Whaleback Nordic Ski Club snow report

809 FXUS61 KBOX 050555 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 155 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continue to refine summery temperatures and timing of precipitation along with the risk for thunderstorms (some could be severe) for this coming weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm to hot temperatures continue today and Saturday with dry weather persisting. - Increasing risk for showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday evening. Sunday trends somewhat warmer with periods of showers and possible thundershowers. - Dry and cooler conditions return early next week with onshore flow, before temperatures trend more summerlike by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably warm to hot temperatures continue today and Saturday with dry weather persisting. There are no notable changes to the near and short-term forecast through the daylight hours of Saturday. Confidence remains high that dry weather continues along with unseasonably warm to hot temperatures. As advertised over the past several days, the primary weather feature remains an area of high pressure centered across the southeastern CONUS, which slowly shifts offshore this weekend ahead of more unsettled conditions. Little has changed regarding temperatures aloft, with 850 mb values remaining between +13C and +15C Friday and increasing to +15C to +18C Saturday. Given a well- mixed boundary layer reaching 850-800 mb, highs should climb well into the upper 80s to lower 90s. While temperatures aloft are warmer Saturday, increasing moisture and cloud cover may temper daytime heating somewhat. Nevertheless, temperatures remain well above normal for early June, when average highs are typically in the lower 70s. A more westerly wind today should allow coastal communities to warm efficiently, while stronger southwest flow Saturday keeps southern coastal areas somewhat cooler, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dewpoints remain comfortable today in the 50s but rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday, leading to a somewhat muggier feel, though not overly oppressive. For those heading to the beaches, there is a moderate risk for rip currents Saturday along east-facing beaches of Cape Cod, ocean- facing beaches of Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard, and south-facing beaches from Point Judith, RI to Westport, MA. Always check with lifeguards regarding local rip current conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing risk for showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday evening. Sunday trends somewhat warmer with periods of showers and possible thundershowers. Confidence continues to increase that most, if not all, of the daylight hours Saturday remain dry, though a brief afternoon shower cannot be ruled out north and west of the I-91 corridor, likely associated with a prefrontal trough. Increasing heat and humidity will lead to a moderately unstable atmosphere, with CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg, though some guidance suggests locally higher values approaching 1500 J/kg. This should support convective initiation by late afternoon, though activity may hold together after sunset given modest mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. The better wind shear arrives Saturday evening, with 0-6 km bulk shear increasing to around 30-40 kt. Given this setup, a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms has been introduced for southern New England, with the primary threats being strong to damaging straight- line winds and locally heavy downpours as PWAT values climb to around 1.8 inches. CAM guidance is beginning to resolve this timeframe, though refinement in storm timing and placement is still expected. By Sunday morning, weak subsidence behind the front may allow for drier, albeit humid, conditions with a mix of clouds and sunshine. By afternoon, a more defined mid-level trough and associated shortwave energy move across southern New England, though recent guidance trends the surface low farther north into the Gulf of Maine. As a result, rainfall appears more showery and less widespread, with the greatest concentration of showers and general thunder across eastern portions of southern New England. Cooler air arrives more gradually, which may allow highs to still reach the upper 70s to lower 80s before northeast flow develops later in the day. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry and cooler conditions return early next week with onshore flow, before temperatures trend more summerlike by midweek. Conditions trend drier and cooler Monday, though some uncertainty remains regarding how quickly lingering troughing departs, which will influence temperatures and cloud cover. For now, expect cooler conditions Monday with a warming trend returning Tuesday into the middle of next week as temperatures return into the 80s. High pressure appears likely to return by Tuesday, supporting mainly dry weather through midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR conditions prevail through the period. Westerly winds around 5- 10 kt dominate through much of Friday. Sea breezes develop along the eastern MA coast around 15Z, followed by a transition to an offshore/SW flow by around 00Z Saturday. Winds Friday night veer to WSW/SW around 5-10 kt. Saturday...High confidence. VFR conditions continue. A late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible, mainly after 00Z. Southwest winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Saturday...High confidence. Today, winds remain similar to Thursdays setup, though generally expected to remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria across Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound. Across the remaining waters, winds up to 20 kt are possible through this evening, then all waters should remain at or below 15 kt on Friday and Friday night. Seas generally hold in the 2-4 ft range through Friday night. On Saturday, southwest winds increase with gusts approaching 25 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft by early afternoon. It is becoming more likely that Small Craft Advisory conditions will be needed Saturday afternoon into the weekend as these conditions develop. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dooley AVIATION...Dooley MARINE...Dooley