Cockaigne Ski Resort Snow Report

122 FXUS61 KPBZ 150650 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 250 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch could be need along and south of I-70. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The next thunderstorm cluster is favored to cross late tonight into Sunday morning, posing a flash flood and limited wind threat. 2) Varying storm and hazardous weather risks for Sunday afternoon/evening. 3) After lingering rain chances dissipate Monday, there is fairly high confidence in dry weather until the next system arrives Wednesday/Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A thunderstorm cluster is expected to develop near northern IL into Saturday morning that will eventually travel ESE through the lower Great Lakes in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave. Any severe risks associated with damaging wind reside in an earlier arrival (Sat aftn/eve) that sees the MCS driving SE through the far eastern OH zones (Muskingum/Coshocton Counties) along the CAPE gradient. This is dependent on anything that develops ahead of the MCS as the severe threat shows less confidence in occurring. Recent runs of the CAMs suggest the threat being pushed more into the overnight. This focuses more on the flooding threat. Looking at 1 HR FFG guidance across the most likely area shows 1.2 to 1.4 FFG. Its worth mentioning that the NBM mean paints some 1.5 to 1.7 precip amounts along I-70 and south. let along the area in the higher quartile will easily surpass the 1 HR FFG. At this time, may be leaning towards a Flood Watch. KEY MESSAGE 2... Stable air develops in the wake of the morning MCS Sunday that could generally last most of the day and limit any activity in the afternoon/evening to spotty, sub-severe coverage. However, there remains a low probability that enough clearing occurs in the wake for afternoon destabilization resulting in SBCAPE values rising to 1000-1800 J/kg in a 25-30kt sheared environment. If there is enough lift in the lingering NW flow, a few instances of severe storms with damaging wind can`t be ruled out along with non-zero flood risks where rain previously fell. The CAMs are showing some development Sunday afternoon and evening but it can be argued that the strength of the convection on Sunday evening is dependent on early morning convection. KEY MESSAGE 3... Scattered showers and low probability thunderstorms may linger within the increasingly stabilizing environment Sunday night into Monday. However, high pressure building in from the west under drier NW flow favors a drying trend in storm activity by Monday evening that lasts generally til Wednesday. Though timing can change, the next system featuring shower/thunderstorm chances favors the mid to latter week period next week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Skies overnight will be mainly clear with the exception of a few mid clouds. The clear skies and light winds has resulted in some fog that has developed across the area. This is expected to dissipate by 13Z. Have added restrictions at nearly every site to cover the reduction in visibility. Through the day, expect some low cumulus clouds to develop. The next disturbance to affect the area will arrive towards the end of the TAF period. Locations such as ZZV and HLG will see some convection develop and have added a PROB30 to cover the thunderstorm potential at the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Restrictions with rain will likely linger through Sunday with general improvement on Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ020-021- 029-031-073>078. OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ050-059. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001>004- 012-021-509>512. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...Shallenberger