Camp 10 Snow Report

506 FXUS63 KGRB 060630 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 130 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog, locally dense, will persist through late this morning, especially over eastern Wisconsin. - There is a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Friday. Several rounds of showers and storms then expected this weekend through early next week, though confidence in storm timing and severity remains low. - Near normal high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Fog... Patchy ground fog has already begun developing overnight due to decoupling winds and clear skies, reducing visibilities to 1 SM or less in some areas. CAMs continue to show a strong signal for areas of locally dense fog persisting through late this morning, before dispersing within a few hours of sunrise. Will continue to observe trends over the next few hours to determine whether or not an advisory will be needed. Rain/storm chances... Will continue to message potential for several rounds of rain/storms late this week through early next week, though the synoptic pattern remains volatile. However, details continue to come into focus for storm timing and severity on Friday as upper perturbation interacts with cold FROPA at the surface during the afternoon and evening. Corridor of decent instability (1,000 to 1,200 J/kg) builds just ahead of the front during this time, with potential for storms to start off surface- based. Gusty winds look to be the main hazard with any strong or severe storms as bulk shear exceeds 30 knots and inverted-V profiles tap into 35 to 40 knot winds at the top of the dry layer. Severe threat decreases further south and east. Beyond Friday, general story hasn`t changed much as we remain on the northern periphery of western ridge and more moist/unstable airmass. As such, better chances for more organized convection look to remain off to our south where better thermodynamics reside. ML guidance continues to highlight southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and even into the Ohio Valley for the greatest severe threat. In our neck of the woods, multiple embedded shortwaves riding the 500 mb wave train should be enough to kick off several rounds of showers and non-severe storms this weekend through early next week. Though predictability of timing and coverage of showers/storms remains low this far out due to the nature of the synoptic pattern, question that arises will be excessive rainfall potential due to repeated rounds of precip. Similar to the severe threat, better moisture looks to be holed up to our south in proximity to the low, though some long-range guidance suggests the boundary stalling out over southern Wisconsin. Current thinking is that any heavy rain potential will hinge on training storms and mesoscale processes. Will continue to monitor in the coming days, as WPC begins highlighting a marginal ERO for Day 5. Temperatures/smoke... Temperatures to read near normal in the low to mid 80s through the weekend as upper flow flattens out and weakens. Humidity levels will be comfortable, with dewpoints reading in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another plume of elevated wildfire smokes works its way into Wisconsin behind the front on Friday, though significant impacts to visibility or air quality are expected. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1016 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Skies have cleared across northeast Wisconsin this evening. High clouds will invade the region after midnight, but doubtful they will have a significant impact on temps. Other than ground fog, good flying weather is expected through the TAF period. There remains a good signal remains for fog developing over eastern WI thanks to clearing skies and light winds. Visibility less than 1SM in play at GRB/ATW/MTW, with 1-3SM vsby possible at RHI/AUW/CWA. Fog will dissipate by 14Z-15Z on Thursday. Rest of day will feature FEW-SCT VFR fair weather clouds, especially over eastern WI. Skies then clear again for Thursday evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Goodin AVIATION.......MPC