Bruce Mound Ski Area Snow Report

990 FXUS63 KLSX 030720 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 220 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures are expected to warm back closer to seasonal averages this week. - A slow-moving cold front brings our best chances (60-80%) of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 A weak surface ridge of high pressure is centered across central Missouri early this morning and will slowly slide east through tonight. Plenty of sunshine is expected today, other than some diurnal fair-weather cumulus. The sunshine today will help high temperatures to warm into the mid 80s, just a few degrees below seasonal normals. Lows tonight are expected to drop back into the 60s beneath a mostly clear sky and light/variable winds. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026 (Tuesday - Tuesday Night) The surface ridge is expected to move far enough east by Tuesday that weak return flow will begin in its wake. The moderating trend in temperatures is therefore expected to continue as highs reach closer to the 90 degree mark. Increasing mid/high level clouds will help dampen the warmup slightly during the day, but then aid in keeping temperatures milder Tuesday night as lows only drop back into the mid 60s to low 70s from east to west. (Wednesday - Sunday) A broad longwave trough is forecast to carve out across the northern Plains/southern Canada by midweek. Multiple impulses are expected to move across the base of this trough, with each one inducing weak cyclogenesis along a slow-moving cold front. This boundary is forecast to move into portions of the area by Wednesday afternoon. Surface convergence along this boundary in addition to increasing low-level moisture convergence and mid/upper level diffluence aloft is expected to yield showers and thunderstorms. The best chances (60- 80%) through Wednesday night are across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois in close proximity to the expected location of the surface cold front. There may be at least a low threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours given fairly strong westerly flow aloft for early August. Joint probabilities on the LREF for at least 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30+ knots of deep-layer shear are 40-50% early Wednesday evening in northeast Missouri/west central Illinois. Precipitable water values approach 1.8" along the front (>90th percentile of climatology). The slow equatorward progress of the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday in conjunction with a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet (850-hPa meridional/v component of wind >90th percentile) also suggest at least the possibility of locally heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding. There is pretty good consensus that the front will move toward southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois, but may tend to stall out. Deterministic guidance has a weaker low-level jet Thursday night, but increasing moisture convergence may help yield an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity along/north of the front. The location of the boundary Friday through the weekend becomes cloudier with time. Multiple possibilities exist. Some deterministic guidance pushes the front back north, which would likely yield warmer, but dry conditions. Another scenario is that the front lingers across the area and help provide the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms. The boundary also could be modulated farther south due to antecedent rounds of convection. The bottom line is that forecast specifics, both in terms of temperatures and precipitation chances, are uncertain right now. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026 Aside from MVFR/IFR fog that will likely develop tonight at most of the terminals aside from KSTL, VFR conditions prevail through the period. High surface pressure dominates our sensible weather, keeping winds light and variable through the morning before favoring an easterly direction in the afternoon as the high slowly departs east. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gosselin LONG TERM...Gosselin AVIATION...MRB