Bruce Mound Ski Area snow report

206 FXUS63 KLSX 140709 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 209 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected through the end of the week, with increasing humidity and heat index values approaching 100 to 105 degrees Thursday and Friday. - Chances for scattered afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms are increasing both Thursday and Friday afternoon (30-60%). While plenty of dry time is expected both days, these showers may produce brief heavy downpours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 As we await another round of high humidity and pop-up showers/thunderstorms later in the week, at least one more day of typical summer-like conditions is expected area-wide today. This is thanks to the persistence of surface high pressure draped across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, along with an anomalously deep upper level ridge to our north. While the latter feature will drive dangerous heat across the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions, temperatures locally are expected to remain very near seasonal averages for mid July (upper 80s to near 90). Dew points are expected to creep upwards this afternoon as higher surface moisture to our east is caught up in easterly low level flow, but strong subsidence aloft should prevent showers and thunderstorms from developing locally. The primary impact of these increasing dew points is expected to be on the heat index, which may rise into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in a few locations this afternoon, particularly in southwest Illinois. After another quiet night with light winds and mostly clear skies, tomorrow is expected to be very similar in most areas, with only subtle changes to the synoptic flow pattern and local sensible weather. However, we have maintained a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Ozarks, as deeper moisture is expected to drift slightly further north, and the southern fringes of the upper ridge and subsidence are both expected to weaken very slightly. While there will be a lack of notable forcing mechanisms, we may get just enough afternoon heating to produce a few pop-up showers or weak thunderstorms in our southernmost areas, capable mainly of brief heavy downpours. While we don`t expect these storms to be widespread or long-lived enough to pose a significant flood threat, very high PWATS (1.8-2 inches) and deep warm cloud layers will support efficient rain rates. In spite of this, most areas will remain dry, and even where showers occur there will be plenty of dry time as well. We may also see a few areas with an afternoon heat index near 100 degrees, but temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 While we still do not expect an area-wide washout late in the week, the chance for afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms does appear to be increasing Thursday and Friday, resulting in an increase in precipitation probabilities to the 30-60% range in many areas both days. This is essentially a continuation of the trend described in the short term discussion regarding Wednesday`s shower/thunderstorm potential, as the upper ridge is expected to gradually weaken, and deep moisture is expected to slowly drift further and further north. Between the weakening subsidence aloft and anomalous moisture (PWATs of 1.9-2.1 inches) moving directly overhead, there is an increasing signal for diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms across a broader area Thursday afternoon, although the Ozarks continue to be slightly favored for the greatest coverage. Again, while very weak wind flow aloft and a lack of large- scale forcing mechanisms limits the threat of prolonged heavy rain or strong/severe thunderstorms, even brief pop-up showers will be capable of heavy rain rates (1-2 inches/hour), which may be a local concern in areas that have seen recent flooding. Still, plenty of dry time is expected due to both the strong diurnal component (rain is heavily favored from early afternoon to late evening), and the scattered nature of this activity. A similar setup is expected Friday, although most ensemble members push the deepest moisture and highest precipitation chances slightly northeast and into Illinois and right along the Mississippi River, with building heights and subsidence nudging back into the area from the southwest. Where these showers develop, similar threats will exist (brief heavy downpours, lightning), with showers being heavily favored in the afternoon. Again, plenty of dry time is expected both before showers begin, and in between them. Forecast confidence decreases Saturday onward, as the upper ridge is expected to retrograde slightly westward, with a weak trough digging into the Great Lakes. This opens the door for weak back-door cold fronts to dip into the area, but there is very little member-to- member agreement on the timing of any such features. This is producing much more variance in temperature/precipitation forecasts in the extended period, although we do note a very slight trend toward moderating temperatures and a reduction of PWAT anomalies Sunday onwards, and ensemble mean precipitation chances do shift eastward and lower substantially Saturday onward. Given the potential for at least a modest forcing mechanism we can`t rule out more chances for precipitation late in the period, but very little confidence exists in the specifics at this stage. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions and light winds are expected for the vast majority of the 06Z TAF period at all local terminals. The lone potential exception is a limited potential for patchy fog at river valley sites early this morning, particularly SUS/JEF/CPS. Confidence is low that this will materialize, but if it does, brief visibility reductions may lead to periods of MVFR or lower flight categories. .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRC LONG TERM...BRC AVIATION...BRC