Cockaigne Ski Resort Snow Report

014 FXUS61 KPBZ 020620 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 220 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast through the weekend. Frost potential early next week is looking more likely. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers return with a Friday cold front, with no notable threats for heavy rain or severe thunderstorms. 2) Cooler and mainly dry from this weekend into early next week. Frost is a possibility Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, mainly northeast of Pittsburgh. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A trough over the central Plains will begin to eject east today as the trough lifts into the OH Valley during the day on Friday. A ridge will be present over the southeast/eastern CONUS as this will slowly impede and weaken the front as it approaches. In fact, the northern end of the rain shield the ensembles are advertising seems to shear out and dissipate the precipitation a bit. The NBM shows roughly 50% to 70% of exceeding 0.25" over in our Ohio counties but its more around 30% to 50% for the PA and WV counties. This makes sense as the front seems to deteriorate by the time it begins to push into PA. That said, the probs for SB CAPE to even exceed 250 J/Kg is only 30% to 50% and this area is southeast of Pittsburgh. The other factor is that the SPC only has a general thunder area for the area south of I-70. The WPC does not have a marginal outlook for the area for Friday either. Thus no impacts are expected, although, the 850 MB winds advertise a 30 to 40 knot LL Jet. This might be enough to get a few wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots through the day today but that would be the extent. Also the NBM probs give a 30% to 50% probability for wind gusts above 25 mph and even higher on the ridges. KEY MESSAGE 2... Model ensembles indicate broad upper troughing should persist across the NE CONUS from the weekend into the middle of next week. A southern stream shortwave could bring a few showers to areas south and east of Pittsburgh on Sunday. This disturbance would be followed by an influx of cooler air into the region, dropping temperatures below climatology early next week while another run of dry weather begins thanks to high pressure. One thing to watch will be the potential for frost both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings to the northeast of Pittsburgh, as well as in the usual Laurel Highland/northern West Virginia cold spots. The NBM paints a 50% to 75% chance of low temperatures colder than 37 degrees north of US-422 both mornings - which would be chilly enough for at least patchy frost given clear and calm overnight conditions. Temperatures from Wednesday on should build back towards more seasonal values. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR is expected through most of the night with relatively light winds and slowly lowering ceilings through dawn. A cold front is expected to push east and bring showers into the region by the 14Z to 16Z timeframe. Will then expected MVFR cigs and vis with the approaching showers. Through the coming day, expected the restrictions to continue into the afternoon with the moistening of the atmosphere, LIFR cigs may develop as soon as the 17Z to 19Z period across the area. Conditions are expected to improve after 00Z tonight with most locations seeing an end of the rainfall by 06Z. Winds are expected to be southwest through the overnight and into the coming day. With the low level jet in place, some sites could see some wind gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will then shift to the northwest by the 20Z to 22Z period. Outlook... Boundary may stall just south of I-70 with some potential restrictions Sat and Sun at the southern terminals. Otherwise, VFR is progged outside of any morning fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger