Burke Mountain Snow Report

316 FXUS61 KBTV 310625 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 225 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 223 AM EDT Monday... Forecast for broader rains Monday evening into Tuesday continues to trend southwards. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 223 AM EDT Monday... 1. Dry today, and light shower activity possible on Tuesday. 2. A vigorous low will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. 3. Trending drier into the weekend with a few chances for lingering showers as an upper low departs to the east. && .DISCUSSION... As of 223 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread fog across Vermont and northern New York will give way to supremely comfortable weather today. Patchy mid to high level clouds will continue to stream along sluggish boundary to our southwest. So the Northeast Kingdom should be nice and sunny, while the North Country sees a bit more cloud cover. Temperatures will rise into the 70s during the afternoon with light winds. For this evening and overnight, the range of high res and global models remain in better consensus of a southward position of elevated convection along the aforementioned quasi-stationary front. The high res guidance the last several days likely had some convective feedback, and now that we`re closer, those models have less time to get carried away. There should still be a swath of moderate rain along the borderlines with our neighboring forecast offices across Vermont and northern New York and little to no rain across far northern Vermont. This also lowers the likelihood of thunder. Pulled QPF back even further from the previous forecast. About a third to half inch is likely in southern Rutland/Windsor counties, and approaching the southern Adirondacks and far souther St. Lawrence Counties, and just a couple hundredths at Vermont`s international border. During the evening and overnight, a trough will begin to develop while surface pressures rise along Coastal New England. This appears like it will trap moisture along eastern slopes. If forecast soundings weren`t too dry near the surface, I would think this would be a drizzle/mist type set up. Flow aloft remains somewhat fast, so perhaps there some forcing that produces very light rain showers that linger into Tuesday night. KEY MESSAGE 2: The more potent system appears to be the Wednesday system. A trough tracking across the Northern Plains will eject east as it gets caught between a closed upper low north of the Great Lakes and an upper high in the southeastern US. Favorable conditions for height falls will allow the development of a strengthening surface low across the Great Lakes quickly moving east by Wednesday afternoon. Initially, we`ll still have high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes holding dry stable air east and west-northwest flow aloft still maintaining the line between this dry air and warm, moist air to our south. As the surface low develops a warm front will shift east late morning into the early afternoon. Light rain should push west to east, but any rain from it will be tempered by the low-level dry air. That warm front will shift just north of the international border, and then the surface low will follow Wednesday night. Increasing instability (mostly aloft) and sharp frontogenetic forcing against stubborn high pressure will produce thunderstorms that will be capable of heavy rainfall. The degree of elevated instability remains in question, and there will almost certainly still be some wobbles in the exact track as we`ve seen for Tuesday`s system depending on convective processes and where exactly low pressure will track along a still present sluggish thermal/moisture gradient. KEY MESSAGE 3: Our Wed/Thu system will occlude Thursday night off the southeast New England Coast, dragging its parent low southeast with it. Showers look to continue as wrap around moisture lingers across Vermont, with some drying in northern New York. The upper low will drift over northern Maine by Friday keeping cyclonic flow northeasterly flow entrenched. While most of the late week and weekend looks to be on the drier side, isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers during the day will be possible, mainly over eastern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Current precipitation chances are around 35-50%, with the exception of the higher terrain which currently have PoPs to 60-70%. Any daytime shower activity will wane by the evenings. Skies look to remain on the cloudy side Friday into Saturday. Friday looks to be the best chances for rain in the late week and weekend with rain chances decrease each day towards next week. Temperatures will generally be seasonable in the 60s and 70s, but there is a chance for some lower temperatures than current guidance is suggesting across eastern Vermont should more clouds, and precipitation develop. Overnight lows will trend cooler into the weekend towards the mid 40s to low 50s as subtle ridging and some radiational cooling nights are to be expected heading into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...A moisture gradient is becoming washed out in a line from Lebanon, NH to Massena, NY. To the northeast, widespread dense fog has formed at EFK, with vicinity fog noted at PBG, and already ongoing fog at FSO as well in the northern Champlain Valley. Satellite shows this fog seeping south and west towards MPV/BTV. Into NY, fog is also already evident at MSS/SLK, with some bouncing at SLK due to due some slight mixing aloft as the moisture gradient is centered over the terminal. There is medium to high confidence for fog at all terminals, outside of RUT. RUT may stay fog free tonight as they are on the south side of the gradient and may hold onto a very light drainage wind. Have used TEMPO grids for IFR at sites not already entrenched in fog (PBG/BTV/MPV). Highest confidence in prevailing fog at most sites will be from 08-12Z. Prevailing fog at BTV/PBG may be delayed until closer to 09-10Z, with bouncing IFR beginning around 08Z, though there is lower confidence that fog may move in for BTV as early as 07Z, though did not get this aggressive in this forecast. Conditions look to improve back towards VFR in the 13-14Z period, outside of PBG/BTV, where improvements will be slightly earlier between 12-13Z should fog develop. Quiet VFR aviation conditions are expected after 14Z through 00Z with mainly clear skies, and light and variable terrain driven winds. Clouds back build in after 00Z tonight. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes DISCUSSION...Danzig/Haynes AVIATION...Danzig