to how the weather will evolve. It continues to look like there will be a trough digging slightly across Quebec that will drag a weak cold front through our region in the wake of the low pressure system discussed previously. Near surface moisture should increase somewhat while deep moisture decreases relative to Sunday night, and diurnal heating should lead to some destabilization as a boundary or boundaries pass through. Forecast soundings suggest there may be too much dry air aloft for parcels of air to rise sufficiently to produce cold cloud tops, so at this point a slight chance of thunderstorms looks reasonable. Altogether, there are mixed signals on thunderstorm chances but scattered showers seem reasonable with precipitation most favored in higher terrain. The blend of models shows only around 20% chance of thunder Monday afternoon in Vermont and closer to 10% in northern New York. KEY MESSAGE 3: Pretty much remain in a broad cyclonic flow that is dominating the Great Lakes-NY-New England. Heat ridge remains mainly across southern-southwest tier of CONUS. Our CWA is far enough from the periphery of the ridge that we stay largely influenced by the northern stream flow with seasonable temperatures and a chance of showers now and then. The best chance for showers after Sun-Mon departing system will be late Wed-Thu. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly SKC with areas of fog and low stratus to develop in climatologically favored valleys between 06Z and 13Z. This includes KSLK and KMPV. Outside of those TAF sites, cannot rule out fog or low stratus developing in sites that picked up some rain today, especially KEFK. Although predominately VFR overnight for KRUT, KPBG have introduced some fog and possibly MVFR-IFR for KMSS and KBTV. Fog will lift at sunrise and conditions will improve to widespread VFR after 13Z. shortwave may bring a brief chance of showers aft 18z across KMSS, KSLK and KRUT. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/SLW AVIATION...SLW