Snowhaven Ski Area Snow Report

570 FXUS65 KMSO 221820 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1220 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Strong thunderstorms today through the afternoon and evening. Gusty outflow winds as the main threat. - Cold front Sunday brings cooler temperatures but gusty westerly winds and dry air. - Ridge rebuilds early next week, warming and drying trend. Partial clearing across southern and central Idaho has allowed for diurnal heating and weak instability by midday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increasingly initiate over higher terrain early this afternoon over Idaho and Lemhi counties and track northeastward. Multiple rounds of convection will persist through the evening, particularly across northwest Montana. The primary hazard will be gusty outflow winds of 35-45 mph, with a Marginal Risk (5% probability) for isolated severe gusts exceeding 58 mph. Frequent lightning (posing a threat for new fire starts) and small hail remain secondary concerns. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near 1.0 inch, anomalously high for the region will yield a localized threat for excessive runoff and flash flooding over steep terrain, urban centers, and burn scars. Elevated instability will persist overnight across western Montana, maintaining the potential for isolated thunderstorms into early Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the Northern Rockies late tonight into Sunday, bringing brief thermal relief as daytime highs drop 10-15 degrees to near seasonal averages. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind the front will combine with a dry post-frontal airmass to yield gusty westerly winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the region Sunday afternoon, potentially critical for parts of southwest Montana. Ridge rebuilding early next week will mark a return to hot and mostly dry conditions, though isolated afternoon thunderstorms remain possible in Lemhi County and southwestern Montana. By mid- to-late next week, ensemble cluster analysis indicates 70% confidence in a return to a trough over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern would support cooling with seasonable daytime temperatures, breezy afternoon winds, and scattered showers/thunderstorms (although not a particularly wet pattern). && .AVIATION...Partial clearing across southern and central Idaho will promote weak destabilization this afternoon, supporting scattered strong thunderstorms tracking southwest to northeast between 22/1900Z and 23/0400Z. Direct convective impacts will include erratic outflow gusts of 30-40 kt, small hail, and localized MVFR visibilities in brief heavy downpours. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) and localized turbulence are expected near storm cores. Widespread VFR conditions will return post-frontal on Sunday, though deep boundary-layer mixing will yield gusty westerly surface wind gusts of 20-30 kt. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Sunday for Kootenai...West Lolo. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead. ID...None. && $$