Hardscrabble snow report

799 FXUS63 KLSX 280830 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 330 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Motorists may encounter patchy dense fog in river valleys early this morning, particularly in southwest IL and east-central MO. - Seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected today, but scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms return to the Ozarks and central Missouri tomorrow and possibly Saturday. Lightning and brief bursts of heavy rain are the main hazards. - A steady drying trend is expected next week, with a continuation of near average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 In the immediate term, quiet conditions are generally in place with precipitation currently remaining well to the southwest. However, in spite of widespread cirrus cover, sporadic surface observations reveal that fog is beginning to develop in some low-lying river valleys, especially across east-central MO and southwest Illinois. While we don`t expect fog to become widespread enough to warrant a dense fog advisory locally, we can`t rule out a few instances of 1/4 mile visibility, especially across south-central Illinois. In fact, areas just to our east ARE included in a dense fog advisory, so motorists traveling in that direction should prepare for a steadily increasing potential for dense fog. While there will still be a couple of opportunities for showers in a few places before the end of the week, today is expected to be mostly dry across our forecast area thanks to an intrusion of dry air from the northeast behind a weak back-door cold front. This feature has essentially pushed all of the rich Gulf moisture (50+ percentile precipitable water) back to the southwest, keeping today`s showers and thunderstorms across mainly southwest Missouri. While a broad arc of showers and weak thunderstorms currently in this area will gradually move north through the day, it will be continuously battling dry air as it does so, and will likely struggle to reach our area until sometime overnight or tomorrow morning. As a result, expect a seasonably warm and dry day today, with highs generally in the mid 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Over the course of the day tomorrow, an elongated weak upper trough will continue to slowly lift north and into the Missouri River basin, and will push the previously mentioned higher PWAT air north with it. While this more humid airmass will be constantly battling the much drier airmass to the northeast, eventually showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to once again move into parts of central and southeast Missouri, likely by sometime tomorrow morning. These areas are expected to see off and on showers throughout the day tomorrow, but exactly how much further north these showers reach is a bit less certain. There are some indications in high-resolution guidance (particularly the HRRR) that a few convective cells may reach as far northeast as the St. Louis metro, although these solutions are generally in the minority. In any case, we do expect that at least some of this activity will move into our portion of the Ozarks tomorrow at a minimum. As has been the case with all of this activity, lightning and brief bursts of heavy rain will be the most likely hazards in the strongest cells, but flooding and severe thunderstorm hazards not expected due to a number of factors (short duration of heavy rain rates, weak wind shear). Meanwhile, the rest of the area can expect to see another day of seasonably warm temperatures, with perhaps a bit more opaque cloud cover that keeps temperatures ~5 degrees cooler than today. BRC && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 From Saturday through mid-week, the synoptic pattern across the CONUS will feature a persistent "Omega Block", with a highly amplified upper ridge across the central U.S. and Canada bookended by troughs/closed lows. The eastern trough will be reinforced by a digging shortwave across the Great Lakes over the weekend, and this is expected to drive the previously discussed dry air and surface high pressure back to the southwest. Because of this, it appears that our potential for additional showers and thunderstorms will progressively decrease, although we do maintain some low-end chances for lingering showers throughout the day Saturday. Otherwise, precipitation probabilities drop below 20% Sunday onward, and by Tuesday, ensemble mean precipitable water values drop below the 25th percentile as well. While there is some uncertainty regarding exactly when our precipitation chances will conclusively end along our southwestern fringes, the trend for drier conditions over time is clear. Meanwhile, this pattern will lock in semi-permanent east- northeasterly low level flow, which climatologically favors milder temperatures, or at the very least limits our ceiling for heat. Not surprisingly, ensemble temperature forecasts maintain near average temperatures throughout the forecast period with narrow spreads, although it should be noted that previous suggestions of a noteworthy cooling trend have also largely diminished as well. Instead, current indications are that temperatures will remain largely steady-state for several days, with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s, with perhaps a slow decreasing trend in overnight lows as drier air and more favorable radiative cooling conditions become more firmly established. BRC && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 Confidence in fog development tonight is low given intermittent high cloud cover. If fog does develop, river valleys and areas that saw rain today will be the most likely to be affected. Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, mostly dry and VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Jaja && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX