Belle Neige Snow Report

716 FXUS61 KBTV 210655 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 255 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 253 AM EDT Monday... No significant changes with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 253 AM EDT Monday... 1. Tranquil weather conditions expected through mid week, with patchy frost possible tonight and Tuesday night. 2. While high pressure and cool weather may continue into the weekend, a low pressure system will approach southern New England and potentially bring us periods of rain. && .DISCUSSION... As of 253 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue to cross the region early this morning. In the meantime, patchy dense fog, drizzle, and dreary skies will linger through sunrise. Conditions will then slowly improve through the day as drier air flows in behind the frontal boundary. While not as chilly and damp as yesterday, north winds will be a touch brisk with highs only getting into the mid 50s to low 60s. The remainder of the first half of the week will feature fair weather as high pressure settles to our north, keeping developing low pressure and its associated precipitation shunted well to our south. The result will be partly to mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures each day. There will be a slight warming trend through Thursday, with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s each night, except in the sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks, Northeast Kingdom, and eastern VT, where temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s. This will allow for patchy frost; subsequent shifts will need to monitor the potential for Frost Advisories. It should be noted that, as of today, these products will no longer be issued for the Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom since today is the median date of the first autumn freeze. Thus, the growing season is considered ended in these areas. KEY MESSAGE 2: No significant impacts are expected, but a beneficial rainfall is on the table for the upcoming weekend. The Friday through Sunday period remains highly uncertain for sensible weather. There is potential for dry weather to continue, but also a chance for widespread rain to occur, associated with an expected deep low pressure system that tracks northward over the western Atlantic Ocean. The 48 hour probability of precipitation from the blend of models suggests some rain is likely across south central Vermont and the Upper Valley, which has trended upward compared to 12 hours ago but similar to 24 hours ago. Otherwise, a coin flip chance across the rest of northern Vermont and northeastern New York as far north as near Plattsburgh continues, and a low (under 25%) chance of any rain is indicated to the northwest towards the International Border and St. Lawrence Valley. There have been many runs of deterministic guidance from both the GFS and ECMWF showing deformation bands of rain translating northward across much of Vermont, pinwheeling westward and then contracting back towards the south as surface low pressure stalls out/retrogrades and weakens in the Saturday-Saturday night timeframe. This idea is reflected in the six hour PoP trend, with most widespread low chances of rain centered in the Saturday morning period. Moderate rainfall amounts are possible given this type of system, especially in our southern and eastern areas. The 90th percentile (reasonable high end) shows near 1" totals possible in central Vermont increasing to near 2" in our far southern areas. Again, this type of rain would not pose any hazards but would obviously impact weekend outdoor activities. Additionally, the higher terrain, especially in the central/southern Greens, may see unseasonably strong winds with 40 to 45 MPH easterly winds at the 850 millibar level indicated by the mean of the ensemble guidance that shows the wetter/more northward low track amongst the possible scenarios. So potentially hazardous recreational conditions, when combined with rain and temperatures in the 40s, will be present this weekend. Otherwise, aside from cooler conditions associated with any rain, consistent temperatures near seasonable values should continue into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...A wide range in flight conditions continues early this morning. Northwest wind and VFR conditions are present at MSS, while winds are calm elsewhere with MVFR at BTV/PBG/RUT and LIFR at MPV/EFK/SLK. Winds will remain light enough off the deck to effectively scatter out the low clouds, and the north-northwesterly blocked flow supports going more pessimistic on prevailing LIFR, especially mountain sites and the eastern side of the Champlain Valley. Conditions should slowly improve with ceilings rising to MVFR by 15z and mostly VFR by 18z Monday at all sites. After 10-12Z, winds should be about 5 to 10 knots through much of the remainder of the period out of the north. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 253 AM EDT Monday...Near Lake Wind Advisory criteria will be in place early this morning as cold air advection develops with a cold frontal passage. North winds will generally remain 15 to 20 kt, but a few gusts to 25 kt are possible, especially across the central and southern portion of the broad lake and down towards Diamond Island. Wave heights in this region should reach 2-4 feet between 6 am and 10 am before subsiding this afternoon. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings AVIATION...Kutikoff MARINE...Hastings