Hardscrabble Snow Report

414 FXUS63 KLSX 300830 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain will overspread the area from late tonight through Thursday, and continue Thursday night. Rain is expected to end from north to south from early Friday morning through the afternoon. One to two inches of rain is expected, primarily across central and northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Locally higher amounts are possible. - Above normal temperatures will continue today and Thursday for most of the area. A cold front will move through the area by Friday morning, bringing below normal temperatures back to the area for the weekend into next week. - Heavy rain upstream may cause flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers rivers as well as northeast Missouri tributaries this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 A closed upper level low over Arizona will drift east-northeast through Thursday. This low is in the process of ingesting residual tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Polo, and it will spread this moisture into the Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days. The upper level system will force low level cyclogenesis over the Great Plains as it moves east-northeast today and tonight, resulting in frontogenesis over southeast Nebraska and Iowa. Guidance shows the front remaining nearly stationary stretching from central Kansas through southeast Nebraska into Iowa into tonight. The front then starts drifting slowly to the southeast on Thursday. Initial showers this morning across parts of central an northeast Missouri into west central Illinois match up nicely with an area of weak low level moisture convergence ahead of the approaching low. This activity should weaken and shift north through the day as forcing shifts farther north and west closer to the front. A few short-range models are redeveloping some showers this afternoon in central Missouri. Soundings show a pretty substantial dry layer near the surface, but also an area of elevated instability in a pocket of moisture convergence this afternoon. Have therefore decided to a chance for showers this afternoon and early evening in central Missouri. Rain chances shift north and west tonight, mainly out of our forecast area into northwest Missouri and Iowa closer to the front. However, a northern stream short wave will dip into the Midwest late tonight into Thursday which will begin pushing the front southeast. Meanwhile the closed upper low over the Plains will be weakening and will slowly be absorbed into the mean flow aloft. The moisture from the remnants of Polo will spread southeast Thursday ahead of the front as the now open wave moves into the lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valley Thursday into Thursday night. Models are still advertising a good bit of rain as the front passes and the trough moves across the area. However precipitable water amounts are forecast to be highest today and tonight well west of our area across northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and into Iowa. P-wat values drop off Thursday as the front moves southeast, and the synoptic-scale forcing weakens as the upper low opens up and gets pulled into the mean flow. With that in mind, storm total QPF amounts have backed off a bit over our area, now ranging from around 1/2 inch in southwest Illinois to about 2 inches in northeast Missouri with the majority of that falling Thursday and Thursday night. Forecast soundings remain supportive of heavy rain with tall skinny CAPE profiles and warm cloud depths in excess of 12kft. The front still looks progressive though, so training should be minimal. This is backed up by storm total. There are a few streaks of 2+ inch QPF Thursday night in the REFS LPMM, however if this occurs over a 6-12hr period as depicted in the model the soils and streams should handle it without widespread flooding issues. Will therefore continue to refrain from issuing any flood headlines at this time. Today will likely be the warmest day of the next 7 despite a decent amount of mid and high cloud cover. A warm start to the morning in the mid and upper 60s, deep mixing, and a warm southerly flow will produce highs in the upper 80s to around 90 today, except in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois where thicker and lower clouds as well as a few showers will suppress temperatures. Cooler temperatures will spread southeast as the front moves into the area with more widespread rain on Thursday. 80s remain likely along and east of I-44 in Missouri and I-55 in Illinois with 70s filtering in farther west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 The latest GFS and ECMWF now push the surface front south of the forecast area by 12Z Friday, although the mid-upper level trough axis is hanging back over western Missouri. Low level dry air lags behind the surface front according to forecast soundings, and the broad-scale synoptic lift provided by the trough continues to produce light rain along and south of I-70 Friday morning. Dry air does eventually filter through the area by Friday afternoon/evening as a broad, cool high pressure system builds into the Midwest and western Great Lakes Region. The remainder of the forecast through Tuesday looks seasonably cool and dry. Daytime temperatures drop into the 60s and low 70s with overnight lows primarily in the 50s. A reinforcing shot of cold air drops into the Mississippi Valley as a second, stronger Canadian high moves into the Midwest Sunday night and Monday. Guidance shows this cold airmass producing some of the coldest overnight lows of the season so far, with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s both Monday and Tuesday morning. Will continue to monitor the longer term river flood threat on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers, as well as the tributaries. Ensemble hydrologic model output almost universally puts the IQR of river stages above flood at many of our main-stem river points by late this weekend or early next week, mainly due to rainfall well upstream. To be honest, I take this with a large grain of salt as only a small amount of the forecast QPF has fallen at this point. The vast majority of the rainfall that`s being forecast and fed into the river models has yet to materialize, and there are many factors which will affect the levels to which our rivers ultimately rise. Still, there is potential for flooding should some of the heavier rainfall forecasts be realized. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will continue across north- central/northeastern MO into west-central IL at times overnight before lifting northward mid/late Wednesday morning. KUIN is most likely to be impacted, but outside of a brief heavier shower or two, rain will be light and permit VFR visibilities. Otherwise, dry and VFR flight conditions are expected, with the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms not arriving until beyond the TAF period. Light south/southeasterly winds will become southwesterly during the daytime Wednesday, before backing again to southeasterly. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carney LONG TERM...Carney AVIATION...Pfahler