Sunburst Ski Area Snow Report

182 FXUS63 KGRB 200639 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 139 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower/storm chances (20-50%) arrive this afternoon across north-central WI, spreading across the entire area tonight (40-75%). Isolated-scattered showers/storms on Friday. - While a few stronger storms could produce brief gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy downpours, widespread severe weather is not expected. A drought busting rain is not expected. - Near seasonable temps expected into next week, although some cool nights are expected over the north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026 Today through Friday...A dry start to the day with only a few mid and high clouds around. Clouds will increase through the day, with a 20-50% chance of mainly light showers, with a stray storm also possible, arriving across north-central WI this afternoon as a shortwave and push of WAA approach. Most CAMs have this area waning as it heads southeast, away from the better moisture and forcing. Anticipate additional shower and isolated storm development this evening into tonight as the shortwave and cold front move across northern WI. Prospects for severe weather are low this afternoon into tonight, with the better pool of instability to our west and the better dynamics not arriving until tonight. MUCAPE does climb up to 1000 J/kg, so a strong storm is possible with some gusty winds and small hail, especially if activity can get organized to our west and make it in central or north-central WI. On Friday, the area of showers and isolated storms will exit to our east early in the day, with only some isolated activity behind it through the morning hours. Then, as the cold front arrives in the late morning and afternoon, another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms is expected, especially across eastern WI. South/southwest winds will usher in better moisture, with dewpoints climbing into the mid-upper 60s over the east. If we are able to get some sunshine, SBCAPEs would climb up to 1500-2000 J/kg. Bulk shear does seem to be lacking though, with 0-6km shear only around 15-20 kts, along with a weak capping inversion in place, which would limit organization/strength of any storm. So a pulsy type stronger storm will be possible, mainly over eastern WI in the afternoon. While brief heavy downpours are possible in any storm (PWATs up to 1.5"), widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. High temps in the 70s are expected over northern WI, with some low 80s expected further south. Temps tonight will not be as cold with lows mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s. This Weekend...northwest flow will prevail across the Great Lakes. A weak trough and area of increased moisture will move across the area on Saturday, bringing the chance (20-45%) for some showers, especially across eastern WI. Dry conditions are expected on Sunday as high pressure spreads across the western Great Lakes. High temps are forecast be near or slightly below seasonal norms, with a couple chilly nights over the north with lows in the 40s. Next Week...dry conditions continue into Monday with the next chance of showers and storms arriving Tuesday or Wednesday with another shortwave and frontal boundary. Unfortunately, rainfall totals over the next week are not expected to help the drought conditions across the area, and most likely make them worse in spots. Temps will remain pretty steady next week, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s most days and lows in the mid 40s to low 60s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 VFR conditions prevail through Thursday evening. Skies clear out and winds become light and variable overnight, resulting in potential for patchy ground fog development through Thursday morning. However, vsbys should not dip below MVFR. Otherwise, winds at the surface shift to the southwest Thursday afternoon. Rain then arrives from the northwest toward the end of the forecast period; have thus added PROB30 mention of -SHRA in the RHI, AUW, and CWA TAF. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch AVIATION.......Goodin