Candy Mountain Ski Area Snow Report

450 FXUS63 KGRB 170641 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 141 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Air quality and visibility will continue to be degraded by smoke from wildfires burning across northern Minnesota and southwest Ontario through this morning. Smoke will start to clear from west to east through the day. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening (60-80% chance). A few storms could become strong to severe, mainly across northern WI, with threats of damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy rain. - Another round of thunderstorms is possible (50-70% chance) Monday. There is increase confidence that a few of these storms could be strong to severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Smoke Trends...Blanket of dense wildfire smoke continues to sit over the region early this morning impact air quailty and visibility. Expectations is that has winds veer around to the southwest today smoke will clear out from southwest to northeast. For areas in central WI clearing is expected to begin late this morning (9-11AM) while areas in far northeast WI and along the lakeshore may not see much improvement until 7-9PM this evening. Unfortunately, the reprieve from the smoke will be relatively short as RAP/HRRR/RRFS show a second wave of smoke overtaking much of the forecast area Saturday as winds turn northwesterly behind a cold front. There is some uncertainty with how dense this second round of smoke may be due to fire behavior over the next 48 hours, but smoke models are generally less aggressive with concentrations this weekend that what we have seen the last two days. For next week periods of smoke may continue to cycle over the region any time winds are persistently our of the northwest to northeast, while persistently southerly winds will bring generally more clear conditions. Thunderstorm Chance...Mid-level WV imagery shows a few subtle short- waves moving across western and central WI early this morning spurring on a few isolated showers. As these waves move east some CAMs show an increase in showers this morning over east-central and northeast WI where surface winds are more convergent. However, with a lack in instability don`t expect much organized thunderstorm development with this round. A second period of isolated thunderstorms is possible this afternoon, mainly across northern WI as a deepening low over Ontario draws a warm front northward. South of this front increase instability is expected with MLCAPE increase to 1000-1500 J/kg. An upper jet streak will also result in increase deep layer shear and elongated hodographs which could aid in storm organization and lead to at least an isolated hail and damaging wind threat. However, forcing for ascent appears limit through this afternoon, so it may be a struggle to get any storms to fully take advantage of this environment. Third period of note today is late this evening and overnight as a sharp cold front sweeps across the area. There is uncertainty with how any preceding convection may modify the environment, but CAMs show enough instability to support scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front some of which may be strong to marginally severe. Low level shear will be maximized across northern WI, near the intersection of the warm and cold fronts. It is this area where there is a low-end (2% chance) for a brief tornado with any storms along or just ahead of the front, however, LCLs are rather high (1000+ m) which due to the dry boundary layer which does limit the tornado threat. As storms move east overnight they may tend to become more elevated with hail and sporadic damaging wind gusts becoming the main hazards. Once these storms clear the area tonight dry conditions are expected through for the weekend. Monday will be the next day to focus on for possible thunderstorms as a dynamic upper short-wave/anomalous jet streak are progged to eject southeast out of the Canadian prairie and across the western Great Lakes. As these features overspread the region deep layer shear will increase to 45-50kts. At the surface southwesterly winds will increase through the day and advect a plum of upper 60s to low 70s dew points into the region. This moist air mass will be overspread by an EML with steep mid-level laps rates resulting in strong MUCAPE values (2000+ J/kg). The combination of strong instability and shear will create a parameter space supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night. However, exactly how convection will evolve is uncertain as dominate storm mode is uncertain. Additional there is some uncertainty with how any elevated smoke could impact destabilization during the day. Beyond Monday shower and storm chances are low (10-15%) through much of next week as a drier air mass settles in over the forecast area. Temperature Trends...With southerly winds today and clearing smoke temperatures will trend hot again with highs forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. Behind a cold front temps will moderate, but remain a few degrees above normal this weekend. Monday will see similar temperatures as today as southerly winds help highs back into the upper 80s. A cooler, drier airmass is then favored by the middle of next week leading to generally at or slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Smoke will continue to be the main aviation impact overnight into Friday morning. The smoke will continue to create IFR/MVFR vsbys into tonight, but as winds turn S/SW on Friday, the smoke will exit the area from southwest to northeast through the late morning and afternoon. Surface obs may also continue to show MVFR ceilings at times, however, many of these ceilings are tied to smoke rather than clouds. Other VFR/MVFR clouds will continue to push across the area late this evening as a area of showers and storms slowly spreads into the area. In addition to the smoke, the area of showers and storms over central WI will continue to slowly work northeast toward the area. Have continued with TEMPO groups for showers overnight into early Friday. But confidence remains low if any thunder will impact the TAF sites, so will not include any thunder after 06z. Will continue to monitor trends. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms will move into central and north central WI Friday evening. Light winds are expected overnight, with S/SW winds of 5-15 kts expected on Friday. .KOSH... IFR visibilities from smoke will continue to impact KOSH overnight into Friday morning, then the smoke will move out of the area Friday afternoon. The thicker smoke is likely to move back into the area at times this weekend as flow turns back to the north. Surface obs will also continue to show MVFR ceilings at times, however, these ceilings are tied to smoke rather than clouds. Other VFR/MVFR clouds will push across the area late this evening associated with the area of showers and storms to the west. Models continue to indicate that scattered light showers and isolated storms are possible after midnight through Friday morning. Will continue with a TEMPO group for showers from 09- 13z, but spotty additional activity is possible later in the day. But most of the day does look dry. Light winds are expected tonight, with S/SW winds of 6-13 kts expected on Friday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......Bersch